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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup.  Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019.  Thoughts in the comments section?
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Parameters are in place for an outbreak of snow showers and snow squalls on Cape Cod, early Thanksgiving through Friday afternoon of this upcoming holiday week.  GFS forecasts -20C 850mb temps, coupled with +10C of ocean water temperatures equals a very unstable atmospheric profile, I will have to watch this potential closely as it is still about five days away.  But the potential exists at least for festive flurries on Thanksgiving day.  Stay tuned!
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are still too progressive with the arctic shortwave moving through Canada and Great Lakes region it is digging southward, not southeastward.  This will bode well for potential snowfall for Cape Cod on Wednesday.  If this shortwave can produce its own surface low, it will enhance the low-level flow over Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod, producing an inverted trough that can produce rapidly deteriorating conditions in a matter of minutes.  This inverted trough could produce up to 3-6" or more depending if it has time to mature and develop.  Models might be on target, but I am looking at the nowcast situation, we have a developing surface low east of NC coast, this is in a more northerly position than the models had 18 hours ago, also the precip shield is developing SW to NE and pivoting northward on the front end with a large push of heavy rainfall off the NC coast and into Hatteras, NC.  We have an additional energy behind the main arctic shortwave, that is diving through western Ontario, Canada and is pushing the overall momentum of the trough southward not eastward.  If this trough energy can dig south of Long Island, NY we can see up to 6"+ from the inverted trough.  Again the pivotal point will be tomorrow afternoon 18z observations.  Stay tuned!  I will issue a snowfall map tomorrow morning.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday.  Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England.  Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands.  One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour.  Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada.  Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.

  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend.  With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England.  Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating.  However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week.  Still a ways to go...
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday.  Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY.  Snowfall map below:

  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018.  Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is.  these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well  for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight.  We shall see!  Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining

  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain.  Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models.  2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.

  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area.  Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through.  Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA.  My snowfall map is for New England only

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