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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday.  I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm.  There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    Reminder...

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    My novel, being self-published on paper back and eBook forms on Amazon will become available for purchase on January 1st, 2021.  My name is James W Nichols, with the title of "The Awakening Dawn: The End has just begun!"  It would be nice to get a fanbase going and build it upwards.  It is hurricane disaster based!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor

  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    There are two camps for the scenarios on the midweek storm potential for December 12-14th 2017.  I will illustrate them below.  Scenario One is a full blown Blizzard from NYC to BOS to Bangor, ME.  Scenario Two favors the Great Lakes and NNE with the heaviest snows.  Which one happens will be determined by jet dynamics, phase potential, and baroclinic zone potential placement as well as track of clipper and arctic shortwave troughs in the flow.  Scenarios are not forecasts, they are there to show potential either way.  I will be updating the blog with my newest snow fall map for this weekend's storm shortly.


  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.

  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude.  This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain.  GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle.  This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st.  This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are still too progressive with the arctic shortwave moving through Canada and Great Lakes region it is digging southward, not southeastward.  This will bode well for potential snowfall for Cape Cod on Wednesday.  If this shortwave can produce its own surface low, it will enhance the low-level flow over Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod, producing an inverted trough that can produce rapidly deteriorating conditions in a matter of minutes.  This inverted trough could produce up to 3-6" or more depending if it has time to mature and develop.  Models might be on target, but I am looking at the nowcast situation, we have a developing surface low east of NC coast, this is in a more northerly position than the models had 18 hours ago, also the precip shield is developing SW to NE and pivoting northward on the front end with a large push of heavy rainfall off the NC coast and into Hatteras, NC.  We have an additional energy behind the main arctic shortwave, that is diving through western Ontario, Canada and is pushing the overall momentum of the trough southward not eastward.  If this trough energy can dig south of Long Island, NY we can see up to 6"+ from the inverted trough.  Again the pivotal point will be tomorrow afternoon 18z observations.  Stay tuned!  I will issue a snowfall map tomorrow morning.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense.  These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce.  For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area.  Stay tuned!



  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent
    -winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday
    -Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter
    -as Nor'easter develops a potentcy wind threat increases out of the northeast
    - as nor'easter strengthens coastal flooding becomes a threat
    -Please stay tuned to the latest updates from the Taunton NWS WFO
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While I am sounding the alarm currently for preparations, I am not sold on the current solution in the model consensus.  WE have explosive dynamics coming into play that the models are overlooking currently.  First we have arctic air spilling over the Gulf Stream gradient, that is so useful for nor'easters.  Second we have an arctic jet disturbance that is so amplified and caught in a very amplified flow the trough will move into a negative tilted state.  This will allow extreme cyclogenesis to occur south of Southern New England and east of NJ.  Models including the 12z GFS and 12z EURO have caught their eyes on the second shortwave in the bunch and want to amplify the flow to favor this nor'easter.  The current amounts in the model fields are 3-6" and 8"+ for the coastline of Massachusetts.  However, I think this may be a case of overachiever central, a massive amount of snow is possible.  I will have more after the 18z GFS
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm.  Stay tuned!
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain.  Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models.  2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!
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