metalicwx366

3 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Post some pics man, might be all we get this year. Hope you are having a blast!

Yeah, I’m hoping we get a big Lake (Sea) Effect snow event here this year. Usually favors the areas south of us, but we can cash in sometimes. Japan is a beast when it comes to Sea effect snow. They receive insane amounts of snowfall. 

6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

You still fascinated with wind?? You should get a job at Mt Washington!  

Yeah lol. 3 years in Hawaii was nice with the trade winds where it’s almost always windy. Other than that, weather was lame with a few fun events thrown in there. 

It’s quiet in here. I haven’t been on much in the last year either. So excited to see snow this year in Korea. 

Onwards to Korea in a few months. 

3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

I thought this was pretty cool to see in NWS Jacksonville discussion.

“Mainly dry conditions were occurring across interior southeast Georgia, and only a few hundredths of an inch are possible in this region tonight. The radar this evening was showing enhanced reflectivities across the Suwannee River basin and Alachua County, but this is due to bright banding. Bright banding is relatively rare in our area, and this is due to snow melting as it is falling aloft, with a film of water on the melting snowflake causing the radar to see it as a giant raindrop or small hail. By the time it reaches the surface, the precip is just a cold rain. The radar, however, will overestimate precipitation in the bright banding areas, so will have to rely on observations.”

8 hours ago, jburns said:

Here's something you don't see very often. A parade of hook echoes across SE Georgia.

 

Crazy rainfall event ongoing down there. Been raining nonstop since Saturday night. Waycross has gotten like 9 inches of rain so far. Lots of street flooding pictures I’ve seen today. 

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Outside of the flooding rains on the big island which was well modeled, this was an historic bust

Lol they just gave the all clear here. 

Now everyone is returning all their water and other supplies they bought. 

38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

@metalicwx366 I can smell the rain and visually see a shower passing by to the South now. Even a few sprinkles here. I think a sign of things shifting a bit to a more Southerly flow.

Yep, radar starting to fill in slowly. 

0Z GFS and HRRR still showing the potential of some significant rainfall with a heavy band of rain that sets up over the area tomorrow. Sort of reminds me of Darby from 2016 when we got significant flash flooding after the system passed when flow turned southerly. 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Power just flashed here for the first time 

What kinda winds are you seeing there? We just gusted up to 40MPH.

Rain we are getting currently still associated with wet trades.

35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I guess the million dollar question is does that heavy band of rain SW of Lahaina make it to Oahu?

No. 

Not one band of rain associated with Lane has made it up here without falling apart. 

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There’s basically nothing left, the rain Southwest of Maui is breaking apart now. The only real organized area is North and East of Oahu and over the big island. I highly doubt Oahu ends up seeing much impact now.

Yeah I’m pretty much done with it now. Any significant rain won’t happen till tomorrow late morning or afternoon looks like. 

Been one hell of a storm for Big Island and Maui rainfall wise though. Insane rainfall totals over there.

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There is a pretty expansive area of heavy rain just to the North or Maui now which could make it to Ohau.

Yeah, but we probably aren’t going to see anything on the leeward side lol. 0.04 so far. Decent winds here though. 

Need quite a bit more to reach those 8-12 inches of rain. 

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well it’s pouring over the mountains so maybe it’s finally getting close enough to sustain these rain bands. 

Yeah it’s finally raining here. 

Lol the 0Z CMC keeps this storm well to the south of us.

Models still can’t agree when we are 24 hours from potential landfall. 

Just had a gust up to 38MPH otherwise nothing too crazy right now.

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Winds now out of the southeast and rain showers look as if they dried up again. 

It does seem like some of the drier solutions may end up verifying.

That’s what I was saying earlier. The models don’t really show any significant  rain for a while. 

Where are you at getting SE winds? Still NE here and definitely picking up. 

I’m seriously having doubts about that 8-12 inches of rain here. Especially if this thing tracks towards Maui/Big Island. We stay on the dry NW side. 

Darby we didn’t get any rainfall until after the storm passed when the flow became southerly. 

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Can someone please post Euro rainfall totals? Thanks in advance 

Here are the rainfall totals through Sunday. About 5-7 inches of rain for us. 

40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I disagree. The windward side of Kaua’i for example is the wettest place on earth. I have been on Oahu when it rained 6”+ in 12 hours and the only issues were puddles and the ocean turning brown. Tropical islands with steep topography are accustomed to big rain. The islands are made out of volcanic rock which is hard and stays in place. Soils are also thin. 

I’m sure there will be some isolated flood damage and some power outages. But I think the media is over hyping this one after Maria and  PR last year. 

Nah, I have to disagree with this. This was earlier this year from 3-5 inches of rain in a couple of hours. 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone have rainfall data for the 18z HWRF? Looks like a possible landfall right near PHNL

Nope. Takes it basically on the same path as the latest GFS and GALWEM model runs. 

So much uncertainty/model disagreement 24 hours out from the event. We basically just went with the westward track and discounted all the models that show this getting sucked up into the big island or Maui,

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

EAS just activated here for Hurricane Warning.

My phone just sounded off really loudly. Didn’t even receive a notification.

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Riding it out here on the SW corner of Ohau in Ko Olin’a.

I’m right outside the Hickam AFB.

Trying to go storm chasing?

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

FWIW in the last half hour I’ve seen three military cargo planes heading towards PHNL and now one stealth bomber.

Shhh.... No you didn’t. 

So busy here at work. Dealing with Lane, and the other two typhoons hitting Korea and Japan all on the same day. So glad I don’t work Friday and Saturday. Friends at JTWC also can’t catch a break.

They aren’t  taking chances here especially considering what happened at Guam with typhoon Maria last month. 

The panic has already started here.  We are in TCCOR 4 which means there is the potential for destructive winds within 96 hours. It disseminates to the entire installation, so people are already out and about getting supplies, water , and the usual.

So much hype here for Hurricane Hector. This happens everytime. It’s clear it won’t hit us unless we get some dramatic northward shift, but all the news channels are hyping up a hurricane hit.