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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s.  Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area.  Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY.  Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season.  Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020.  Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning.  Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week.  Stay Tuned!  We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast.
     - JWN Productions!
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday.  There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm.  The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the presence of a strong upper level low over the NE pacific Ocean influencing the departure of the positive values in the PNA region.  If this disturbance were to weaken or split into two groups, one moving westward into the northern Pacific and the other piece of the low moving into the US, then the ridge would be able to build itself upwards once again and positively influence our troughing in a more positive way this weekend.  However, there is poor sampling in this part of the Pacific Ocean, and there is no way in knowing how the PNA ridge will react to a split in the disturbance energy field.  Some models collapse the ridge temporarily while others recharge it later on into Monday through the rest of the New Year first week.  therefore, models are now signaling there will not be a full phase between the Arctic jet and the Pacific jet so there will be no bombogenesis present this weekend, however, models are keying in on a potential one jet bombing low pressure center as it takes off, off the NJ coastline sometime Sunday and produce its own snow shield, this could put down a 1-2" swath of snow from western VT to eastern and southern ME and north of the MA Pike, while areas south of the MA Pike see 2-4" generally, while the South Coast of MA, Ri and SW CT see about 4-8" due to the high snow ratios and then the cape cod area east of Barnstable and Hyannis could see upwards of 8-12" or more of snow as ocean effect adds to the fluff factor and a very little of moisture can lead to high amounts of snow.  I am expecting models to back more precip onto the SNE coastline than currently projected first because of the OES processes and also because I expect the storm to be further northwest in the end and strengthen a little faster in earlier developmental phase.  I will have another map after the 00z runs tonight if I need to change anything.

  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area.  Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through.  Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA.  My snowfall map is for New England only

  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.  The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow.  Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction.  This is very poor for this range.  Update on the 18z model cycle.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are still too progressive with the arctic shortwave moving through Canada and Great Lakes region it is digging southward, not southeastward.  This will bode well for potential snowfall for Cape Cod on Wednesday.  If this shortwave can produce its own surface low, it will enhance the low-level flow over Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod, producing an inverted trough that can produce rapidly deteriorating conditions in a matter of minutes.  This inverted trough could produce up to 3-6" or more depending if it has time to mature and develop.  Models might be on target, but I am looking at the nowcast situation, we have a developing surface low east of NC coast, this is in a more northerly position than the models had 18 hours ago, also the precip shield is developing SW to NE and pivoting northward on the front end with a large push of heavy rainfall off the NC coast and into Hatteras, NC.  We have an additional energy behind the main arctic shortwave, that is diving through western Ontario, Canada and is pushing the overall momentum of the trough southward not eastward.  If this trough energy can dig south of Long Island, NY we can see up to 6"+ from the inverted trough.  Again the pivotal point will be tomorrow afternoon 18z observations.  Stay tuned!  I will issue a snowfall map tomorrow morning.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm.  Stay tuned!
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor

  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    March 11th 2017 605pm entry:
    Very cold air mass overhead the Northeastern US tonight.  temperatures for Sunday morning lows are around 10-12F over the Cape.  Forecasted temperatures won't break 25 the next two days Sunday and Monday.  This arctic air mass will be the reason we can expect a snowstorm to occur some time Monday night through Wednesday morning depending upon if the storm slows down at all, right now the 12z and 18z runs today show a progressive but easterly track with less phasing, although I don't think this is about a less of a phase.  While common knowledge dictates that the stronger the phase the further west the storm tracks is correct most of the time, the 18z GFS and NAM are both east of the 12z runs positions, and therefore show a faster transfer of energy between the clipper (primary) low and the coastal storm that takes over earlier on the latest guidance.  Given nature of the H5 trough, this should allow the coastal storm to intensify rapidly and be in the lower 970mb range, rather than the higher 988mb range the GFS has.  Therefore winds should gust between 70-90mph, 70mph if the GFS is right or 90mph if the stronger solutions are correct.  Remember the faster the transfer of energy between the primary OH Valley low and the coastal low off the coast of SC occurs, then the further eastward it will travel, I don't expect a far east track, but one down the middle of today's guidance, over the benchmark, east of ACK and CHH of around 970-980mb low pressure center producing a few feet of snow from DC to BOS with NYC to BOS receiving the mega amount of snowfall of around 24-30" of snow.  Coastal New England including Cape Cod should remain all snow and receive up to 34" of snow.  Those are my thoughts right now, subject to change.
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters.  Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well.  A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W.  Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.  Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude.  This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain.  GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle.  This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st.  This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense.  These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce.  For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area.  Stay tuned!



  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.

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