Ozarkwx

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Everything posted by Ozarkwx

  1. Have you guys stepped outside to spend 15 minutes looking at the meteor shower? Very very impressive. I am pretty far away from metropolitan Eureka Springs, so the light pollution is minimal.
  2. Yes it will be a long 8 days for anyone who subconsciously (or consciously) organizes their computer schedule around the model output times and pores over the notoriously fickle 7+ day solutions. At least now it does finally appear their is some potential wintry intrigue ahead (and sooner than +300 hours this time).
  3. Yea, saw that lol. Now let's see what kind of entertainment the 300 hour GFS offers us on this run.
  4. Not too worried about the lack of a good set up yet, There is still a long way to go. Let the best set ups come when the colder part of winter is here rather than "waste" them when temps are marginal at best. Meanwhile, pretty great weekend weather for almost anything outside.
  5. This evening south of Eureka Springs. Never seen anything like these twins (do these have a name?). Fascinating to consider what conditions existed to create a pair of these. No other cloud build ups in the area.
  6. The NHC simply does not want to move that track much further west than HWY. 65 (LZK to SGF)...not sure why exactly when the Euro, GFS and NAM are clustered between Fayetteville and Tulsa. Reading between the lines of the Tulsa discussion I get the feeling they are chomping at the bit to extend the QPF further west. But it seems they are constrained by the protocols that require them to follow the NHC and probably also the HPC. Anyway, looks promising for most of us in the area if the model consensus verifies. ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE ISAAC HOLDS THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND NOW SHOW A TRACK WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHEST WEST...WITH A TRACK BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM ALL SHOW A TRACK ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED JUST ON THE OKLAHOMA SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE...WE HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND HAVE GONE JUST BELOW THE HIGH GFS MOS POP NUMBERS. WILL FOLLOW HPC QPF FOR NOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT QPF NUMBERS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAAC WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
  7. Looks like the GFS has been joined by the Euro in bringing Isaac W in TX/OK
  8. Sure would be nice to see something like this verify. A decaying TD right over JoMo's house, lol. Although, a bird in hand......
  9. JoMo we have "paid in advance" for some rain and cooler temps. It is time for nature to "settle up" with us (and mock me for putting in irrigation lines )
  10. Turns out we got a couple rounds giving us a robust 1.13". Owing to laws of reverse psychology, the drought should be winding down now that we installed a bunch of irrigation lines.
  11. Looks like C. OK is going to really cook during the next couple hours! Seems like the main impact of the outflow boundary is sliding east, both in terms of temps and the clouds. Meanwhile further east, looking a bit more promising for some action this afternoon. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1154 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/ MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY WHILE PATCHY CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR PONCA CITY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR SEDALIA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. SO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
  12. Even though we got a near average 2" of rain well distributed through the month of July, the prior deficit and the tremendous evapotranspiration due to the excessive heat - we still seem to be getting drier (although the rate of deterioration has slowed some). Still not seeing any hope from the tropics and the NW flow just is not cutting it this year.
  13. For once in a long time the storms did not veer around Eureka Springs, and the rain caused quite a buzz around town. Still some of the mature white oaks are in distress losing leaves, some of them losing limbs and others dying. For the first time ever, I think I will have to watering the big 50+ year old trees before they start to show symptoms. No idea how much they need, but I guesss anything is better than nothing. We are at about half our annual average for rain at this point. If the front to hang up close to the region, we might actually get something to stop the deterioration in conditions or at least to give me a break from watering for a few days. Can someone explain what they mean in the bold text below? DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL COVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN/THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE WRN NORTH ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL OVERLAY THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A N/S-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SWRN ORE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXTENSIVE...W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD WHILE LYING FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...TO THE OH VALLEY...TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/...STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S -- WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AND...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT...AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OWING TO DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...THE MODERATE/VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH 20-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SVR WINDS...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL FOSTER GENERALLY MORE DISORGANIZED/PULSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY FORECAST TO BE PRESENT AND FAIRLY HIGH STORM COVERAGE...STORM MERGERS/LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES /GIVEN PW VALUES 1.75-2 INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THIS THREAT. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER-MS AND TN VALLEYS... LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES -- AND MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER/MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN CORRIDORS FOR ENHANCED SVR COVERAGE...ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED TO THE WEST/SOUTH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST: /1/ PARTS OF WRN TN/WRN KY/NRN AR/SRN MO/SRN IL: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN GA INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A PERTURBATION NEAR THE MOIST/DRY INTERFACE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ANVIL SHADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERTURBATION PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO DELINEATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. /2/ LOWER MS VALLEY: WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.
  14. Trying not to get my hopes up too high, but the 12Z GFS continues the trend of squeezing the evil high off to the west by early next week. Certainly looks to cool us off and looks like at least some shower activity.
  15. This list is imby. 2009 was a big year for Carroll County. 1. Ice Storm 2009 2. Christmas eve snow of 2002 3. Ike's remnants 2009 4. Spring Floods of 2009 5. Hot summer of 2011 Vying for a spot in the top 5 is the drought of 2012, which seems like a lock to bump off the summer of 2011
  16. Guys I am not liking that doughnut over our area. As of this morning the qpf forecast was for 1-2". Anyway, maybe the cluster of storms over Kansas can track more in our direction.
  17. Someone needs to take down the rain deflector shield over this part of NW AR. It was really disheartening to see that rain band fall apart to our west, only to reform to the east. So to change our luck, I am now irrigating the smaller treees in the orchard even though we are forecast to get over an inch of rain tonight. I probably should aso leave my car windows rolled down tonight, but not quite that desperate, yet.
  18. This is actually worse than last year with regard to moisture. The death ridge did not really start til almost Memorial Day and we are already way below normal for May only .71. Some of you west of here did much much better with those stalled out fronts. Best wishes JoMo for the Anniversary. I am sure it is going to be hard for a lot of people.
  19. It seems when there is a severe weather system, another thread gets going. Makes this place not quite so busy as winter, but still for regional events of interest this is the place. Speaking of which, it appears as though our last frost for 2011 is going to end up being about March 3, and a few days after that the stupid peach trees bloomed. I thought they were idiots, ditto for the pears which quickly followed and eventually the apples. Looks they were right after all, we have an excellent crop of all three this year. Knock on wood. Also, seems like the grass grew about an inch and a half overnight after yesterdays rain. And one more thing, here is a shot of the rainbow last evening as the system pulled out.
  20. We ended up with 3.45" over the 3 day period, which on balance, is just about perfect for ending the dry-ish start to the year. The 2012 total prior to this storm was only 4.79". Meanwhile tonight there is a very cool looking ground fog that is so shallow that the stars show through easily. Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD - TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK.
  21. I drove around today and no evidence of anything major. I think we had a localized gust, and a very loud one at that.
  22. Although the rain has not lived up to expectations, last nights gust front was surprisingly strong (50mph) and perhaps higher next door where the neighbor's marginally engineered hobby greenhouse (but fairly well anchored) was ripped from the "foundation". Also some shingle damage to a well built roof. The suddenness and the noise made me wonder for a second if we had a little spin up for a few seconds.
  23. I know this will change shortly, but there is a growing "storm cancel" vibe among people around me, who have waited all day for the expected 1-2" of rain, and still no more than a brief morning shower so far.
  24. Looking at the precip map for us locally, wow! Also I noticed an unusually big slug of moisture over the Mogollon Rim in AZ....and wow again, much of that is snow,lol. Winter storm warnings as low as 5000 feet.