thunderwolf

Certainly the quicker we can get precip into NC, the greater the snow chances will be. At the same time, the dew points will be so low Sat evening, its hard to imagine any precip actually making it to the surface.

Finally got cold enough to get some decent snow here in southern Wake and I thought we might be able to squeak out an inch after all. But then radar returns completely fell apart just as it was getting going. Sun trying to peak out now Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

Looks like after that reorganization of the eye that its drifting northwestward again.

I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph.

Just measured the satellite, it looks like its about 35 miles wide N-S.

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

Pressure 10 mb higher too. Not sure what I think about that, although nearly all the models have been trending slightly weaker with the system which is good news.

Yes the landfall probability distribution seems reasonable to me. <10% chance of OTS, about 10% of moving into GA, 20% chance Charleston area, 60% from about MYB to MHC.

Wow, good call. I don't know how to post the image of today's run, but here's a link https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091012_ECENS_0-120h_large.png Spread does seem a little more reasonable with today's 12z than the one I had erroneously mentioned earlier.

Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too. Edit: That was yesterday's run. Spread does look more reasonable today.

Hug the big dog outlier until it falls in line with the rest of the models. Then when that model comes into line with everything else, its "falling apart".

What is the HRRR smoking? Its still giving close to 10 inches in the triangle.

I think the GFS just put any hopes of overperforming to bed.

Well maybe if you deactivated you "show" shields we would get in on the action down here!

Lol at the NAM map ColdRain posted. Looks like someone purposefully took out SE Wake County from the 12" contours