NJHurricane

35 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I don't think the sleet/mix line is near them. It's in SNJ/N Del last I heard...right or wrong I don't know.

Moderate snow began as moderate signature on radar was moving past...no pingers so far

National Park NJ across from PHL

Another batch of light snow here in National Park NJ at 12:45pm

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Solid run....PHL itself has a chance at a noteworthy accumulation.

14 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Lol I've seen we've digressed into talking about '58 here. Just take your 16" inches and be happy. .... clearly too many weenies for breakfast. Nothing about this says Hecs, this is modeled as a reasonable Mecs. I dont think the low is deep enough. No wonder these storms always fall short of expectations when the expectations rise of the granddaddy of all PA blizzards-- what do you expect. 

I think the Para shows a nice solution however I think the gradient will be further south and tighter. Realistically there will be some dry slotting and probably a crust of sleet at some point. Somebody will probably see 20 to 22" out of this but you'd have to be color blind to see 50" on any of these maps!! 

 

 

Welp...

There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs.

A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that.

The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals.  Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16.

I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location.

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC bullseye is IMBY 

#LockItIn

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If I end up with 6 inches I’m boycotting this model for a year.

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Crazy uncle is in the house! The Lehigh Valley is going to hate him but it's south Jersey's favorite uncle.

 

I’ll take bronze medal and 14 inches over a 10.5” gold

really, I’m ok with others getting 30.7” if I get a foot

Did we just get NAMed by the GFS?  Is that a thing in 2021?

7 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

652 days since the last inch of snow was recorded at Philly International.

I’m directly across the river...ending that drought is my goal now.  C’mon front end thump.

10 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Kuchera is junk should be banned from being posted

 

Seriously....how many inches above record snowfall does it spit out every storm?

Then again it’s kinda like letting me down easy, something I can cling to even though I know it’s an illusion Lol

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The warm air would come above 850mb, probably at 750-800mb. The 850 low track looks good so the warmth would come above that layer. 

That being said, the way the NAM evolves it could mean we all have an insane front end thump then sleet when the precip tapers down. By 9z there's a dryslot coming in. 

Front end thump is the real game for city on east right now IMO.

2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Hello neighbor.

I’m home for this one....so 37 and rain pretty much guaranteed.  Was really looking forward to watching it pile up by the monument.  We need a big push from this confluence to shunt it east and put us in the sweet zone. 295 corridor4life.

8 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Is there any source for this national park thing or is that just hearsay

It was true...not sure if they found someone new or on the PA side.  I received an inquiry if I was interested but I often work long hours in north Jersey.  I’ve lived in National Park since 2011, before that in Woodbury.  

18 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..the 96 dump is not accurate. Measured liquid.

for years the measurements were on a roof of a building!!

noaa decided to move phl measurements across the river to a private house!! National park nj!

This was true for many years, not sure if it still is. I know they were trying to find a new observer at one point. I live in National Park (no I’m not the observer). The western part of our town is just the river’s width away from PHL.  We are probably quite representative of ground truth on the eastern part of airport property but from what I remember there was no suitable location on that part of the airport.  It often differs from some of the unofficial obj in center city, but generally what I experienced at my location jives pretty nicely with the airport. I think there was one storm that the back edge of a band we were in never made it across the river. I’m frequently not in town or I mighta done the obs and don’t trust others to faithfully follow the measurement protocols.  I’ve still never come across who the observer was from my town.  Lol y’all probably sent the person into observer witness protection.

Good steady snow in Millburn NJ, sticking to most surfaces

Appreciate the obs....double appreciation if you include location 

Mmmmmm

Steady light snow, coating on untreated roads in Millburn NJ

Very light snow where I’m at in Millburn NJ

Brookside drive Millburn NJ...one guy left his car...rest trying to k-turn back downhill...

Would it be too troublesome to have a 30 day or so trial of a merged forum and then review the positives/negatives that come out of it?

(says the guy who hasn't been active anywhere in months)