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Ozarkwx

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Everything posted by Ozarkwx

  1. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Well we are only in the third quarter of the season, and we are getting enough cold air this year, just lacking moisture. I think we should have a few more chances and we may just connect on something yet. On the other hand, now is probably not the time to go buy a snow blower. Doug updated his blog with a 2 month forecast. He is not giving up.
  2. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    A co-worker of mine drove down to Jasper, AR i(25 miles south of Harrison n a 2WD work van late this morning and found it to be snowing and the roads snow covered and treacherous enough to pull over and wait for the sun to start melting the roads. I did not know he was headed that way, and he was totally caught off guard. Apparently can't post a facebook pic here, but here is a cool photo from near Ozark today. SNOW!
  3. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Apparently the HPC is thinking ice as well for Saturday night - Sunday.
  4. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    That is funny (and cool).
  5. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    There is almost always some fantasy fun going on with the models this time of year. DGEX seems like it is the source more often than not, lol. Hope does spring eternal. BTW got to see the snow field going from XNA to DFW the day after the storm. Pretty interesting. The snow was plainly visible approaching the Arkansas River but faded out for the most part after about 120 miles(?) then reappeared approaching the DFW metroplex. Someone told me this was their first White Christmas in 37 years.
  6. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Not a flake here. That dry air is hanging very tough even this far south and east. Looking at the radar loop is appears the pinwheeling bands are running into a wall as they rotate in this direction. (so far) Dewpoint is 24 and air temp is 30. DP has not budged all day.
  7. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Busting a forecast is never good, but busting the freaking Christmas forecast, ouch. On the other hand, if you are a kid in Hot Springs, AR or Tunica, MS things are definitely looking up for that once in a childhood white Christmas.
  8. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    It is situations like this that makes weather a lot of fun. Nonetheless, I don't think we can make the critical fine tune adjustments on the storm track until the 12Z RAOBS are ingested into the models. Even the vaunted EC can only do so much when the storm is incompletely sampled.
  9. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    At this rate will the NAM put AR into the warm sector, lol? Anyway,It certainly is a stretch to believe the NAM when it stands alone, BUT....Remember the "Highway 412" snow of February 2011 (I think) where the NAM stood alone against the model world and won? All along AR 412 between Siloam and well east into Newton County amounts were 20+".
  10. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    This NAM has got to be considered a clown map. What is that 2'+ over XNA?
  11. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    I've got a bad feeling about one. Bad in the sense the one day I really really don't want it to snow - the 26th when I leave for AZ from XNA - is looking more plausible. Reminds of my my last AZ trip which took off on Christmas eve 2010, just missing the snow.
  12. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Nice write up by a snow loving TV met on 40/29 TV in Fayetteville. Anybody know Darby Bybee? We should try and get him to participate with all you snow addicts hounds here.
  13. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Have you guys stepped outside to spend 15 minutes looking at the meteor shower? Very very impressive. I am pretty far away from metropolitan Eureka Springs, so the light pollution is minimal.
  14. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Yes it will be a long 8 days for anyone who subconsciously (or consciously) organizes their computer schedule around the model output times and pores over the notoriously fickle 7+ day solutions. At least now it does finally appear their is some potential wintry intrigue ahead (and sooner than +300 hours this time).
  15. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Yea, saw that lol. Now let's see what kind of entertainment the 300 hour GFS offers us on this run.
  16. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Not too worried about the lack of a good set up yet, There is still a long way to go. Let the best set ups come when the colder part of winter is here rather than "waste" them when temps are marginal at best. Meanwhile, pretty great weekend weather for almost anything outside.
  17. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    This evening south of Eureka Springs. Never seen anything like these twins (do these have a name?). Fascinating to consider what conditions existed to create a pair of these. No other cloud build ups in the area.
  18. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Looking good for AR and MO......
  19. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    The NHC simply does not want to move that track much further west than HWY. 65 (LZK to SGF)...not sure why exactly when the Euro, GFS and NAM are clustered between Fayetteville and Tulsa. Reading between the lines of the Tulsa discussion I get the feeling they are chomping at the bit to extend the QPF further west. But it seems they are constrained by the protocols that require them to follow the NHC and probably also the HPC. Anyway, looks promising for most of us in the area if the model consensus verifies. ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE ISAAC HOLDS THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND NOW SHOW A TRACK WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHEST WEST...WITH A TRACK BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM ALL SHOW A TRACK ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED JUST ON THE OKLAHOMA SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE...WE HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND HAVE GONE JUST BELOW THE HIGH GFS MOS POP NUMBERS. WILL FOLLOW HPC QPF FOR NOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT QPF NUMBERS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAAC WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
  20. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Looks like the GFS has been joined by the Euro in bringing Isaac W in TX/OK
  21. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Sure would be nice to see something like this verify. A decaying TD right over JoMo's house, lol. Although, a bird in hand......
  22. Ozarkwx

    Jonesing for a Chase

    Yes only how about a 96 hour root canal where "we are always getting there but not quite done yet, or this is a little tricky it is going to take a little while longer"....the disorganized structure with occasional convective flare up, getting vertically stacked just in time to run into Hait, the trek near Cuber, and finally the FL penninsula is in the way again, BUT some time down the road "it might" blow up.
  23. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    JoMo we have "paid in advance" for some rain and cooler temps. It is time for nature to "settle up" with us (and mock me for putting in irrigation lines )
  24. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Turns out we got a couple rounds giving us a robust 1.13". Owing to laws of reverse psychology, the drought should be winding down now that we installed a bunch of irrigation lines.
  25. Ozarkwx

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Looks like C. OK is going to really cook during the next couple hours! Seems like the main impact of the outflow boundary is sliding east, both in terms of temps and the clouds. Meanwhile further east, looking a bit more promising for some action this afternoon. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1154 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/ MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY WHILE PATCHY CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR PONCA CITY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR SEDALIA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. SO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
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