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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    A microburst potential exists on Tuesday morning as a screaming Low Level Jet with hurricane force winds possible for Cape Cod if the surface low travels over the top of the area.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A rather potent -NAO block is occurring in our atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere this upcoming week into the weekend.  The GFS forecasts 850mb temps to be rather mediocre for intense Ocean Effect Snows, but with northerly winds at the surface through 850mb, there is a strong chance we could see ocean enhanced snowfall later next week, around the 30th of November into the weekend.  Stay tuned!
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z EURO and EPS mean show potential for blocking pattern for an east coast snowstorm, with cold air present, and a coastal storm on the New England coastline, models show potential for winter weather on the 27-29th of November, this could be a long duration event, but it could be rain on the coast.  Right now specifics are not smart to forecast given its still 5 days away in time.  This is still an eternity.  However, models have flipped the pattern in the longer range to a less favorable pattern for cold and snowy chances and instead have a ridge of high pressure over the region.  This could easily change back and forth for the next few days.  Snow is a potential, not the forecast.



  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Good evening folks, 
    This is my latest blog entry and the first official entry on the potential Blizzard of 2018, or Storm of the Century potential on January 3-5th 2018.  The first image is water vapor imagery taken as of this hour, it represents the different ebs and flows in our country.  Also it currently has three disturbances that will impact our storm potential this week.  The arctic disturbance is circled over NW Canada in a pink dot, the second disturbance is in red, the Pacific shortwave and then the third is in green the sub-tropical jet which is already providing moisture and rains in TX and LA this evening and will enter the Gulf of Mexico in the overnight into the early morning hours.  This green dot disturbance will be the southern stream disturbance that gets carried northward as our storm develops by the next disturbance in the polar jet and the arctic jet.  These will be our catalysts towards a destructive nor'easter, perhaps with the intensity we have never witnessed south of the benchmark in history.  I believe the only way this system hits the benchmark head on as it tracks up the coastline is if the trough is more centered over or west of James Bay, Canada and recent runs have adjusted this direction.  So I am now saying the track officially of the storm should be between 25-75 miles east of the 40/70 benchmark location as a sub 960mb low, stronger than the Superstorm of 93, stronger than the Blizzard of 2017, stronger than the Blizzard of 2016. 2015 and more.  My second image is my snow map of impacts to the East Coast and potential snow accumulations of light. moderate and heavy.  And I highlighted in red where on the coast can expect blizzard conditions.


  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor

  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello folks,
    I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future.  This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW.  A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time.  A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure.  What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, how much snow would fall and how would it unfold in SNE.  I have a snowfall map from the Midwest Clipper and the Northeast Nor'easter coastal low.  Check it out and I hope it holds everyone off until the short story is finished.  Take care.
     
    James Warren Nichols
     


  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    "Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology.  Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquakes erupt along the fault lines of the Earth.  This novel will be such an experience, that this author has never written before in his lifetime, it will be a journey through the characters that has never happened before in our lifetimes.  This story will bring heartache, suspicion, suspense, heroic behavior and the ultimate giving of sacrificing one's life for the better good, for the ultimate good, in saving a person's life, putting a person's life ahead of their own safety.  The ultimate sacrifice.  Our hero Jack and heroine Abi, take us on an adventure, one only dreams of in the end, and today that journey begins.  I cannot wait to give you this novel, because I want to surprise the world with my talents as a tremendous author with the talents of a great writer.  This novel will prove that to the reader.  You will want to continue to read my novels as they will be better and better, filled with tremendous action.  Good luck, this might take me a full year to work on from now until Thanksgiving 2018.  I will cherish this journey, because I want it to be the best out there ever.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    If you heard the names of Franklin, Gert and Harvey, you would think, hey those are just general names and nothing bad to think about here, but you put a hurricane in front and now you have, Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Gert, and Hurricane Harvey, now you have built in fear.  What if the US was in an unprecedented times, the weather was king and the oceans were warming without the impacts of global warming, nope Solar radiation was normal, so it can be that, no what if you were a meteorologist in the year 2029, trying to figure out the forecast number of intense hurricanes to form without the knowledge of why the ocean was warming into the 90-95F range from Puerto Rico westward to the US coastline throughout the Gulf Stream?  You would only figure out the warming cause after the season was over, when no one was no longer in danger of hurricanes.  The result is three super intense, super insane category six hurricanes with winds sustained over 200mph, gusts near 250-300mph, with Gert the most intense near 255mph sustained wind field at the core making landfall on SE Florida, Miami ground zero, then all three cat six hurricanes make landfall on separate areas of the US coastline within 36 hours of time.  This is a tremendous story of man versus mother nature.  I hope you want to read something awesome.  I will attach it below.  thanks!
    - James Warren Nichols Productions
    Dawn Awakening, Opening Segment.docx
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005.  I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years.  In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity.  Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself.  Struggling with family problems that latter turned into internal emotional distress later down the road, which end up costing my USAF experience to cut short, the weather was an outlet, an intellectual and emotional and a mental release from the reality I was facing within my developing maturation process as well as the developing family dynamics with four children between 15 and 6.  My family dynamics truly showed, that not one family ever escapes the torment that life brings on a daily basis.  Life torments us on  day to day regime.  It is how and what we decide to do in the face of that chaos that determines our future.  This novel series all came from a dream I had that one evening.
    The Awakening Dawn - novel one,  -  From Dawn Until Dusk - novel two,  - The End of the Awakening - novel three,  --
     The friends of Jack and Abi, Marie Givens and Michael Reed who are also dating each other, go on a tremendous journey that impacts their families, their friendships with each other, and the couples inter workings.  While their relationships are changing, natural disasters of epic proportions start to develop and impact humanity.  The first novel is about three catastrophic plus level hurricanes that make landfall on the US Coastline, East Coast and Gulf Coasts.  Hurricane Franklin, Gert and Humberto all reach catastrophic plus levels of 250mph or greater wind speeds sustained, and minimum central pressures of lower than 700mbs.  These massive beasts kill over 400,000 each.  The total loss of human life just in the US is around 1.7 million.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean territory, over 300,000 additional lives were lost in the Turks and Caicos, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
    in the second novel, Jack and Abi begin their second chapter with their newly born child, Jaye is born into the world of chaos around them.  As newly appointed Joint Weather and Science Center now undergoing development of a new building in northern Florida, it is the combination of Climate Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, National Environmental Prediction Center and other NOAA/NWS services combined with Geological US Survey and other government run organizations regarding science.  With the temporary center in Norman, OK their new life has begun.  Across the Pacific Ocean, a massive geological eruption of magnetic/magma and energy occurs in the middle of the Philippines archipelago.  A combination or sequence of five massive and catastrophic 10.0 or greater magnitude earthquakes erupt from 50 miles east of Luzon, and the eruption line stretched to 50 miles west of Manila, Philippines.  Sarah Irving is lost in this disaster as is the other 98% of the 94 million people population.  The magnetic energetic pulse emanates towards Japan, erupting near Tokyo and into the city, Japan suffers about 96% of population loss.  These pulses head all the way to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the biggest earthquake erupts at 12.5 magnitude about 25 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  When the energy pulse settles down, ending in the Mediterranean Sea, after several more massive and catastrophic quakes erupt the pulse dies in the mountains of Nepal near Mt Everest.  The maritime earthquakes caused massive breaks in the earth's crust, allowing very hot gases and magma to flow into the ocean floor and the waters.  Several of these quakes allowed the water near Puerto Rico and westward to the East Coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico to heat over 105 degrees Fahrenheit.  Oceanic cities and cities along the coasts of countries that relied heavily on the fish industry lost billions of pounds of fish due to the abnormal heating of the ocean water they lived within.  Dead fish began to litter the surface across the western Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans.  We end the novel with a native of Cuba seeing a patch of dead fish rise to the surface as the red sun sets in the background.
    in the third novel, the end of the Awakening, society has one choice, live to the end.  Catastrophic oceanic changes lead to changes in the atmospheric patterns across the western Hemisphere.  As the oceanic Sea Surface Temperatures have rose to 100+ and fish species have died off, humanity looks to other resources to feed the millions.  Then as a new monstrous threat is literally a few days away, the 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters do routine missions and ready for the new hurricane season.  On june 11th, 2030, their mission into a newly designated disturbance, designated Invest 90-L the L is the symbol that the invest is in the Atlantic Ocean basin.  Flight USAF2411, led by new major of the USAF, the disturbance was nearing the East Coast of the US, but the Gulf Stream was heating all the way to 115F as far north as 42N: 70W locations allowing any disturbance to take advantage of the warmest recorded oceanic surface temperatures in this part of the Globe.  The same situations were occurring in the Pacific Ocean.  Throughout the hurricane season, a new bread of hurricanes developed due to the warmest temps of the ocean, called the Hyper Cane, dubbed so by Hurricane Specialist Dr. Kerry Emanuel who hypothesized that these monsters were likely back in the time of the dinosaurs, where the oceans were hit by asteroids allowing the ocean to heat to amazing temperatures.  12 of these storms developed, over 500 mph sustained winds, however, part of the theory was that given the intensity of these storms, they were likely extremely small, almost only 20 miles in diameter, but it is just a hypothesis.  Then on November 30th, the official last date of the hurricane season, NASA or the remains of the organization detected a 100 miles wide asteroid within three days of an impact on Earth.  The last three days, on earth, people were embracing each other and just waiting for the last stone thrown.  The end occurred on December 2nd, 2030, the massive 100 miles wide rock spilt the earth in half entering the core, and the core exploded and the earth blew apart into a gazillion pieces.
    The END! 
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC.  This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC.  This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **Alert Level - Awareness!**
    Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness.  Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period.  January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period.  We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle.
    That is all for this moment, another alert level will be issued tomorrow around the same time, we will either continue alert level awareness or upgrade to potential.  The next update tomorrow evening.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday.  Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY.  Snowfall map below:

  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week.  Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US.  We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength.  We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow.  However, this is our first legit shot at something significant.  Stay Tuned!
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is my final map for this snowstorm.  Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm.  Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod.  Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands.  Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall.  Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday.  I will get video of the heavy snow as 1"/hour snowfall rates are possible for a time Tuesday morning.

  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon.  It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.

  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday.  Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday.  Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February
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