Jump to content

Ozarkwx

Members
  • Content count

    301
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Ozarkwx

  1. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Even though we got a near average 2" of rain well distributed through the month of July, the prior deficit and the tremendous evapotranspiration due to the excessive heat - we still seem to be getting drier (although the rate of deterioration has slowed some). Still not seeing any hope from the tropics and the NW flow just is not cutting it this year.
  2. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    For once in a long time the storms did not veer around Eureka Springs, and the rain caused quite a buzz around town. Still some of the mature white oaks are in distress losing leaves, some of them losing limbs and others dying. For the first time ever, I think I will have to watering the big 50+ year old trees before they start to show symptoms. No idea how much they need, but I guesss anything is better than nothing. We are at about half our annual average for rain at this point. If the front to hang up close to the region, we might actually get something to stop the deterioration in conditions or at least to give me a break from watering for a few days. Can someone explain what they mean in the bold text below? DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL COVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN/THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE WRN NORTH ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL OVERLAY THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A N/S-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SWRN ORE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXTENSIVE...W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD WHILE LYING FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...TO THE OH VALLEY...TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/...STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S -- WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AND...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT...AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OWING TO DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...THE MODERATE/VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH 20-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SVR WINDS...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL FOSTER GENERALLY MORE DISORGANIZED/PULSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY FORECAST TO BE PRESENT AND FAIRLY HIGH STORM COVERAGE...STORM MERGERS/LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES /GIVEN PW VALUES 1.75-2 INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THIS THREAT. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER-MS AND TN VALLEYS... LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES -- AND MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER/MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN CORRIDORS FOR ENHANCED SVR COVERAGE...ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED TO THE WEST/SOUTH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST: /1/ PARTS OF WRN TN/WRN KY/NRN AR/SRN MO/SRN IL: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN GA INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A PERTURBATION NEAR THE MOIST/DRY INTERFACE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ANVIL SHADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERTURBATION PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO DELINEATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. /2/ LOWER MS VALLEY: WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR THREAT.
  3. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Trying not to get my hopes up too high, but the 12Z GFS continues the trend of squeezing the evil high off to the west by early next week. Certainly looks to cool us off and looks like at least some shower activity.
  4. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    This list is imby. 2009 was a big year for Carroll County. 1. Ice Storm 2009 2. Christmas eve snow of 2002 3. Ike's remnants 2009 4. Spring Floods of 2009 5. Hot summer of 2011 Vying for a spot in the top 5 is the drought of 2012, which seems like a lock to bump off the summer of 2011
  5. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Guys I am not liking that doughnut over our area. As of this morning the qpf forecast was for 1-2". Anyway, maybe the cluster of storms over Kansas can track more in our direction.
  6. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Someone needs to take down the rain deflector shield over this part of NW AR. It was really disheartening to see that rain band fall apart to our west, only to reform to the east. So to change our luck, I am now irrigating the smaller treees in the orchard even though we are forecast to get over an inch of rain tonight. I probably should aso leave my car windows rolled down tonight, but not quite that desperate, yet.
  7. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    This is actually worse than last year with regard to moisture. The death ridge did not really start til almost Memorial Day and we are already way below normal for May only .71. Some of you west of here did much much better with those stalled out fronts. Best wishes JoMo for the Anniversary. I am sure it is going to be hard for a lot of people.
  8. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    It seems when there is a severe weather system, another thread gets going. Makes this place not quite so busy as winter, but still for regional events of interest this is the place. Speaking of which, it appears as though our last frost for 2011 is going to end up being about March 3, and a few days after that the stupid peach trees bloomed. I thought they were idiots, ditto for the pears which quickly followed and eventually the apples. Looks they were right after all, we have an excellent crop of all three this year. Knock on wood. Also, seems like the grass grew about an inch and a half overnight after yesterdays rain. And one more thing, here is a shot of the rainbow last evening as the system pulled out.
  9. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    We ended up with 3.45" over the 3 day period, which on balance, is just about perfect for ending the dry-ish start to the year. The 2012 total prior to this storm was only 4.79". Meanwhile tonight there is a very cool looking ground fog that is so shallow that the stars show through easily. Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD - TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK.
  10. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    I drove around today and no evidence of anything major. I think we had a localized gust, and a very loud one at that.
  11. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Although the rain has not lived up to expectations, last nights gust front was surprisingly strong (50mph) and perhaps higher next door where the neighbor's marginally engineered hobby greenhouse (but fairly well anchored) was ripped from the "foundation". Also some shingle damage to a well built roof. The suddenness and the noise made me wonder for a second if we had a little spin up for a few seconds.
  12. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    I know this will change shortly, but there is a growing "storm cancel" vibe among people around me, who have waited all day for the expected 1-2" of rain, and still no more than a brief morning shower so far.
  13. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Looking at the precip map for us locally, wow! Also I noticed an unusually big slug of moisture over the Mogollon Rim in AZ....and wow again, much of that is snow,lol. Winter storm warnings as low as 5000 feet.
  14. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Exactly on the rain, enough with this stupid dry wind, I need to burn some monstrous brush piles, but after that let's get back to business with an interesting spring setup.
  15. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Holy smokes, this put me in a spring mood! There is a silver maple in front of the house starting to bud with these sweet blossoms. This afternoon the tree is swarmed with bees. Fairly loud buzzing. Trying to figure out if these are baby bees or some that are coming out of hibernation? In any case, perhaps prematurely, it feels like "real winter" is over.
  16. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    2nd batch of precip was mainly rain. Just not our year for snow.
  17. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Csnnaywx (or someone) I think I need a translation on this, but it sounds interesting. Does this indicate the potential for an axis of heavier precipitation similar to 2011 blizzard referenced in post 784? What time would this potential be likely to occur?
  18. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    As much as the NAM is dissed with great gusto at times, I believe it was the one that nailed one of our blizzards last year. I think it was the of Feb. 9 last year. I know Waterboy will remember that one.
  19. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Even though this is the "Winter of our Discontent" for many here, the lack of snow continues a string of historic or near historic extremes our area has experienced over the last year or so.....and that in and of itself is rather amazing. I am getting a bit concerned about seeing early signs of spring emerge in a few flowering trees and shrubs. I have never really been through a scenario like this, which if it continues, could be rather punishing for the fruit crop, and take some of the fun out of spring color. Anyone been through a "Jan/Feb false spring" before and if so, what is the result?
  20. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    I put PYKL3 on my Android Thunderbolt and it is quite stable and seems to work as promised. I bet it would be outstanding on a tablet where you could get a bigger display. I have not used Radarscope, nor do I feel much call to do so given the PYKL3's performance.
  21. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    You know its slow when we are posting maps of +300 and +336 hours. I guess we are reduced to meteorolgical Hail Mary's at this point.
  22. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Amazing - Another warm weather bulls-eye.
  23. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    The expected "coldest night of the year" surprisingly underperformed, and I am not sure how that happened. The forecasted low was 12 and typically in my valley location, a clear, still night, reduces the temperature another 3-5 degrees. After sunset, the temp was 22 and rose to 25 by midnight and then only dipped to 19, despite a dew point of 8. There were some high clouds at dawn, but no wind to speak of overnight. Any ideas what happened?
  24. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Just got back in from walking the dog in the windy mist, that I think had some flakes mixed in. Looks like the "heaviest" snow is the the I-44 corridor and north. Wx24/7 are you getting anything in Monett?
  25. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Maybe someone should call Tebow and see if he can help.
×