Rtd208

Picked up 0.20" of rain for the day.

Final storm total 4.92"

Picked up 0.20" of rain for the day.

Final storm total 4.92"

Picked up 0.19" of rain so far today.

Current storm total 4.91"

@wdrag Current Mt. Holly discussion for the late week storm. Still not hitting the wind potential to hard but coming around to the heavy rain idea. Upton has similar thoughts.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
  A mid and upper level short wave ridge briefly builds over our 
  region on Thursday, resulting in tranquil and dry conditions. An 
  onshore northeasterly/easterly flow through the day will mean 
  temperatures may be a degree or two lower than today, but still 
  near normal with highs from the mid 50s to mid 60s.  
   
  After Thursday, our attention turns to the next closed low. This 
  low will be taking an inland track from the lower Mississippi 
  Valley to the northeastern U.S. from Thursday into Saturday. 
  Compared to the model runs 24 hours ago, there are some stark 
  differences with the latest runs. For one, most guidance is a 
  bit slower with the precip entering our region, as much of the 
  region may stay dry through Thursday night. The most notable 
  change though was that many of the operational models now show  
  a brief period of cyclogenesis on Friday as the low is centered  
  to the SW of our region (with yesterday`s run, the low was  
  filling/weakening as it approached our region). This could set  
  the stage for a low level southeasterly jet on the order of 40  
  to 60 kt progressing over our region from Friday afternoon to  
  Friday evening.  
   
  If this happens, that would result in significant moisture  
  transport coincident with the best synoptic scale lift,  
  resulting in an increased risk for heavy rain and flash  
  flooding. Not surprisingly, model soundings show precipitable 
  water values well above normal and mean RH values close to 100 
  percent through this time. If this solution develops, the area 
  most at risk for heavy rain would likely be the 95 corridor, and 
  locations just south and east of the fall line (as the low level 
  jet impacting the fall line could result in additional lift due 
  to orographic lift). Thus, I have added in a mention of heavy  
  rain in the grids generally along and SE of the 95 corridor. If 
  there is a silver lining in this solution it is that the area 
  most at risk with this event should be south and east of areas 
  that were the most impacted with the Monday night/Tuesday rain. 
   
  The other thing to watch for in these patterns is the potential 
  for the winds in the low level jet to mix down to the surface 
  resulting in strong winds. At this point, momentum transfer 
  during this period looks poor, so even if this solution were to 
  develop, it appears unlikely that there would be widespread wind 
  gusts of 45 mph+ (wind advisory criteria) on land. 
   
  All that being said, I have hesitation going completely with  
  this solution. In addition to this being a new trend, it is also 
  highly dependent on the location of the entire vertical profile 
  of the low. Small changes in the position, even in just one  
  level of the atmosphere could result in big changes of the net 
  impacts. Thus, will hold off on any flood watches or additional 
  messaging for at least another model run cycle to see if this 
  trend continues. 
   
  && 

Picked up 4.69" of rain for the day.

Current storm total 4.72"

Picked up 4.69" of rain for the day.

Current storm total 4.72"

Picked up 3.90" of rain so far today.

Current storm total 3.93"

Could pick up another 1-2" of rain tonight.

Moderate to heavy rain falling here. We have some sporadic street flooding/water rescues ongoing.

Picked up 3.71" of rain so far today.

Current storm total 3.74"

@wdrag Mt. Holly doesn't seem to be overly impressed with the next system per their morning discussion. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
  The main focus through this period is on the closed low that will be  
  progressing from the lower Mississippi Valley into the northeastern  
  U.S.. This should bring a round of rain starting possibly as early  
  as Thursday night and continuing until the dry slot arrives on  
  Saturday or Saturday night. At this point it doesn`t appear to be as  
  high impact as our current coastal low since this low will not only  
  be taking an inland track, but should also be weakening and filling  
  as it crosses the Mid Atlantic. Once this system lifts away, a cold  
  front could approach our region early next week, though it may not  
  arrive until Tuesday or Tuesday night of next week. 
   
  && 

Picked up 1.20" of rain so far today.

Current storm total 1.23"

Heavy rain here in the Carteret/Woodbridge Twp. area. Under a Flash Flood Warning.

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

 

 

That would cause big time flooding issues. Good thing we did get a chance to dry out for a while after Ida but if that happens I don't think that it would matter.

Not much going on here so far, only picked up 0.03" of rain. I expect that to change over the next few hours.

Apparently the 18z Euro gets the storm down to 969mb. 

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wont change title numb ens despite being close to that for just the first storm.  I think I want to see what we have on the ground by 8P Tue before I 2" to the weekly total.  I think we have our hands pretty full with Tuesday-Tuesday night. 

@wdrag any additional thoughts on the Friday/Saturday storm?

Upton also hitting the late week/weekend system hard in their Hydrology Discussion.

Rainfall of at least 1 to 3 inches, and possibly as high as 2 to 4
inches, will accompany a slow moving low pressure system late
Thursday night through Saturday night. The potential for the
heaviest rainfall looks to be Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Impacts will depend greatly on antecedent conditions from the storm
impacting the region early this week. At least minor impacts can be
expected.

Discussions from Mt. Holly and Upton.

Mt. Holly:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
  This remains a low confidence but potentially high impact forecast.  
  The main features to watch over the next 24 to 36 hours are the  
  closed low currently over the mid Mississippi Valley, the warm front  
  currently bisecting our region, and a mid level short wave trough  
  which was over AL/GA as of the 00Z soundings. The interaction of  
  these features is what is expected to result in cyclogenesis later  
  today off the GA/SC coast which will become the coastal storm to  
  impact our region tonight continuing through Tuesday. 
   
  As mentioned above, this is a low confidence forecast. The warm  
  front is much slower than any of the models had depicted even with  
  the 00Z runs. I am also concerned that at least some models appear  
  to have initialized with the center of the mid level low too far  
  south and east compared to what 00Z soundings and satellite trends  
  would suggest. If there is in fact more separation (distance wise)  
  between the mid level short wave trough and the closed low, then it  
  is possible the coastal low will develop further off shore.  
  Cyclogenesis occuring entirely off the coast is already a  
  notoriously high uncertainty pattern, and the previously mentioned  
  trends just add to my uncertainty with this forecast. 
   
  That being said, this has the potential to be high impact for our  
  region, so here is a summary of the potential hazards through  
  Tuesday: 
   
  Heavy rain: Heavy rain at this point is my biggest concern, and the  
  area of concern hasn`t changed much, generally favoring coastal NJ.  
  There is potential that the axis of heaviest rain could be slightly  
  further south along the southern NJ shore, so Cape May and Atlantic  
  counties were added in to the watch. Additionally, based on guidance  
  trends, increased the QPF slightly.  
   
  Severe Thunderstorms: Limited instability, but significant shear  
  (both speed and directional shear) means that there is potential if  
  any thunderstorms (or even just showers with a stronger updraft)  
  develop, that stronger winds could mix down to the surface.  
   
  As far as timing, expect most of today to be dry, but some initial  
  showers could move in or develop (especially if the warm front is  
  still in the area) by late in the afternoon. The bulk of the rain  
  should be from late this evening through much of the day on 
  Tuesday. 
   
  && 
   
  .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 
  Major storm just off the coast will be in the process of pivoting  
  eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday as a digging vort max reaches  
  the Mid-Atlantic. As it reaches the base of the longer-wave trough  
  around 12z Wednesday, the orientation of the vorticity maximum will  
  allow for the increase in eastward momentum of the main upper low by  
  Wednesday afternoon. Of course, a number of questions remain about  
  this process, since the interactions among the various perturbations  
  and the predecessor impacts of widespread precipitation/convection  
  in tandem with the rapidly deepening low are generally low- 
  predictability phenomena. Nevertheless, with the notable model  
  trends on keeping the low closer to the coast and for a little while  
  longer, suspect stronger winds will linger near the coast for a time  
  Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with gusts exceeding 35 to 40  
  mph probable along the immediate coast. Not out of the question a  
  wind advisory will be needed for these areas. Additionally, showers  
  will likely rotate south-southeastward on the west side of the low  
  in much of the area Tuesday evening, slowly shifting eastward as the  
  low begins its inevitable acceleration offshore. By Wednesday, most  
  if not all of the precipitation should be done for the region, with  
  breezy north winds also gradually declining during the day. Highs on  
  Wednesday should range from the mid 50s in the Poconos to the mid  
  60s in Delmarva. 
   
  Sky cover may diminish Wednesday night as north to northeast winds  
  slowly decrease, which may be favorable for some stronger cooling  
  than on the previous night. Still, think winds will not completely  
  decouple, so forecast lows are mainly in the mid 40s to around 
  50. 
   
  && 

Upton:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With a warm front north of the area for today, some mid level
ridging will be allowed to momentarily take place. A deep layered
southwesterly flow regime sets up for today allowing temperatures to
warm. As a result dew points readings will get into the lower and
even a few middle 60s, which is rather humid for late October. There
will be some instability into the afternoon and early evening,
however due to an overall lack of forcing not expecting really
anything impactful in terms of sensible weather through the day.

By this evening the jet axis begins to round the base of the upper
level trough off to our west as it swings east. As this occurs the
stronger mid and upper level forcing will begin to get underway.
This should result in moderate to heavy rain to develop towards and
after midnight across the area. Much of the guidance has a potent
mid level shortwave pivoting through during the the overnight
period, followed quickly by strong PVA at 500 mb into Tuesday
morning. The winds at 850 mb also begin to back from the south to
more out of the east. A strong LLJ gets into the region into the day
on Tuesday with a double barrel low type structure. The exact
placement and interactions of the low(s) will determine the
intensity of the LLJ, thus determining where the axis of heavier
rainfall will take place. Also there is the potential for strong
winds. With the low levels becoming more stabilized it will be
difficult to get the stronger winds down to the surface, at least
initially. With some elevated instability and a strong LLJ
developing into Tuesday morning expect more organized heavy rainfall
along with embedded convective elements, a few rumbles of thunder
are possible, if not likely. Over an inch of rain widespread across
the area is looking increasingly likely from midnight to the Tuesday
morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong forcing due to a strong WAA pattern and the potential for 50
kt or greater easterly winds at 850 mb, along with strong PVA as the
upper level trough axis and 500 mb low gets just south of the area.
This should keep the best lift over the area with periods of heavy
rain throughout much of the day on Tuesday. Some guidance does have
some drying occurring in the mid levels late Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. This will depend on the exact placement of the area of low
pressure. If the low gets further north then some dry slotting may
occur which could bring some of the heavier rain to an end maybe a
few hours earlier than expected. In any event, a significant
rainfall event looks like a proverbial lock due to the deep and
strong WAA / Carlson conveyer belt set up. A strong LLJ gets going
during the day on Tuesday, with the model guidance of the LLJ
placement and intensity varying. Have issued a Wind Advisory for far
eastern sections of CT and LI for late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
There is the potential as the low deepens further and one low begins
to take over that the winds could peak at 45 to 50 mph across far
eastern sections with the winds more out of the northeast and north.
The mostly likely time for this would be during Tuesday evening and
into the first half of the overnight as the low may get slightly
further to the east. The heavier rain would then end from west to
east based on the latest timing. With the center of circulation
potentially getting further east as the low gets more vertically
stacked the storm should get to its peak in terms of intensity and
lower surface pressure readings. Rainfall totals as this time look
to be on the order of 2 to 4 inches. HREF 24 hr. PMM QPF has
localized amounts of 5 to 7 inches which is tough to come by.
Hopefully this scenario does not come to fruition as this would lead
to widespread flooding issues. Thus continuing with the Flood Watch
across the entire area for tonight into the day on Tuesday.

On Wednesday the low will gradually get further offshore, especially
by the afternoon. The current thinking has chance POPs giving way to
slight chance POPs from west to east through the day as the back
edge of any rainfall begins to pivot off to the east. With
completely dry conditions returning by the late day and evening with
mostly cloudy skies giving way to some clearing during this time
frame. A gusty northerly flow will have temperatures running near
normal with mainly lower 60s for afternoon highs.

&&

06Z NAM is very wet for the NYC metro. Rainfall amounts in the 4-6" range.

With the potential for several inches of rain over the 7 days we are actually lucky things dried out for a while after Ida. With that said flooding still looks like a concern with storm #1 and potentially storm #2.

Overnight low of 41 here.

Current temp 42

Overnight low of 41 here.

Current temp 42

The GFS keeping putting down a swath of 3-5" rainfall amount right over NE NJ and the NYC metro especially on the 06z run. Otherwise widespread 1-3" amounts throughout the region. Pretty strong storm overall at 975 mb. 

The NYC metro should see a widespread 1-3" rainfall w/locally higher amounts especially as you head further north and east. Severe weather also possible tomorrow night into the first half of Tuesday. I think the SPC may eventually go with a slight risk for the area. We'll see. Wednesday could be a windy day behind the system. 

Storm #2 Friday into Saturday details TBD but potentially stronger and more impactful then storm #1??

The fuse was light and the active pattern has now exploded after an extended break post Ida.