CIK62

Rossby Wave Train gets rid of our friendly s.e. Canada trough during last 10 days of July into August---so get ready for longest HW of summer to coinside with highest average temps.

That rubber room and intravenous thorazine did not seem to calm and cool that GFS. Now it has an ongoing 8 day heatwave [6/17---6/24] with not one, but two 100 degree days to boot. Asbestos Suits will be at a premium lol! Meteorologists with a second degree in neurosurgery are discussing a lobotomy as further treatment. The GEFS is much lower all the way. I have been warning for some time that the Rossby Wave Train eliminates our sympathetic, southeast Canadian trough and has the whole hemisphere going N or AN (except for a little area in Siberia) through Sept.

And wasn't 1955 our hottest summer ever (at least JY+A) up to that time? Just a coincidence, I hope---there are many factors involved in any seasonal outlook. .

6/22 and onward: 92, 92, 95, 95, 97, 99, ......... For Dallas, Tx? No! It's for us---via the GFS. The GEFS says subtract a good 10 degrees from these so do not worry.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started. It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees. The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

Once BN period starts near the Dec. 10th., it lasts till the New Year, when AN or just Normal temps. return---------probably muted by a hopefully large, thick snow blanket by that time. I have not seen the 'Next 45' this cold>>>>>6BN in recent memory. I hope this is not a CFS headfake. Also since next 2 weeks look to be +5, the period after the 10th. would need to be 11BN to finish 6BN!. FANTASY TERRITORY

EURO WEEKLIES [11/23] have record cold near Christmas, then flip by 50 degrees !!! for NYD. GFS slowly rotates the Polar Vortex to the east (from over Asia) and seems to want to get it here (over Hudson Bay) by mid-Dec. Go to Instant Weather Maps to see this. Image will not link.

We can use the next 20 to 25 (12/09 period looks OK) days as a Tax Write Off loss to the winter. Even Joe Besardi not cheering it anymore for now. BUT I MUST WARN EVERYONE THAT THE CFS BANS THE RED HUES FOR 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS, CONTINENT WIDE, STARTING WITH JAN., BEFORE BURNING OUR FERNS IN JULY/AUG.

Only hope now for Dec. is on,either side of the 12th., for a few days each way. CFS came in warmer again. Next 15 days. Could be worse, I suppose.

Nov. 28 to Dec. 21 looks like dead winter meat, that will spoil while hanging on the fence. Maybe brief normalcy near the 10th. Looks good thru first week of Jan. after astronomical start of winter though. Next 7 days meanwhile are averaging 45degs. now, maybe a +1 or +2 to kick off this AN period.

Next 15 days look like a bore and little more. We keep showing up in a dry slot and temps. are going nowhere.