Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms.
Mt.Holly:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Synoptic Overview:
The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the
period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for
most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern
periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US.
Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven
convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves
interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries.
Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this
regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal
convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of
appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow).
Dailies:
Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as
high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High
temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only
reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds.
Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday
bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last
night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this
system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The
Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM
and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until
Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to
stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing.
Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for
these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only
Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees
warmer than Monday with winds remaining light.
Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday
however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be
sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM
(therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will
remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the
coast and higher elevation areas.
Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2
inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end
of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon
thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy
and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions
of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side
(after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat
looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the
abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro
threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure.
&&
Upton:
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a
relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling
flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins
to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and
Northeast.
Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through
Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach
95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru
Saturday.
Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this
point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible
MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on
ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for
organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold
front, but low predictability this far out.
&&
