MegaMike

Embrace the NAM while you can, weenies.

Change is coming.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the AIFS humping is going to be unbearable for a while. past 5 days it isn't as good as any other model, really

It's an experimental model that doesn't predict moisture/heat flux based on fluid dynamics. As a result, it's totally unreliable in my opinion... It's probably the reason why the NWS doesn't refer to it in their forecast discussions.

Can't wait to see how it performs during the warm season. With limited training data on hurricanes, I expect it to perform terribly with tropical disturbances.

30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Exactly my thoughts. Kuchera is awful and really should never be used. Sometimes it'll align with what i'm thinking or what the forecast might be but at that point it might just be confirmation bias saying the Kuchera was good this time or its good for "x" event. 

I agree with you both.

To evaluate snowfall, you really need to evaluate SWE, as well. For that matter, you'd need to evaluate forcing fields too (ensure SWE was predicted accurately for the right reasons). If SWE was under predicted, but a snowfall algorithm performed well, that algorithm isn't showing accuracy... It's showing a bias.  Unfortunately, snowfall evaluations are tricky because of gauge losses wrt observations. Not everyone measures the same either... Can of warms, snowfall is.

A met mentioned this earlier too, but the more dynamic an algorithm is, the more likely errors exacerbate. The Cobb algorithm is logically ideal for snowfall prediction, but compounding error throughout all vertical layers of atmosphere likely inhibits its accuracy. 

Snowfall prediction sucks which is probably why there are only a handful of publications. Otherwise, these vague algorithms wouldn't be widely used by public vendors.... It's the bottom of a very small barrel.

I've never heard of Spire Weather before, but based on their website, it looks like it's another AI modeling system (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

It doesn't take much to run an AI model... Especially since the source code for panguweather, fourcastnet, and graphcast are available online for free: https://github.com/ecmwf-lab/ai-models

My recommendation: If they don't evaluate or provide modeling specifications, don't use it.

26 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just noticed the 12z CFS had the storm too

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, but please don't use the CFS for this. The CFS is a heavily truncated (low horizontal, vertical, and temporal resolution) modeling system solely intended for climate forecasting. It won't perform well with a dynamic beast (which may or may not occur). 

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tend to agree ... i outlined a few meteorological aspects a while ago that goes into the why-for the (bold ^ ) tact is advisable. 

altho, i do suggest the NAM physics are very good for these low level hydrostatic gradient deals - just to add.  the gradient/steep elevating frontal slope enhances rising motion along the up-glide that's triggered under what looks like might be under done q-g forcing in that area.  we'll see..    but whether this means more low sfc pressure resulting, farther nw of previous guidance clusters or not, there's classical mechanics of qpf blossoming between central jersey to se nh. 

also noticing a 300 mb exit fan to assist with that over central ne

 

I have a hard time trusting the NAM 3km due to an issue (possibly patched or related to a vendor?) caused by its domain configuration and dynamics/physics options... If I remember correctly, if a large-scale disturbance moved too quickly, a subroutine will sporadically calculate an unrealistic wind speed (only aloft) at certain sigma levels... Can't predict atmospheric flux if a forcing field is kaput. I need to find this case study... It's pretty interesting and it happened twice from ~2016-2020.

The erratic nature of NAM is off-putting too, but I'm thinking that's related to its ic/bcs... Before a system materializes, you're solely relying on ic/bcs from a regional modeling system. Those regional modeling systems cannot effectively predict, or even initialize, small-scale/convective features which leads to significant error over time. The same forecast volatility will likely occur to other mesoscale modeling systems if they ran past 48 hours. 

While on topic: I would like to see vendors start using the RRFS (https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RRFS/; currently under development)... especially for snowfall and precipitation forecasting. It's a unified, high resolution modeling system which runs every hour. Consider it like the GEFS, but with the HRRR. The NBM/HREF are great, but its a waste of resources to post-process different mesoscale modeling systems onto a constant grid.

Let's just be happy nobody mentioned the NOGAPS.

Also not a fan of the ECMWF AI... That model is for data scientists, not meteorologists.

43 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

At this time, nobody should be relying too heavily on global (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) or regional (RGEM 10km, RAP 13km, NAM 12km, etc...) modeling systems. Stick with the mesos (HRRR 3km, WRF ARW, WRF ARW2, NAM 3km, etc...) and rely on data assimilation/nowcasting to follow any trends.

That said, the 12z HREF (ensemble of mesos) increased mean snowfall for most areas in eastern MA and all of RI (compared to last night at 00z). It also expands accumulating snowfall westward.... More snow may be falling after this, but I'm too impatient to wait for the next panel... Follow it here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20241220&rt=1200

Next panel:

At this time, nobody should be relying too heavily on global (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) or regional (RGEM 10km, RAP 13km, NAM 12km, etc...) modeling systems. Stick with the mesos (HRRR 3km, WRF ARW, WRF ARW2, NAM 3km, etc...) and rely on data assimilation/nowcasting to follow any trends.

That said, the 12z HREF (ensemble of mesos) increased mean snowfall for most areas in eastern MA and all of RI (compared to last night at 00z). It also expands accumulating snowfall westward.... More snow may be falling after this, but I'm too impatient to wait for the next panel... Follow it here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20241220&rt=1200

8 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Good eye/question!

The most recent version of the GFS has 127 hybrid sigma-pressure (terrain following at the surface and pressure aloft) vertical profile layers. In the plot you attached, the vendor is/appears to be plotting vertical profile data that has been interpolated to mandatory isobaric surfaces (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, and 100 mb). I'm assuming the same vendor uses a diagnostic categorical precipitation type/intensity field to plot precipitation type/intensity, which considers all 127 native vertical profile layers.

So the Skew-T is only showing you a select few isobaric surfaces although the native model output possesses plenty more.

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Out of curiosity, are these models developed by NWS or NCEP or whatever government guys, or is there a fair amount of contractor support?

I published a paper for the EPA regarding an air quality modeling system/data truncation, but I haven't collaborated with NCEP on atmospheric models/simulations.

I do have experience with a bunch of different modeling systems though (in order): ADCIRC (storm surge), SWAN (wave height), WRF-ARW (atmospheric and air quality), UPP (atmospheric post-processor), CMAQ (air quality), ISAM (air quality partitioning), RAMS ( atmospheric), ICLAMS (legacy atmospheric model).

Just to be clear, the HREF and NBM are great tools (I specifically use them for precipitation forecasting), however, we can do better. 

19 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Appreciate someone chiming in with an actual answer, thanks!

No problem, friend! 

I run simulations fairly regularly so I thought I'd chime in 

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Omg they have created the Frankenstein model do they know what they have done

The HREF is a Frankenstein model since it requires post-processing to obtain fields on a constant grid. It's not a standard modeling system like the HRRR, NAM, GFS, etc...

NWP requires a lot of static/time varying fields to run atmospheric simulations: vegetation type, elevation height, ice coverage, etc... By interpolating data onto a grid (or even transforming a horizontal datum), you degrade model accuracy since this information is lost.

The HREF exists simply because we created a high-resolution ensemble with what we currently have.

Consider the RRFS an ensemble consisting of multiple (9 members + 1 deterministic) high-resolution (3km) simulations on a constant grid (unlike the HREF and NBM).

In other words, it's similar to the HREF, but without any post-processing... The HREF requires post-processing since its ensemble members have various domain configurations (which is a bit taboo). Based on < https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs >, it's set to replace the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF modeling systems.

Besides what I mentioned above, the lateral boundary conditions come from the GFS (control) and the GEFS (members). All share the same core (FV3). Currently, they're testing a bunch of different options to improve the initial conditions (data assimilation) of the RRFS. Overall, it sounds like it'll be a significant improvement over the HREF and NBM once the RRFS becomes operational (and well tested).

Note: I can't find much on the RRFS' performance... Based on what I've seen so far,  It performs better in terms of reflectivity detection < https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/vancil/rrfs-hwt.pdf >

20 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Trusted models?  AI could be a good thing, especially when you can adjust for errors in the program say at day 3 and correct for biases.  Might improve long range patterns?  I would think the AI would correct for known biases, otherwise, why use AI?  I would think no model would handle an anomalous event well?  Or perhaps instead of AI, have human intervention adjusting at say, day 3 in a long range model to correct for a suspected error?

You don't think our modeling systems are trusted? Most high-resolution modeling systems perform well within 12 hours (especially once a disturbance is properly assimilated). Additionally, most global models perform reasonably well within 4 days at the synoptic level.

If you expect complete accuracy for moisture/precipitation fields, you (not you specifically, just in general) don't understand the limitations of NWP... Our initial conditions/data assimilation, boundary conditions, parameterizations, and truncations (dx,dy,dz increments) leads to significant error over time which aren't necessarily related to a modeling system itself. If we could perfectly initialize a modeling system, theoretically, there would be little to no errors post-initialization. You can't say the same thing about an AI model since it's likely trained on forcing variables such as temperature/moisture (at the surface and aloft) and is not simulated using governing equations and fundamental laws which the atmosphere adheres to.

I wrote, 'AI can be used to improve the accuracy of NWP output that have a known, and predictable bias...' so if we used AI to correct singular fields prior to initialization and while a modeling system is running, sure... It will likely improve the accuracy of NWP.

Bottom line; use AI to assist NWP or to correct fields with known biases. At this time, I don't trust atmospheric, AI models.

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I can only presume AI assisted modeling was tested for improved guidance prior to its implementation.  Recommend staying with WiC and check their afternoon EPD when it comes out

I'm not sure why anyone would use AI to forecast the weather.

1) AI is a glorified analog so it won't perform well for anomalous events.

2) We don't know what's incorporated in AI models so we can't correct for known biases.

3) Why use AI when we already have trusted NWP models?

AI can be used to improve the accuracy of NWP output that have a known, and predictable bias though. For example, improving wind speed: < https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029590 >.

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

10" rain. okie dokie

The units are mm/hr, not inches/hr.

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. 

When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. 

Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this. 

I totally agree with this.

QPF has definitely improved over the past several decades. I just wish people would stop using mesos past 1pbl cycle. Thereafter, their reliability diminishes. It's the equivalent of using the GFS past day 7.

Snow continues to melt on contact in Albany. I'm not expecting much until after sunset. It's been like this since ~9am. 

6 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Has it really been that bad though? Honestly I haven’t paid a ton of attention but this is the 12z run from this morning valid 21z today showing 1-2 inches max for Boston at 10:1 which we knew to toss those ratios anyways…

 

People trash a model if snowfall doesn't produce in their back yard. If someone says 'x' model sucks, I want them to cite an evaluation (post-hoc or operational) of meteorological forcing fields related to heat and moisture both at the surface and aloft. Those fields contributes significantly to the accuracy of NWP... Not snowfall at one location (which is typically calculated from a private website, excluding a couple NWP models).

If someone were to run an evaluation of this event, you'll likely find that temperature performed well (sfc + aloft), moisture performed okay (Td or specific humidity at the sfc and aloft), and wind speed performed okay (directional and magnitudinal at the sfc and aloft - worse as you approach the surface). All NWP models struggle with QPF (for a number of reasons) so it's not solely used to determine a model's overall performance. Through my experience, it usually performs reasonable as a bulk statistic.

IMO, ensembles should always be used for QPF forecasting. Diagnostic models should be used to determine trends.

Although the rates haven't been great, we've been getting fairly large cat paws (looks like conglomerates of multiple dendrites) out west near Albany, NY. Unfortunately, not much accumulation since ~9am. Treated surfaces appear wet, not white ATM.

19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

wow on the windsor 25". They should get over 30" easily, no?

I'd be surprised if they didn't. Plenty of time to go for them to accumulate 5''.

The most recent public information statement from KBTV, KBOX, KGYX, and KALY. Some impressive totals already.

------------------------------------------------------------
***KBOX***

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Connecticut...

...Hartford County...
7 WNW Granby                 11.3 in   0815 AM 03/14                        
Windsor Locks                4.4 in    0814 AM 03/14   ASOS                 

...Massachusetts...

...Franklin County...
Hawley                       24.0 in   0802 AM 03/14   CO-OP Observer       
Greenfield                   5.8 in    0725 AM 03/14   CO-OP Observer       
1 W Orange AP                3.0 in    0858 AM 03/14                        

...Hampden County...
Blandford                    16.0 in   0845 AM 03/14                        
Granville                    14.5 in   0845 AM 03/14                        
2 NW Montgomery              8.0 in    0705 AM 03/14                        
Southwick                    6.0 in    0845 AM 03/14   Emergency Mngr       
2 SW Chicopee                4.5 in    0711 AM 03/14                        

...Hampshire County...
1 ESE Plainfield             24.0 in   0859 AM 03/14                        
1 ESE Plainfield             20.0 in   0741 AM 03/14                        

...Middlesex County...
Ashby                        16.5 in   0905 AM 03/14                        
1 WNW Pepperell              4.0 in    0704 AM 03/14                        
2 SSE Dunstable              3.5 in    0832 AM 03/14                        

...Worcester County...
Templeton                    14.0 in   0910 AM 03/14                        
2 NNW Sterling               13.3 in   0901 AM 03/14                        
1 WNW Holden                 13.0 in   0838 AM 03/14                        
Ashburnham                   12.7 in   0745 AM 03/14   CO-OP Observer       
2 NNW Sterling               11.5 in   0729 AM 03/14                        
1 NE Lunenburg               10.1 in   0821 AM 03/14                        
Lunenburg                    10.0 in   0905 AM 03/14                        
1 N Rutland                  8.0 in    0717 AM 03/14                        
Worcester AP                 4.5 in    0815 AM 03/14   ASOS                 
1 NNW Lancaster              4.5 in    0755 AM 03/14                        
------------------------------------------------------------
***KGYX***

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Maine...

...Franklin County...
Farmington 4.8 NNW            T in     0900 AM 03/13   COCORAHS             

...New Hampshire...

...Belknap County...
2 WSW Meredith               2.0 in    0213 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      

...Carroll County...
1 N Madison                  5.5 in    0619 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      

...Cheshire County...
Walpole                      5.5 in    0618 AM 03/14   Public               
2 SW Keene                   2.0 in    0707 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      

...Coos County...
4 NNW Whitefield             2.6 in    0626 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      

...Hillsborough County...
2 WNW Windsor                11.0 in   0641 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
2 N Francestown              10.0 in   0728 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
2 N New Boston               8.0 in    0734 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
2 N Brookline                6.2 in    0711 AM 03/14   Public               
3 N Hillsborough             6.0 in    0107 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
2 S New Boston               5.6 in    0729 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      

...Merrimack County...
3 E Tilton                   2.5 in    0745 AM 03/14   Public               
Concord Municipal Airport    0.7 in    0717 AM 03/14   ASOS                 

...Rockingham County...
3 ENE Derry                  5.0 in    0720 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
Nottingham 1.2 S              T in     0830 AM 03/13   COCORAHS             

...Strafford County...
2 ENE Northwood              2.0 in    0616 AM 03/14   Trained Spotter      
------------------------------------------------------------
***KALY***

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS               
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)               

CONNECTICUT

...Litchfield County...
  Lakeville               4.0   730 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          

MASSACHUSETTS

...Berkshire County...
  Windsor                25.0   857 AM  3/14  Twitter                
  3 S Sandisfield        15.6   902 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  2 ENE Pittsfield       11.4   800 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Cheshire                7.5   800 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Lenox                   7.0   630 AM  3/14  Social Media           
  Adams                   6.5   800 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Lenoxdale               6.5   800 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Williamstown            3.5   728 AM  3/14  Twitter                

NEW YORK

...Albany County...
  CLARKSVILLE            10.0   800 AM  3/14  Elevation 1290 ft      
  1 NE Guilderland        8.0   700 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Albany Intl AP          6.0   800 AM  3/14  ASOS                   
  Albany                  5.8   905 AM  3/14  Meteorologist          
  Boght Corners           5.8   755 AM  3/14  NWS Employee           
  Colonie                 5.5   735 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  New Scotland            5.0   640 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          

...Columbia County...
  Austerlitz             10.0   842 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Taghkanic               7.0   831 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Ancramdale              4.0   649 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Germantown              4.0   812 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Dutchess County...
  Rhinebeck               6.0   733 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  Red Hook                4.0   703 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Poughquag               4.0   745 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Greene County...
  5 SW Palenville        18.0   717 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  3 SSW Tannersville     16.0   630 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  Greenville Center      11.0   901 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  West Kill              10.0   822 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Cairo                   6.0   632 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Halcott Center          6.0   826 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Catskill                4.0   725 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Hamilton County...
  Wells                  10.0   700 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  7 ENE Piseco            7.6   700 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Piseco                  7.0   816 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Long Lake               3.5   700 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Inlet                   3.0   705 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        

...Herkimer County...
  Ohio                    6.4   855 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  3 E Middleville         5.0   703 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  Dolgeville              4.5   835 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Herkimer                4.0   850 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Ilion                   4.0   700 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          

...Montgomery County...
  Hessville               8.3   857 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Glen                    8.0   801 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Amsterdam               6.8   759 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Canajoharie             6.0   830 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  3 NNE Sprakers          3.5   740 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Fonda                   3.1   723 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Rensselaer County...
  1 NW Wyantskill        12.0   815 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Brunswick              11.5   855 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  1 N Sycaway             9.1   800 AM  3/14  0.96 inches liquid     
  1 N North Greenbush     8.5   726 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  Petersburg              8.0   826 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Berlin                  7.5   703 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  East Greenbush          7.5   630 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  Speigletown             4.0   721 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Hoosick Falls           3.2   806 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Saratoga County...
  Providence             12.5   813 AM  3/14  Elevation 1300 ft      
  Clifton Park            6.5   710 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Galway                  6.2   754 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Ballston Spa            4.5   632 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Ballston Lake           4.5   728 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Saratoga Springs        4.0   813 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Schenectady County...
  Delanson               14.0   919 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Schenectady             6.0   650 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  1 SSW Aqueduct          6.0   720 AM  3/14  NWS Employee           
  1 NNE Hawthorne Hill    6.0   830 AM  3/14  NWS Employee           
  Niskayuna               5.5   820 AM  3/14  Amateur Radio          
  Duanesburg              5.0   728 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Pattersonville          5.0   732 AM  3/14  Meteorologist          

...Schoharie County...
  Jefferson              13.0   800 AM  3/14  Elevation 1900 ft      
  Middleburgh             8.2   630 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Richmondville           8.0   751 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Ulster County...
  Plattekill              6.1   730 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  Rosendale               3.5   815 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Warren County...
  3 WSW North Creek      10.5   804 AM  3/14  Twitter                
  Lake Luzerne            6.2   636 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Queensbury              5.5   841 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Washington County...
  Hartford               11.5   910 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  Hebron                  6.0   813 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Granville               4.0   713 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  Whitehall               1.0   731 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

VERMONT

...Bennington County...
  Pownal                 11.0   741 AM  3/14  Facebook               
  Landgrove               9.0   710 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            
  3 NNE Arlington         5.5   732 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        
  West Arlington          2.0   628 AM  3/14  WeatherNet6            

...Windham County...
  Windham                21.4   900 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  Brattleboro             8.0   730 AM  3/14  Facebook               

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS               
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)               

CONNECTICUT

...Litchfield County...
  2 WNW Warren            4.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 WNW New Milford       1.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 SSW Woodbury Cente    0.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  5 SSW New Milford       0.5   730 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

MASSACHUSETTS

...Berkshire County...
  1 NNW Cheshire          7.2   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 NW Sheffield          2.8   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

NEW YORK

...Albany County...
  3 SSW Altamont         14.8   808 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  4 NW Altamont          10.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 SW Glenmont           5.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 SW Albany             5.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  NWS Albany              4.1   800 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Columbia County...
  1 SW Chatham            8.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 N Valatie             7.2   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  N Ancramdale            6.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 S Valatie             5.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 E Germantown          3.7   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Dutchess County...
  3 NE Lagrangeville      5.8   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 SE Millbrook          5.6   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 NNE Red Hook          4.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 N Rhinebeck           3.6   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Fulton County...
  Gloversville 7nw        8.1   700 AM  3/14  Co-Op Observer         
  1 NE Northville         7.0   645 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 N Northville          5.2   635 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Greene County...
  1 E Greenville         11.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 E Freehold            9.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 N Lexington           9.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  WNW Athens              2.6   730 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Hamilton County...
  Indian Lake             9.3   750 AM  3/14  Co-Op Observer         
  10 SSW Speculator       8.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 WSW Lake Pleasant     7.6   655 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 N Long Lake           4.4   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Herkimer County...
  3 NE Schuyler           4.5   745 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Montgomery County...
  2 WSW Hessville         8.3   800 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 NNW Amsterdam         6.0   704 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  SE Fort Plain           2.3   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Rensselaer County...
  7 NE Troy              10.4   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 E Troy               10.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 NNE Troy              9.1   800 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 SW Stephentown        5.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Saratoga County...
  4 WNW Rock City Fall   12.5   740 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 ESE Ballston Spa      8.0   845 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 W Greenfield Cente    7.0   800 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Schenectady County...
  1 NE Niskayuna          5.9   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  3 SSE Niskayuna         5.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 ENE Schenectady       4.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 NW Scotia             3.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Ulster County...
  4 E Wallkill            4.8   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  4 N Kerhonkson          4.3   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  SW Highland             4.1   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 S Hurley              3.9   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  2 WNW Rosendale Vill    3.8   815 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 ENE Woodstock         1.5   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  5 NW Saugerties         0.1   900 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Warren County...
  5 ESE Lake George       6.0   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 N Lake George         3.9   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

VERMONT

...Bennington County...
  Peru                   11.6   700 AM  3/14  Co-Op Observer         
  3 ENE Manchester       10.5   730 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  W South Shaftsbury      2.5   720 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               

...Windham County...
  1 S Brattleboro         6.4   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS               
  1 NNE Rockingham        3.9   700 AM  3/14  CoCoRaHS   
------------------------------------------------------------
***KBTV***

NEW YORK

...Clinton County...
  4 E Dannemora           5.5   907 AM  3/14  1,200' elevation       
  Chazy                   1.2   654 AM  3/14  Mesonet                

...Essex County...
  1 E Newcomb             6.7   650 AM  3/14  Mesonet                
  2 W Wilmington          3.9   650 AM  3/14  Mesonet                
  3 S Crown Point         2.8   654 AM  3/14  Mesonet                
  4 NNE North Hudson      2.0   651 AM  3/14  Mesonet                
  Moriah                  2.0   710 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Franklin County...
  Lake Clear              6.0   815 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Saranac Lake            4.8   650 AM  3/14  Public                 
  1 S Gabriels            1.2   648 AM  3/14  Mesonet                

...St. Lawrence County...
  9 NE Hammond            1.6   647 AM  3/14  Mesonet                

VERMONT

...Caledonia County...
  Danville                7.0   828 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Kirby                   7.0   800 AM  3/14  Public                 
  West Danville           7.0   900 AM  3/14  1,600' elevation       
  Walden                  7.0   813 AM  3/14  1,640' elevation       
  St. Johnsbury           6.0   901 AM  3/14  Public                 
  West Burke              4.0   738 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Chittenden County...
  2 NW Westford           2.9   602 AM  3/14  NWS Employee           
  Underhill               0.8   845 AM  3/14  1,100' elevation       

...Essex County...
  4 WNW Maidstone         7.5   841 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Franklin County...
  St. Albans              2.0   815 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Lamoille County...
  Morrisville             3.0   733 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Orange County...
  Randolph Center        11.5   800 AM  3/14  1,500' elevation       
  Chelsea                 9.0   730 AM  3/14  1,400' elevation       
  East Randolph           8.0   914 AM  3/14  1300' elevation        
  West Newbury            5.8   630 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Williamstown            5.0   700 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Orleans County...
  Albany                  3.8   652 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Rutland County...
  Shrewsbury             11.0   659 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Mt. Holly              10.0   630 AM  3/14  Public                 

...Washington County...
  Marshfield              8.0   918 AM  3/14  1,600' elevation       
  Fayston                 7.5   735 AM  3/14  1,450' elevation       
  Cabot                   4.0   715 AM  3/14  1900 ft elev           
  Barre                   4.0   752 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Montpelier              4.0   900 AM  3/14  Public                 
  2 NNE Waterbury Cent    3.0   543 AM  3/14  Trained Spotter        

...Windsor County...
  3 S Ludlow             16.0   900 AM  3/14  1.32 inch liquid       
  Andover                14.0   715 AM  3/14  2000 ft elev           
  1 SE West Norwich       5.1   548 AM  3/14  Public                 
  Hartland                2.0   927 AM  3/14  Public                  

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Thanks for the balanced convo but they do suck. I've been burned before.

I never said they were great as operational forecast models. I seldom use them, if at all. At this range, I'd prefer the NBM, HREF, and HRRR over almost anything else.

My point was, if you're going to disregard the WRF-ARW/2 because they're WRF models, you may as well disregard the WRF-NMM model (NAM), as well.

Regardless, WRF-ARW is fantastic for post-hoc analysis using reanalysis data.

Let's be nice to the big, beautiful WRF models (which do have a cold bias). 

The NAM is WRF w/a Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamic core (WRF-NMM). 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/north-american-mesoscale