aldie 22

Bottom line regardless of how much... everything has shifted NW a bit at 12z. Who knows if it does anymore later or at gametime but here we are

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Precip field did end up a tad north tho

We should call this storm the brine verifier 

The GFS is in the kitchen 

I guess if it is going to be super cold with any amount of precip falling the roads could get slick in spots. So far even the no good ICON was pretty close to getting the half inch line up to my backyard. I guess we have a little bit of time to see if this thing can make just a little more jog north or even better get others to show a capture

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Enough guidance gets the back edge of coastal enhancement over me that I 100% want a more amplified and developed system. It can only help me. I've been thinking 3-6 for like a week. No reason to change my mind but I do believe my chances (as they stand right now) favor the higher end of that and it may come a little easier than I first thought. Pretty cautious though. This entire evolution has been tough to figure out since d1 too

Eta: my bust bar is sub 3". That would be pretty lame for an 8-10 hour event lol

I just looked up where you live now...yeeks...do you have an accent now so you can fit in?

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Remember when people laughed at me the other day when I said is this going to be a Miller B screw job. 

The other day? 

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ICON is unusually important for trends. You'd think consensus would narrow sharply over the next 2 suites 

I mean you sort of have a vested interest in some NW movement of the snow line right?

Just now, stormtracker said:

Stop talking about the fucking 3k NAM.  It doesn’t show what we want!  Ignore it. 
 

We are so back yall! 

RIGHT....the 3k's wheelhouse is like 4 hours the 12k's wheelhouse is at least 3 times that!!

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year.   

I like that you said IF

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

FV3. I would love to steal a half inch out of this at this point. 

That seems like a jump north as well

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

How about 100 instead. 

I'd be cool with 30

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z 3km NAM 10:1

Kuchera 

 

Dang even SOUTH Bel Air gets screwed....I feel even worse for people in NORTH Bel Air

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol


.

The way all of the models performed with this one early on your statement is spot on for pretty much all of them.

3K is probably more realistic but even that is quite the jump north and in juice

Just now, dailylurker said:

I honestly can't remember one time the nam was right. Maybe once in 2014 lol

I'm of the opinion that during a full winter season each model is correct at least once. It's the Weather53 theory of forecasting. 

Just now, CAPE said:

The NAM is telling us something..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

put me out to pasture.

Certainly there are a million reasons to dismiss the NAM....but should you?

I think the NAM is right with this one...

This storm has created a few lasting memories...just last week I was telling my wife as we were looking at our snow stick ornament in the front yard "can you imagine that thing with 15-20" piled up?" We both laughed and hugged and then went to dinner. It's the little things 

2 hours ago, Deck Pic2 said:

I stick with it through March.  Too many late season storms the last 10 years to just move on.  

Lol creative name

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

I don’t think you guys realize how a disaster this winter was. We had wall to wall cold this winter and still couldn’t above average in most areas

11 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

For 2026?

Give or take 

30.7 anxiously awaiting my snow

Just now, mappy said:

Justin Berk mentioned it this morning. 

Thanks I also think Millville mentioned it on Saturday or something. I have no expectations with this storm but a bunch of people in the SE are probably sweating bullets right now.

Didn't someone say that the storm was coming on shore last night or this morning? Seems reasonable to think that it may probably do something silly on this afternoons runs...good bad or ugly

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Thread is getting good now lol.

be honest who’s peeking at those 12z runs

I check the models in July why wouldn't i check them in mid February