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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    As Celtics Nation and the sports world knows, the one player that everyone associates with the Celtics organization for over sixty years has been the one and only Tommy Heinsohn, one of four players ever to be in the hall of fame in Springfield, MA as a player and a coach and as a broadcaster.  Tommy earned eight NBA championships with the Celtics in his nine year NBA career and two more as a Celtics head coach in the 1970s and had spend the final 39 years of his wonderful life as a NBA broadcaster for the 17 time NBA Championship Franchise Boston Celtics.  Mike Gorman his play by play man side by side for the last 39 years, brought up a tremendous idea that the Celtics players should have his Celtics jersey number 15 retired to be pinned on the players' jerseys during the games this season, then Brian Scalabrine went a step further and said the NBA as whole might want to show continuity as a whole behind the legend of the NBA with his impact beyond the Celtics.  Tommy will forever be missed, but we know God has welcomed him to eternal life!  November 10th, 2020 a day we will never forget a year which we hope will leave in the rear view mirror for reasons behind simplistic beliefs.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm.  Stay tuned!
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    GFS and EURO, as well as the new experimental GFS, show the potential for a clipper on Christmas Eve of next week Monday.  Six days until this event, which is not a lot of time to discuss the potential.  However, models are not squishing the energy anymore and therefore not shredding the disturbance as it goes through the flow over the eastern US.  Time will tell if this event becomes more substantial, but there is potential.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple.  Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures.  By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November.  the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best.  Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon.  Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay.  Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed.  Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved.  Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME.  Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month?  Absolutely, but how accurate is the model?  Horribly inconsistent, but when it smells out a storm potential this is the time range it does it in.  For the last two consecutive model runs for the GFS it has shown two monster storms back to back mid month of December, this first one is a triple point low, the second is a consolidated low, but we have potential for snow next week, so I won't get carried away with this shortwave, as the first shortwave with this new pattern can slam New England hard with heavy snow.  So I will focus next few blogs on the short term.






  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night.  This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark.  Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward.  Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Next week could give SNE our first real shot at accumulating snow threats with at least two upcoming events in the next 10 days to start winter off the right way.  The GFS, EURO, and EPS mean all show favorable pattern showing up in the 3-10 day range giving SNE shots at snow finally.  With a stout +PNA ridge out west leading to northern stream disturbances diving southeastward out of Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada we could get a few timing issues fixed and phased super bombs could be producing rounds of heavy snow even over the Outer Cape Cod and island of Nantucket the next week plus into the end of the month.  Stay tuned!
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog.  First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity.  It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean.  TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air.  Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday.  This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon.  This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection.  Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system.  Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it.  Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year.  Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity.  100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength.  If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today.  Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these storms could be tornadic, but most likely damaging wind threat.  Stay tuned!
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup.  Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019.  Thoughts in the comments section?
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are aggressive with storm's developing from the deep southern jet stream branch with occassional diving northern jet stream branch with cold shots, these two streams could combine to produce three snowstorms this week.  Sunday night/Monday, Wednesday/Thursday, and again the following weekend all threat timeframes for substantial snowfall.  18z GFS produces 12-18" of snow over CHH the next 7 days.  Models are in two groups, it is pretty much the EURO vs everyone else.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I could use the presence of an experienced writer who loves to write and work on a story that will blow the top off the competition.  Every movie studio will want this script someday, if we work hard on it together.  Speak up, I need you to help out.  You need to want to write with me.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    If you want to help with writing a movie script about the end of the world you can help me out, just add your email address I will email you a copy of the character list and the start to my new movie script I am writing.  SO I can use anyone with experience or with the love to write and who is dedicated to writing a masterpiece of art.  Thanks!
     
    James Warren Nichols Productions
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