wolfie09

The real"snowbelt" is just east of pulaski and the 81 corridor, like Altmar/Orwell area, elevation between 500-800'ASL.. Unfortunately you won't find much out that way.. This obviously doesn't include the last couple garbage years.. Outside of that it depends on the year, some years Fulton has had 50" more than mexico and vice versa..We are at the mercy of the wind direction lol 

On the other hand today is looking like a winner, mid-upper 50s forecasted..Windows open activated lol Temp up to 45°..

Mid 20s on Monday is impressive for this time of year, obviously lol Actually all 3 days are quite a bit below average..

The issue with this event as usual is timing lol Guidance flips us to snow around 12-1 am on Sunday, NWS only has 1/2"-1" overnight.. While it might snow most of Sunday it's also looking like light precipitation rates which don't bode well for accumulation, even with temps below freezing..

I'm rocking with the GFS, gives me almost 6"

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

@wolfie09is this area a decent spot? Not to familiar with down in your hood 

Yeah dude that's still pulaski or "fernwood", pretty much the same weather as here.. Early in the season could be some issues with the warm lake..TBH it all depends on which way the wind blows lol Each year is different, once outside the tug it's pretty much equal footing for the lower elevations.. Obviously being a little farther east of 81 would be beneficial as well..Area wise it's nice, country oriented with low crime, just minutes from 81 and lake Ontario..The village isn't NYC but it has all you need besides a hospital (Oswego).. Location wise you would be 30 min from Watertown, 25 from OSWEGO, 35 to syracuse (25-30 to the burbs) and around 35 min from Fulton..So you have plenty of other shopping or dinning destinations.. Good luck with the search my man..I would just advise to find the house that fits you and not necessarily snow chase unless it's the tug haha, litterly any location can get it depending on the year.. Unfortunately this area really underperformed this year...

Some convection has developed, quite a bit of lightning off in the distance and loud thunder, windy AF too lol

NY baseball teams have some pull or money haha..

New York City mayor Eric Adams reportedly will reverse "the private-sector vaccine mandate specifically for performers and athletes" in New York City on Thursday, according to Sally Goldenberg of Politico. 

That would mean that unvaccinated players like Kyrie Irving would once again be eligible to play home games in Brooklyn's Barclays Center, just in time for the upcoming NBA playoffs. 

It would also mean that unvaccinated players on the New York Yankees and Mets would be eligible to play home games when the MLB season begins in April. 

Rgem already starting to do what the rgem does lol Nam not as impressive looking in it's LR but never is..

A more potent shortwave crossing our region Saturday will bring an
even cooler airmass for Saturday Night, with temperatures at 850 hPa
dropping down towards the negative teens Celsius by periods end.
While a mix of rain and snow is possible Saturday evening, this
cooler airmass will promote snow showers across our region, with
lake effect snow by late Saturday Night. Several inches of snow,
especially across SW NYS remains possible by late Saturday Night.

Cyclonic flow in an anomalously deep upper level trough will be
over the Northeast Sunday. A cold front will usher in cold air
across the eastern Great Lakes leading to much below normal
temperatures for the start of next week. Some guidance, as low as -
20C at 850mb by Monday morning will most likely fuel lake effect
snow showers across the eastern Great Lakes with concentration
southeast of the Lakes. Accumulating snow is possible Sunday through
Monday morning. The core of the cold air will move east as the
trough becomes negatively tilted off the New England coast. Snow
showers will taper off Monday and a slow warming trend will occur
into early next week.

It's 44° here with some drizzle but I've also heard a few pellets and maybe even seen a stray flake lol

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Best chance at little accumulation looks to be early Sunday morning.. This is also more of a "lake enhancement" regime so it's hard to trust the globals or any model really lol

Ggem 12z was solid as well, starts out with some westerly enhancement veering northwesterly..

NFL inflation lol

From 120mill in 2011 to 208 mill in 2020..

You guys beat me to the punch lol

He's signing for 4 years 120 mill with 72 mill guaranteed..He is now the highest paid WR in the NFL..

Best chance at little accumulation looks to be early Sunday morning.. This is also more of a "lake enhancement" regime so it's hard to trust the globals or any model really lol

What a crazy month of trades. 

Tyreek hill could be next..

Only 12 to go 

0 GFS was much improved for N/C NY Saturday into Sunday, at least for this run lol Not as good for the Dacks/tug but better for the lowlanders..

Kbgm

The long term is looking unsettled and cold. 850 mb temperatures
likely stay below freezing with temps as low as -18C late Sunday
into Monday so highs will struggle to get to near freezing Sunday
and Monday. 500 mb height anomaly means in the NAEFS area already 2
sigma below climatology but there is still some spread in the
ensembles on where the coldest pocket of air will be so left temps
to the NBM rather than lowering the temperatures closer to the 25
percentile for the late weekend into early next week. Also with the
longer days and higher sun angle it is starting to get difficult to
get temperatures to stay in the low to mid 20s during the afternoon.
Forecast soundings show a shallow cloud depths with the cold air and
thus likely breaks of sun allowing some heating and temperatures
likely slightly warmer than what models are showing for Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Lake effect snow is also a concern with the ice
cover mostly gone with the recent warmth and the lake temperatures
up ever so slightly so chances of precipitation were raised to a
chance from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Wind direction
and band organization is uncertain at this time though some
accumulating snow is likely somewhere across the Finger Lakes region
into northern CNY. A slow warming trend begins mid next week

Kbuf 

Though cold air advection, a mild boundary layer should keep
precipitation that falls Thursday Night and Friday as plain rain,
and not until after an upper level low passes by will it become cold
enough aloft to support snow showers. These snow showers, Friday
Night across the higher terrain will become possible everywhere by
Saturday morning as temperatures at 850 hPa cool to -5 to -7C. As
these 850 hPa temperatures drop towards the negative teens Saturday
Night lake effect instability will begin to produce lake effect snow
downwind of the lakes on a northwest flow. With favorable moisture
within the snow DGZ, it is possible that several inches of snow will
accumulate SE of the Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is very high confidence that we will be experiencing below
normal temperatures throughout this period...especially Sunday and
Monday when the mercury will average a solid 10 deg f below typical
late March values.

The reason for the cold weather will be phased negatively tilted
longwave trough that will be start the period over James Bay and
eastern Canada. As we move out of the weekend...there will be a
deamplification of the longwave pattern so that the coldest air will
eventually be shunted to the east. The cold northwest flow with H85
temps in the minus teens c will support at least scattered lake snow
showers with likely pops being introduced southeast of Lake Ontario.

Latest GFS meh lol At least for the majority of lower elevations which I guess is to be expected lol Nice hit for the north country verbatim..

Little bit of "winter" chill in the air today with mainly 30s, although we did briefly hit 40° before dropping back into the upper 30s..

Euro fwiw

First event and through it's entirety..

NWS graphical forecast shows light snow from Saturday night through Sunday night, not fully ending until Monday AM..

Yeah we have several spokes of energy rotating around the trough..The Ggem sends another one over S/W NY, GFS not so much lol The first"event" is looking to be more of a NW flow/wrap around regime..As it stands now we should see a light accumulation sat night through Sun morning...