ncforecaster89

2 hours ago, Calderon said:

That's footage from Typhoon Sinlaku hitting Taiwan in 2008, just really zoomed in on a small truck from Earth Uncut TV's YouTube channel.

Thanks for pointing that out.  I should’ve taken a few minutes to look at the video before sharing it, but I trusted it was real.  Will never understand why people do such dishonest things.  After viewing it, it’s obvious it’s a loop of the same footage being run repeatedly.   That aside, James captured great video on that Typhoon you mentioned.  

Link just shared with me of "live" conditions in the eyewall from Nick Panico (he's not there, himself):

https://www.facebook.com/ProfeciasMundiales/videos/401497981040549/

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

At what point do they stop naming Greek letters and start naming next year's storms?

There are fifteen letters left in the Greek Alphabet after “Iota” is used.  Theoretically, they would have to use up the entire Greek Alphabet, first.  Since there’s no way we’re getting another 16 “named” TC’s after soon to be “Iota”, we have plenty of names available.   

24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed

What really stands out about this system is that it literally made landfall at its peak extreme intensity.  Truly remarkable system, and I fear for those unfortunate souls who are having to  endure its wrath!

6 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

I think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip.

As many others have alluded to...I wish the U.S. could make a financial arrangement whereby Recon would fly into the strongest Typhoons that are genuinely threatening land like Haiyan, Meranti, and Goni.   

22 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

Almost did with Dorian and with AGW it’s way more likely.

We did actually have such an intense monster hit the Florida Keys in 1935.  Just didn’t have the technology then to accurately measure its intensity.   Way before AGW became all the rage and will happen again, regardless; just simply a matter of time.  

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd. 

I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " 

Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those.  

My personal opinion is we (any and all of us chasers) should absolutely be billed for any services required for our rescue if such a need were to arise.  While residents are being ordered to evacuate these areas, we are intentionally doing the opposite.    
 

Simply put, we are each choosing willingly to put ourselves in harms way and are 100% responsible for our own actions.  How anyone could rationalize we deserve any such preferential treatment is beyond me.

On 8/27/2020 at 3:48 PM, Floydbuster said:

These guys put so much hard work and effort in, I don't wanna get specific or use names.

I will say one chaser in particular has shocked me how he has become a world-wide phenomenon and gets awesome footage everytime. Another chaser is fantastic and puts in hard work, but we never see anything good. A dark webcam of a wave? It's not 1958. 

It's a risky business in more ways than one. What is funny is that I actually feel like Jim Leonard got the best footage back in the 1980s and 1990s. I don't understand why we have such better technology and so many powerful hurricane opportunities and yet the footage often seems...boring.

Jim Leonard was an extremely thoughtful individual who truly wasn’t in it for the notoriety, but simply wanted to be in the storm.  His footage from the eyewall of hurricane Allen way back in 1980 was the first time any chaser captured MH winds on film.   

There’s an audience it seems for each type of chaser personality that streams.  I plan to begin live streaming in the near future. If and when I do, those who want to be entertained by “end of the world” narration aren’t going to be too interested, as I’m of the mindset that it’s all about the storm and not about me!  Likely will just set up a cam and let it stream the action as I’m filming with another close by.   
 

I’m also not one who’s a big fan of countless selfie’s for the same reason.  To each their own, as long as they aren’t hurting anyone, I guess!

6/15/20 (edit):

20/10/5

Decided to add an additional named storm, to my initial forecast to differentiate it from the forecast of "thunderman."  Still think 19/10/5 is most probable.    

19/10/5

This forecast is derived from accounting for the two preseason TS' and adding them to the average of all "cool" Neutral to La Nina ENSO season figures of 17/9/4 (1995-2019).  Added one additional MH due to my expectation of a more favorable MDR.  

UKMET continuing the wrong kind of trend, with the 00z guidance.   

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, bud. It never goes away...you just hone your ability to cope more as time passes. It pissed me off and motivated me to get my life together. Six years of sobriety later...

I think this one is dead for me, as far as big impact goes.

Not to derail the thread, but I'd be remiss if I didn't commend you on that incredible accomplishment of making it  six years of sobriety.  I've seen many friends and family members struggle to overcome their addiction to alcohol.  As a result, I have the greatest respect and appreciation for those, like yourself, who fight that good fight!

Like you, I'm struggling to see how this will deliver significant impacts to SNE...outside, possibly the Cape - which is why I mentioned that storm.    

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, I hated that non event...I had just lost my dad and was looking for a distration....that storm wasn't it.

First and foremost, I'm so terribly sorry to hear about you having to endure the loss of your dad, Ray!

Even on the Cape, it verified with far less snow totals than guidance was suggesting, right up to go time.  

It may be false hope, but at least the models are giving us a legitimate reason to hold onto that "hope"...just a little bit longer.  

I desperately miss being back up in this area, and find it hard to conceptualize that it may very well be three full years, at least, before there's another chase-worthy SNE winter storm.  Will continue clinging to " hope" as long as it's still a reasonable and viable proposition!  

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC isn’t bad.... good event SE Mass and crushes Jimmy 

That GGEM/CMC run reminds me of the March 26, 2014 blizzard.  Very similar track if I recall, correctly?  Wasn't much impact outside the Cape in the 2014 storm...but there's more substantial effects for SE Massachusetts, on that particular run, verbatim.

Edit: There's still time for a favorable outcome, but the 00z trends on the GFS certainly weren't an encouraging sign! 

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

Of note, aside from the upgrade of Betsy to a Cat 4 as noted above, Carla is also now a confirmed Cat 4 landfall into Texas. Haiti was hit by two Cat 4 hurricanes within two years in Cleo ('64) and Flora ('63). Belize was also impacted by a Cat 4, Hattie, '65.

Full report can be found here:
1961-1965 revisions

 

Don't typically disagree with their reanalysis, but I felt the available data justified a 100 kt Cat 3 designation for Dora 1964...at landfall in NEFL.  

Edit:  Thought I'd share a few links of historic footage taken during and/or after some of the hurricanes from the latest reanalysis period.

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

You and Josh may be interested in this:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1

 

Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

Thanks so much for sharing the link and summarization of the paper.   If it occurs during my lifetime, I will most certainly be there to document it, as well!

13 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Agree on all accounts.  Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years.  Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah I am talking about you. You’re annoying with all your paragraphs. 

Lol.  I know I can be too long-winded.  Need to work on being more concise. 

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Me me me me me me me

If you're referring to me, as it appears you are...you couldn't be farther from the truth.  Then again, that seems to be a regular thing with you.  

One thing I'm certainly not is self-centered or an attention seeker...unlike many other chasers.  If anything, I'm probably too empathic and truly care about others.   But, what would you know about that?  I'm not the one consistently posting such immature and rude comments.  

3 hours ago, Benadrill said:

I dunno. Kind of look the same as they both go to a full white blur. 

Thanks for the objectivity.  Greatly respect that. 

Although some may not realize or appreciate it, my own personal opinion isn't rooted in the fact I was the one who shot the footage at that location in MB.  It's all about Michael's intensity and effects...not anything to do with me.

It's not like I've been suggesting Dorian didn't produce Cat 5 conditions in Marsh Harbour.  Josh's footage, MH's position in the eyewall, and the engineering evaluation by Steer all support Cat 5 conditions occurred at MH.  

Thanks again for taking the time to objectively review the video, and I hope you have a great rest of the day!

33 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

This is ridiculous. Post your Mexico Beach video that you think looks similar to Dorian.

And, you say my posts "have an extremely salty tone?"  Btw, I sincerely apologize if my posts come off that way, as that's certainly not my intention. 

I have no problems sharing the video.  It's a long one, for it's basically all the raw footage and isn't edited to just show the highlights.  Keep in mind, the strongest winds were on the backside after the wind shift in the video.  This matches well with the Recon and radar data that showed the peak winds were in the SE eyewall.  It's virtually complete whiteout at the peak.  

There's a lot to see in the video, but for highest winds...best to view from about the 58:00:00 mark to 1:04:00 and again around the 1:06:00 mark onward to about 1:17:00, as the section in between is right before the wind shift shot from over the railing in the NE eyewall.  Peak winds somewhere during that 15 minute period or so.

Not simply the aforementioned data and insane conditions encountered at the western-most portion of MB, but also the damage evaluations performed by steer who showed debarking at both locations from each storm, respectively.

No doubt both locations saw genuine Cat 5 conditions, and it's ok for people to disagree on the exact winds experienced in Marsh Harbour...given the lack of data compared to what was available with Michael.   

45 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

Your posts just have an extremely salty tone to them. 

This isn't "scientific" but video from Mexico Beach or even the Air Force base area compared to video from Dorian look nothing alike. Dorian looks 100x worse. It's really visually apparent which hurricane had higher wind speeds.

Obviously, I disagree, and it's ok that you view it differently.

Edit: I certainly wouldn't argue the winds were stronger at Tyndall.  They weren't. 

Anyway, I genuinely hope you have a good rest of the night!

28 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said:

Thanks for your interest in my work, Tony. I appreciate it.

Please read my last post in the main Dorian thread.  

So excited you were able to get into the eye and core of Dorian, and the same applies to Jim Edds, as well.  Very disappointed that James wasn't allowed to get to the Island, himself.   

Naturally, I'd also liked to have been there, but I've long ago resigned myself to the reality that I'll never be able to chase outside the U.S. (my wife will never allow it).

Now, things would be completely different if I missed any Cat 3 or higher landfall in the U.S.  To this day, I wish I'd been able to chase Andrew.  Unfortunately, my studies were paramount at the time and I have to remind myself of that.  Charley is another I regret not chasing in Florida, but work obligations made that impossible.   

Anyway, I eagerly look forward to documenting the next major hurricane in the U.S., as well as seeing all the footage you capture during your own chase exploits.  

Have a great rest of the night, Josh!