Jump to content

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,736

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region.  These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance.  There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days.  Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers.  Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away.  Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not.  For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in the lower 20s.  BRRRR!!!!!!!!!Current MESO OBS
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense.  These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce.  For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area.  Stay tuned!



  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the Wednesday event alone.  Coastline gets their snow Wednesday into Thursday from two likely different events

  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday.  NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball.  They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record.  Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better.  Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams.  He actually did it several times.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point.  It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions.  It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products.  I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects.  If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise.  Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork.  I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world.  I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Subtle Adjustments can bring us from the dog pound to the Great White Hurricane!
    **2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Southern New England Weather Update**
    Simply put, the snow lovers across the region are at the mercy of the giant ridge over the Davis Straits and northern Canada territories.  The -NAO regime with a large 50/50 eastern Labrador vortex is currently running the weather pattern across the Eastern US.  It is dominating the weather scene.  Dry and cold arctic conditions we feel today are from a dominant northern stream where north westerlies at H5 are driving our weather.  The next few days will keep a cold and dry perhaps sunny regime over the region as clouds begin to infiltrate the South Coast of RI, CT and SE MA on Tuesday.  Light snows should begin to break out across western CT and should be shunted to the south thereafter with little if any impacts to the rest of the region.  This I can say with 60 percent confidence.
                The next stop is the 28/29th window in which a monster surface center will develop either off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or the Delmarva peninsula.  We lack any confidence at this time to make a definitive forecast of any kind, whether it would be snow, rain, sunny skies or cold cloudy days.  We just have no confidence.  Seven-to-ten-day forecast is simple at this moment, highs in the mid 30-s along the Cape and Islands, and everywhere else below freezing for the next week until next weekend when a cutter could present itself if the block breaks down.  Again a lot of ifs and what’s until we get a better model consensus later down the road!
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America.  The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA.  The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels.  The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to Greenland supports a -NAO blocking pattern regime to expand and stay put through the end of the month.  How long this lasts no one knows for sure, but its presence while does not guarantee snow, it will bring a stormy and much colder air pattern across the eastern CONUS.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is the final map for this storm tomorrow, snow begins after 11 pm west zones in CT, 12 am for RI and 1 am for Eastern MA.  Heavy snow will overspread the area within an hour of starting, bands look to penetrate the Southern Coast of New England, with perhaps potentially 1"/hour rates for a time.  Snowfall map represents the heaviest QPF and snow outputs.  I think while I am aggressive, I think this will pay off.
     
     

  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude.  This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain.  GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle.  This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st.  This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October.  We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer.  Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend.  With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England.  Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating.  However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week.  Still a ways to go...
×
×
  • Create New...