Ace

With the rain on Monday and the potential storm later on in the week, could be a very dreary and unsettled week.

It begins...

https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1133458403379089408?s=21 Ryan says since we are near boundary we might have good chance at some significant severe storms later. Storms do like to ride the warm front boundary

Persistent SE Canada troughs due to Atlantic blocking has not allowed for any sustained heat for those of us north of 40N. Blocking breaks down in the long range, but no big signal for big heat through Day 10.

The forecasted warmth for this weekend/early next week is becoming more muted on the modeling. The Euro still likes a brief warmup though for Monday although nowhere near as intense/long in duration as what it showed previously. Areas to our west and south are gonna be the big winners for any warmth on Days 5-7. Modeling is honing in on warmth past Day 9-10 though. Delayed but not denied?

GWO and MJO are moving in the right direction. Obviously the stratospheric warming is taking place is well. January is gonna be fun.

I think that's what he meant. An extreme EPO ridge and western -NAO block probably wouldn't be able to coexist, but a slightly negative EPO and NAO would. His statement was a bit misleading though and one would interpret his words as him saying ridging cannot occur in both areas.

Agreed. Lots of people have been posting images from weathermodels.com on Twitter lately. I have heard good things about truewx.com as well

After impressive warmth this week, looks like any cooldown will be brief as the temporary Western Ridge moves east past Day 10.

Above average temperatures are on tap for the next two weeks as persistent troughs sets up over the West Coast. Btw, need a new subscription service for the winter. Weatherbell or Stormvista?

Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though.

Good to see the forum back!

Cape on the increase. Forcing was looking like an issue, but small cells are popping in New Jersey. Timing may be a bit off though, since the most conductive parameters for rotation may came an hour or 2 after storms roll though. I'm thinking SE NY should get the best storms in a couple of hours.

Great to have you as part of our subforum OHweather! It is well known that around these parts that warm fronts in the morning have some of our best storms. I think this has good potential. Attached is a sounding of the latest HRRR in New Jersey at 16Z. Check out those LCL's! Overall 3k Nam is a bit similar. This could be a good shot of severe around here as for the mid morning to early afternoon timeframe. At least were not going to watch storms weakening as they travel from west to east as they tend to do most of the time