mclean02

4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

water temperatures

Hurricane season is going to suck if we get a low shear environment.  

16 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I don’t recall an Arctic plunge taking so painfully long to blast East. It cleared Nashville two days ago, and still hasn’t gotten past the mountains. We routinely have Summer cold fronts that blast through faster. 

I think it might have more to do with the southeast ridge slowing down heavy cold air plus the Appalachians

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I fairly understand why the cold delivery had failed so far, but I don’t get why the moisture delivery has also failed. GSO has only had a piddling .02 inches out of this entire system.  Is it downsloping? But why did Central Virginia and Northern VA get more precip?

Yeah that's a question I had as well just seems like it's easier for Houston tx to get snow vs triad region

2 hours ago, BretWx said:

Definitely will take the 1 inch of snow 

7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Just me or does this setup remind anyone of snowmaggedon that hit Atlanta in January 2014? Not quite as deep a cold push but lots of arctic air, Overruning precip, uncertainty on models. 

I'll take 2 inches and have it hang around for few days vs 7 to 8 and gone by the next day hope the trends continue!

I know we are all talking about the snow and ice. But from what I recall Duke power saying something about not being to handle multiple days of really cold weather this year. Looks like from Texas to Georgia a few days of really cold air might have to buy some fire wood and batteries to prepare.

Such a huge storm hoping I keep my power today !

What the heck happened here haha ??

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 So, the 0Z 1/4 EPS was forecasting a strong -EPO for mid Jan, the period I’m analyzing for SE winter storm chances. That would be a pretty big deal if it verifies. 80% of the moderate right side MJO with widespread SE mod to heavy wintry precip had a strong -EPO.

 This shows an 8 straight day period of sub -150. How often does that occur in any one winter? There have been 40 instances since 1948 or about one every other winter on average. No winter has had more than two. So, if that EPS is right, it would be a pretty big deal, especially when combined with a -AO. But this is all looking to go against a robust MC MJO.
 

 The lengthy strong EPO strings fully in Jan were (temps are for SE):

1/10-18/1957: cold (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO)

1/18-29/1961: very cold/wintry (+PNA, -AO, neut NAO)

1/15-22/1962: cold/wintry (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO)

1/9-31/1963: very cold (+PNA, -AO, -NAO)

1/17-26/1969*: slightly AN (-PNA, -AO, -NAO)

1/1-11/1974: mild (-PNA, +AO, neut NAO)

1/1-9/1979: very cold to cool (MJO mod 7-6)   (-PNA, -AO, neut NAO)

1/20-28/1991: cold/wintry (MJO mod 3-4)
(neut PNA, +AO, neut NAO)

1/4-14/1993: mild (MJO strong 8-1-2)
(-PNA, +AO, +NAO)

1/1-9/2005*: warm (MJO mod 4-5)
(-PNA, +AO, +NAO)

1/14-23/2009: very cold (MJO strong to mod 7-8-1)(+PNA, +AO, +NAO)

1/20-28/2014: very cold/wintry (MJO mod 6-7)
(+PNA, -AO, +NAO)

1/1-11/2015*: cold (MJO mod to strong 5-6) 
(neut PNA, +AO, +NAO)

1/1-8/2017: cold/wintry (MJO rt side COD)
(-PNA, +AO, neut NAO)

* = El Nino

 

 Analysis:

- 10 of 14 were cold

- 5 of 14 were wintry

- MJO: all over the map

- +PNA: all 4 very cold

- All mild to warm had -PNA but half the -PNAs cold

- Twice as many -PNA as +PNA

- -AO averaged colder (4 of 5 cold) than the more common +AO but 2/3 of +AO still cold

- Only 2 of 14 -NAO and one of those mild

- 6 of 7 neut NAO and 3 of 5 +NAO cold

 

Conclusions for upcoming -EPO:

- Having a -AO will favor cold

- Progged to have weaker -PNA than the 8 -PNAs listed. Thus, I don’t think it would prevent cold though it likely would prevent extreme cold.

- Better chance for cold without than with widespread significant wintry precip but that’s no surprise since it is the SE. But 5 of 14 (36%) being wintry beats the odds of most 8-12 day periods in Jan.

- And cold looking very likely per EPS. All 5 wintry cases were cold. That’s 5 of 11 (45%) cold cases being wintry. That’s high for the SE for an 8-12 day period in Jan!

-Weak -PNA would likely neither hurt nor enhance the wintry chance.

-If MJO is strong like what GEFS has, that may hurt wintry chance. Hoping MJO more like EPS.

-Oddly enough, -AO/-NAO surprisingly didn’t seem to help with wintry when considering these 14 cases fwiw though I’d still rather have them.

Anyone have the latest EPS (or any model) EPO forecast?

This looks to be playing out on the latest run with a few days of sub 30 degree temps after the over running event on 1/16. With another snow storm moving through the southeast as shown below. Would love 7 days of below freezing weather in south maybe kill some bugs ha!

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Was that the one showing almost like a backdoor cold front building a strong wedge temps go from 45 to 32 degrees really cool. 

7 hours ago, chubbs said:

This is why I don't worry about the worst case anymore. Solar can dent fossil fuel demand. Solar+batteries can destroy it.

Wow that's a huge increase! I heard something about the stone batteries today being useful to store heat energy for long periods of time.   

That's true sometimes it really feels hopeless. Just have to keep doing everything we can calling out misinformation when you hear it and reducing your carbon emissions by biking or consolidating trips if possible.

On 12/15/2023 at 1:05 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Eventually we may have to look at the worst case scenario warming outcomes if this year is any indication 

What is the worst case scenario? And where do you feel we will in 5 to 10 years based on your gut feeling ? As a late 20 year old now I feel like the ship has sailed and we just need to look at stopping  2.0 degrees of warming. In the short time I have been alive here in the southern states I have noticed I have mosquitoes at my parents house and that rain seems way heavier then I recall as a kid. I plan on moving to Detroit or Alaska in the next 5 years I really feel lost sometimes and sad when I look at my nieces  sorry for the run on sesentences 

Another Foggy day in downtown Winston 

Don't  see this every year crazy day 

23 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Best advice I have for everyone to consider, if you get some spare time or a weekend where northwest flow is forecasted, don’t hesitate to head up with the family. A lot of people don’t realize it, but when they close the parkway for snow, it’s open to recreation. Take the sleds and enjoy. I know it’s never the same as snow in your backyard but it’ll satisfy the itch enough. I’m down in Burke County now, but always try to go up when a big flow event is forecasted. 

Y'all think Roanoke area will see a Inch in this case?

I spy some eye candy finally could we have white (Sleet) Christmas in the Triad?? 

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

Dont think so not sure why these storms are going at this time. I thought it was going to be over by now 

14 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Doesn't that look mean severe weather in late to mid March since the cold air is close by ?

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All I know is 5 straight weeks of winter storm tracking is ridiculous. I thought Mother Nature was giving us a break?!?! All this for 3.4” of snow and a couple flizzards 

I am completely happy with it ! Rare to have a pattern like this and I love it!. Not a fan of 67 degrees and rain.... lol

Was looking at the soundings looked like another Sleet storm in the triad (Which i am fine with just no ZR lol) 

Looks like that band of moderate to heavy snow is setting up over gso and asheboro area. I think some of the models actually had this spot picked 

10 minutes ago, jlh said:

That's awesome, good radar trends out there.

Yeah looking at the radar here it's really blooming https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wow dare I say heavy snow in gso atm 

6 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Nice moderate snow in Gibsonville sticking. This officially gets us snow…..on snow…..on sleet still leftover from 2 weeks ago.

Been a hot minute since we’ve seen that!


.

I was just saying that I don't ever recall that in my life best winter in a while for gso so far