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mclean02

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Posts posted by mclean02

    2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hvward said:
    2 hours ago, Met1985 said:
    This is an airmass we could see diamond dust falling in. Been awhile since we have seen that.

     

    Yeah the dendritic growth zone is going to be between 4500’-7000’ on Xmas Morning. The flow could continue on into the morning on For many. Snow showers will make themselves with the growth zone that low.

    Was thinking about booking a place in boone but not sure if I should pick there or banner elk for my first snow ❄️ tracking of the year. Does anyone know which is best for nw flow snow ?

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:
    High-latitude N Pacific blocking, SE Canada vortex, & an active southern stream are the basic large-scale ingredients that favor wintry wx in the southern US & they might be in place next week. However, timing will ultimately determine if a there's a threat to begin with #ncwx
     
    As normal around here :( But glad there is something track! 

     

    Dorian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SENC said:

    Oh Jesus, What great Track(s) to wake-up to this AM..

    I'm in the process of Moving..   To a  Home *almost* on the ICW Waterfront this week..  

    whoopie! I'll be living here..  34.309653, -77.737413

    Please someone UN-PLUG the ILM hurricane magnet! stat! 

    At least I'll be able to get a good price on the Generator I'm selling..  ;) I have Two.. 

    Right I put a post yesterday telling my family in Wilmington and Jacksonville NC that it's going to curve and may affect them. I guess because NC sticks out in the ocean we always take a hit with these type of storms.

    • Thanks 1

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

    I'm feeling a little less concerned hear just east of that big batch of heavy rain here. Past experience says this much rain and clouds really hamper severe weather and even though the Windfields are insane lack of sun and a worked over atmosphere always give me pause when it comes to severe weather.

    Yeah i was thinking the same thing till i saw the visible sat showing that clearing working its way north 

     

    Capture.JPG

    • Like 1

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, sarcean said:

    RAH is still almost refusing to acknowledge the possibility of significant snow

     

      

    
Wintry precipitation is still likely this weekend and confidence in
said occurrence is high, however the exact timing, amounts and p-
types are still uncertain due to continued model differences and
thus low confidence. Best chances for wintry precipitation are still
along and north of the US-1 corridor.

Overview: A pair of upper level lows/troughs will develop  on
Saturday, one off the Southern Rockies/Desert Southwest and the
other over the Northern High Plains/SW Canada. The former will shift
eastward then east-northeastward through the ARKLATEX and into the
TN Valley while the latter will dive south-southeastward, deepening
over the Plains/Midwest. The southern stream low will become
absorbed into the stronger northern stream low over the MS/TN Valley
Monday/Monday night as it continues its southward dive toward the
Gulf. Expect strong moisture advection into the Gulf Coast states
and Southeast US ahead of the system Saturday and Sunday. Cold, high
pressure will dominate at the surface over the Great Lakes region,
ridging into western/central NC through the period in a CAD setup.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday in response to the upper level system. The surface low is
expected to move along the Gulf Coast, through the panhandle of FL
and northeast along the Carolina coast, while the wedge remains in
place over northwestern portions of the area. As a result, there
will be a very strong pressure gradient from west to east across NC
on Sunday/Sunday night. Even the slightest shift in track, timing,
temperature, etc. will result in significant impacts to the
forecast.

Timing: The latest medium-range models suggest precipitation will
likely move into central NC very slowly from the south-southwest
late Saturday or Saturday night. The ECMWF continues to be a tad
slower than the GFS, though the timing has come into significantly
better agreement from 24 hours ago.

P-type: As mentioned above, a lot of uncertainty still remains with
respect to wintry precipitation, as any small change/difference in
timing, temperature, thermal profile, etc. will impact the p-type.
As past events would suggest, a purely snow event is not likely as
there is usually a mix of wintry p-types. Expect precipitation to
start as rain across the far south and southwest, though chances are
looking decent for a mix of rain/snow across the northwest half of
central NC when precipitation moves in overnight. A mix of p-types,
especially over the northwest half of central NC, is likely
overnight as temperatures fall, while the southeast could remain
rain for the duration. Expect several p-type changes throughout the
event, especially along and north of US-1, with snow, sleet and
freezing rain all possibilities. Regardless of p-type, liquid
equivalents could range from one to two inches. Will hold of on
getting too cute with any snow amounts at this time given the degree
of uncertainty and how the varying p-types would impact
accumulations.

Temperatures: Highs on Sunday expected to top out in the low to mid
40s while Sunday will be much colder in the NW, with highs topping
out around freezing while the SE should reach into mid 40s again.
Lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will be similar, upper 20s to
mid 30s Saturday night and low 30s to around 40 degrees Sunday
night. Monday highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s expected at this
time. -KC

Monday night through Wednesday: Medium range model guidance in
general agreement depicting a deep upper level low traversing the SE
U.S., initiating yet another deepening sfc wave just offshore of
SC/southern NC. The string dynamics associated with the upper level
low and the potential for the sfc wave to sling moisture back into
central NC. The models have trended a little farther south with the
system and attendant precipitation. Thus, expect a chance of rain or
rain/snow mixed primarily focused across the southern counties
Monday night. If the system drifts just a little farther north,
could see a threat for snow across the northern counties with some
light accumulation possible. Min temperatures generally in the 20s
to the lower 30s.

The upper level system and associated coastal low will sweep quickly
eastward and offshore Tuesday with improving weather conditions into
mid week. If there is any residual snow/ice pack across the
Piedmont, could see temperatures Tuesday night drop into the teens.
Away from the snow/ice pack, expect overnight lows in the 20s.
Afternoon highs will remain well below normal with high temperatures
in the 40s expected, closer to 50 across the far south-southeast by
mid week. -WSS

    Yeah I hope they are wrong but normally when they are meh or have low confidence  about a storm they are right quite a bit. I hope that changes today !

    • Like 2
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