CIK62

Expanding on my Summer Banter post of 8/20, #669-----we now are at:    441positive surplus/280days = +1.58degs. for the year to date.  I subtracted 37 from surplus there, to correct for August, which was actually -1.2degs.

So we need another 913-441 = 472 in the next 85 days, or an average of +5.6degs., to become warmest year ever.  We could get as far as Nov. 20 at this rate---we'll see.  If we do it, it will be with an incongruous BN summer!

CFSv2 has no 5-day period that averages BN for the next 45 days.  It estimates a +6 degree departure here over that time.

Did you know that the average age for an all time warm monthly record is about 30 years, but for the coldest monthly record it is 120 years!   The most recent coldest monthly record is 83 years ago---Feb. 1934.    We probably will struggle just to get closer than 2 degrees or so of any of these 12 coldest monthly records, since this represents the bias we would have to overcome just to reach the original 30-year norms of 1900.

Seems that only mid-Oct. has a chance for a few BN days. CFSv2 is back to a furnace into mid-Nov.  Next 45-day period looks +4degs.

The only thing holding the CFS monthlies from a thermal runaway, seems to be the simultaneous cold pool of ocean water to our east, which it is also predicting.  But the model itself shows that cold water to wane by the winter.  No month is showing up now as BN, for the next 9 months.  (as usual)

ESP really shows no BN 500mb heights outside of the immediate 3 days.  The rest of the next 45 days are normal or above.  Next 45-day period looks to be +4degs.

Meanwhile, the CFS has the current 5-day period as BN but no other for the next 45 days.  Of course no 10-day period is BN at all.

I was at work in Lower Manhattan, over the river actually and I do not remember any winds.  The HW was kept for the open seas nearby only, Gloria was falling apart.

And you think we had it bad with this heat/humidity:

http://www.weather.gov/lot/2017sept_heat

Or how about traveling to get your suntan in a place like this:  Choose today's 12Z output.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMIA       --------latest GFS tries to throw some of this our way 10/11-15.

Judging by the GFS and CMC, there will no more precipitation this month---as the temperature stays above normal everyday, save the 30th. Boring but enjoyable.

Well GFS just pitched a perfect game with the 0Z, no precipitation for all 16 days, and maybe a return to normal temperatures after Maria misses the 28th.

Normal 850mb temps. now are 12C >>>9C by Oct. 1, and we seem to stay above that almost exclusively.

Next 5 day period to average BN, temperature wise, not till start of Oct. now.

DAVE SCHWARTZ OBIT

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/01/business/media/dave-schwartz-63-dies-was-weather-channel-meteorologist.html?_r=0

Hot in the city

 

TEB: 96

NYC: 94

EWR: 97

LGA: 94

JFK: 97

ISP: 94

New Bnswk: 96

TTN: 93

ACY: 93

PHL: 95

How often does JFK beat out CPK during the summer for highest daily temp. in area. (or tie with EWR)    Does anyone here know for certain what the 'highest' low temp. ever was for CPK.    I have seen 84,  and also 86,87  spoken about here at one time or another.