thewxmann

Tornado wind estimates are 3-sec gusts. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html

Glad to hear you are okay JoMo... very sorry to hear about the people you know who have died.

There was one in eastern MS, near Philadelphia.

I'm going to play anal devil's advocate here, just for the sake of discussion. First off, an EF5 is an EF5 is an EF5... an EF5 in the SE does, by definition, the same damage an EF5 does in OK. I would agree that for two equal-strength tornadoes (i.e. equal 10m wind speeds), the SE one would do more damage because of its debris. Nevertheless it wouldn't do exponentially more, because impact energy per unit volume goes linearly with the density (KE = .5mv^2). And the difference isn't really that significant - even the strongest tornadoes can't carry heavy trees around for too long in its vortex. So lets say there's a 20% increase in the density of whatever stuff hits you, due to debris. That's like going from 190 mph damage to 230 mph damage in a maxi-tornado... you're f'ed either way, and it doesn't make that much of a difference. What will have a significant impact of kinetic energy is the velocity of the winds, since the former goes by the latter squared. And I argue that the more debris in the tornado, the slower the winds inside rotate, due to frictional effects and energy transfer to whatever it picks up. (The blades turn noticeably slower when you have ice.) Furthermore, in a hard soil, foresty environment, you're going to have significant slowing of ground-level winds due to frictional effects with terrain - think about how a hurricane's wind speed decreases over land due to frictional effects. Put the Moore tornado in, let's say, Bibb Co, AL, and assume the windspeeds decrease by 20%. That's a 32% reduction in energies, and given an equal density of material, that's going from 210 mph damage to 135 mph damage... EF5 to EF2. So in fact, I'd argue that SE tornadoes are, on average, weaker than Plains tornadoes in the damage sense, even if their vortices are of the same intensity, in the above-ground level rotational speed sense. (Edited extensively for math, wording, etc, sorry about that)

Longer, more detailed PNS for Joplin out: (Timestamp is off by an hour haha) PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...JOPLIN TORNADO GIVEN A PRELIMINARY HIGH END EF-4 RATING... * DATE...22 MAY 2011 * BEGIN LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN * END LOCATION...1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF DUQUESNE * ESTIMATED BEGIN TIME...541 PM * ESTIMATED END TIME...550 PM * MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4 * ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...190-198 MPH * ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 OF A MILE * PATH LENGTH...7 MILES * FATALITIES...116 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY * INJURIES...400 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY * BEGIN LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.57 W * END LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.39 W NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS RATED THE TORNADO THAT KILLED OVER 100 PEOPLE IN AND AROUND JOPLIN AS A HIGH END EF-4 TORNADO. BASED UPON SURVEYS COMPLETED TODAY...MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 190 AND 198 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 3/4 TO ONE MILE. THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 541 PM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTRY CLUB AND 32ND STREET. ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCTED TO FURTHER DEFINE THE STARTING POINT AND INTENSITY AT THIS LOCATION. DAMAGE BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TORNADO CROSSED MAIDEN LANE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARLY ALL WINDOWS ON THREE SIDES OF ST JOHNS HOSPITAL AS WELL AS TO THE ROOF. THE TORNADO FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE HOSPITAL. THE HIGHEST RATED DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS TO A CHURCH SCHOOL THAT HAD ALL BUT A PORTION OF ITS EXTERIOR WALLS DESTROYED AS WELL AS TO A NURSING HOME. WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ESTIMATED AT 160 TO 180 MPH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROY OVER 100 HOMES BETWEEN 32ND AND 20TH STREETS. THREE STORY APARTMENT COMPLEXES HAD THE TOP TWO FLOORS REMOVED...OTHER TWO STORY COMPLEXES WERE PARTIALLY LEVELED. A BANK WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VAULT. A DILLONS GROCERY STORE ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL DAMAGE. LASTLY...THE EXTERIOR AND INTERIOR WALLS OF A TECHNICAL SCHOOL...A MORTAR AND REBAR REINFORCED CINDER BLOCK BUILDING...FAILED. THE TORNADO CROSSED RANGELINE ROAD NEAR 20TH STREET. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST EAST OF THIS INTERSECTION WHERE A HOME DEPOT WAS DESTROYED BY AN ESTIMATED 190 TO NEARLY 200 MPH WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE CUMMINS BUILDING...A CONCRETE BLOCK AND HEAVY STEEL BUILDING...HAD ITS STEEL ROOF BEAMS COLLAPSE. SPORTS ACADEMY AND THE WALMART ALSO SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20TH STREET DESTROYING NUMEROUS WAREHOUSE STYLE FACILITIES AND RESIDENCES THROUGH DUQUESNE ROAD. WINDS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO APPROACH 200 MPH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROYING NUMEROUS HOMES BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNED SOUTHEAST TOWARD INTERSTATE 44. SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL BE REQUIRED TO DETERMINE THE SCOPE OF ADDITIONAL REPORTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 71 AND INTERSTATE 44. The path length will likely be longer than reported thus far... since there were reports of damage on I-44 as the storm passed through.

2005 would be a valid comparison if Rita had smashed the Houston-Galveston area In many ways, this spring has been so much worse - we had not one but TWO events that have changed the way we think about tornado fatalities in this country. That's two "once in a generation" events within a month of each other.

It's their way of saying "it's probably an EF5 but we're going to do a detailed analysis to make sure it is, so we're just going to say it's an upper bound EF4 for now."

Two possibilities for the death toll I'm bringing out here: 1) Chaser videos indicate that many people were still out on the streets when the tornado struck. Is it possible that many people were killed in cars? 2) The tornado plowed right through a large shopping center on Range Line on a Sunday evening. Maybe some people were eating dinner there. Maybe many people were killed there? (Edit: okay this has already been brought up.)

Kinda off topic even more, but what is with television networks airing specials coinciding with big tornado events? TWC was planning to air a special about the April 14-16 outbreak on April 27... Discovery airs a special about April 27 on the day of the Joplin tornado...

Associated with the Bangladesh sounding...

Let's play calculate that EHI!

It definitely wasn't... the two tornadoes were spawned by different supercells. However, there was a different EF3+ that went through Marion County that killed 6 in that county... that may have been a continuation of the Smithville tornado.

Fatality list by county: http://ema.alabama.gov/filelibrary/PressRelease/NR_updated_storm_information_april28_2011_8pm.pdf

Smithville Src: http://www.wapt.com/r/27701487/detail.html

It was warned well before it touched down.

Since you have as a good of a chance dying a vehicle as in a mobile home in a tornado, I'd choose the former option if you lived in a mobile home. That would be the lone exception however.

First of likely many violent tornadoes: This is a very high-end EF4. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 111 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011 ...PRELIMINARY EF-4 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... SMITHVILLE TORNADO * COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE * LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: DAMAGE AT SMITHVILLE 344 PM CDT * BEGINNING POINT: UNKNOWN * ENDING POINT: UNKNOWN * RATING: EF-4 * ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 190 MPH * PATH LENGTH: UNKNOWN * MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE * FATALITIES: 13...5 STILL MISSING * INJURIES: 40 * SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: DOZENS NEWLY CONSTRUCTED TWO STORY FULLY BRICK HOMES LEVELED. TREES DEBARKED. PROFESSIONAL BUILDINGS DESTROYED. A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING PROGRAM IS THE RECEIPT OF STORM REPORTS FROM ALL OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IF YOU WITNESSED OR ARE AWARE OF ANY STORM DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS OR TORNADOES...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...OR FOLLOW THE LINK AT THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/MEMPHIS.

I just woke up... this death toll is a joke right?

The resemblance between Tuscaloosa and Andover - even the date! (almost) - is uncanny. All the Tuscaloosa videos look so much like the Andover tornado...

Death toll now up to 83, 61 in AL alone: http://news.yahoo.co..._severe_weather Note that this does NOT include the additional deaths indicated in the MS LSR's, and several unconfirmed TN fatalities. When all is set and done the death toll will likely top out above 100. To put this in perspective, the last time a tornado outbreak killed over 100 people was 4/3/74.

Unfortunately, even though the technology today is great, it is not good enough to predict where a tornado will be "down to individual homes" within 10 minutes, much less 20. Tornadoes are fickle and capriciously controlled by the mesos they are spawned from.

Normally I'd agree, mempho - and this advice would work well if you lived somewhere like Picher where the population is relatively low and the tornado very visible. But we're talking about a highly populated Southeastern U.S. with trees and (in some cases) rain-wrapped tornadoes. Imagine if all of Bham evacuated. It was evident to us that the storm would pass to the north of downtown, but the average layman will just run like hell (e.g. the Rita evacuation). If mass panic had occurred, the streets would be completely clogged and the tornado would have barreled through those vehicles stuck in the road and killed hundreds. Many would have driven right into the tornado's path. The best advice: if you live in a mobile home and a setup like this occurs, visit a friend's permanent home the next day. You have a 50% chance of surviving a violent tornado in a permanent home. You have a 0.1% chance in a mobile home. But otherwise, you just have to accept that a setup like this will kill a lot of people. There's not much you can do about it but hope and pray. I believe there's a paper that talks about population increases and its effect on tornado fatalities. The general idea is that we've passed the global minimum in tornado fatalities/year. Warnings and education can only do so much... the rest is luck. And as population increases, the dice becomes increasingly unfavorable. More homes will be hit, and more people will be killed. After today, the tornado death toll this year will surpass 100 for the second time in 5 years. Before this timeframe, 1998 was the last year in which over 100 people were killed. But you have to go all the way to the 1970's to get to the one before that (lemme check on that though). EDIT: actually it was 1984, and prior to that 1974.

This is the only the second outbreak since the Super Outbreak to have >70 fatalities (the last one: 5/31/85).

There's no reason to speculate on the death toll right now. The vast scope of this outbreak means that many areas will take several hours... overnight... and into the morning tomorrow to comb. Really the death toll is still completely up in the air right now.

Back in the day, an outbreak like this would kill several hundred people. The warnings today saved countless lives.