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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    LOL. I was typing up the same thing as you were. Nothing did perfect. They all added value and data to making the right forecast. I really frown on people casting off a model because it does not show what they want.
  2. Bubbler86
    I think if one looked back it would see each model got different aspects of the system right. It seems the Nam did better synoptically/forecasting the large scale dry slots and eventually track of the low, but other models had a better handle on the initial slug of snow over us. I think the best thing is to take them all seriously and try to use all the data to make sense of how one things will play out or has played out in the past.
  3. Bubbler86
    Nothing here right now but my car is covered again so we got a good 1/2" at some point this AM.
  4. Bubbler86
    I forget which one as well but yea something I was looking at showed that Rain + getting up to you from MD.
  5. Bubbler86
    Yea, when the storm first got into the Nam's range of 84, it showed what most here PA, MD, VA did not want and as usual there was a lot of "the Nam is out of range" talk. This happens every year. Sometimes the Nam screws up royally but it seems to be that outside being low on snow totals to start (re too much warm intrusion in the UL's), it did quite good at foretelling the important parts of the storm.
  6. Bubbler86
    The Nam's snow maps the last few runs were closer to reality but the 1-2" it showed for the LSV initially busted low. Here is 6Z yesterday, basically 24 hours ago, and it was not too bad. I am guessing overall it did the best as most other models understated the warm intrusion and dry slot.
  7. Bubbler86
    That is crazy low for you but reminds me of the model runs with 5 different levels of accums over Adams.
  8. Bubbler86
    Just browsed some other forums and saw mention that it is sleeting in Erie. Prop's to the app running former primary for putting its mark on this one.
  9. Bubbler86
    Surprised it has been so bad tonight. On the snow thing, those one or two 3" measurements in Waynesboro are a bit suspect. Wonder if they corrected that?
  10. Bubbler86
    Just had another gust to 40. Coming out of the East and hitting a different side of the house, than normal, is making for some strange and unsettling sounds. Really surprised we still have power.
  11. Bubbler86
    Thanks, makes me feel a bit better. Just up the hill from me. Surprised they are that high but if they held snow for an extra 30-45 min, that would have given them 1-2 more" at the rate it was coming down. It was sleeting so hard that I had to do my driveway again to get it off.
  12. Bubbler86
    It's really blowing here. We are almost into the dry slot near the low. Sustained is around 30 here as well.
  13. Bubbler86
    High gust so far was 40 mph around 830pm.
  14. Bubbler86
    Torn between getting one more TD I guess.
  15. Bubbler86
    Up to 28 here. Hrrr has the eastern lsv getting into the 40's briefly before pulling in colder air on the back side of the low. No sun should limit the pack damage. That heavy rain though
  16. Bubbler86
    Big Ben"s final drive?
  17. Bubbler86
    Severe thunderstorm warning south of us.
  18. Bubbler86
    Snow pack protection. Beef it up. Lol
  19. Bubbler86
    Have not had time to analyze too much but I feel like the GFS was on the non Miller A train first, the Nam (like usual it seems) was fairly decent in forecasting thermal issues over there and of course the dry slot.
  20. Bubbler86
    27 here at 10PM
  21. Bubbler86
    I think the GFS was the first to go away from the Miller A solution. If so, props to it.
  22. Bubbler86
    The forums 3 most vocally followed football teams are all going to fall today. Disappointing for everyone. Wanted them all to win.
  23. Bubbler86
    HGR still reporting snow.
  24. Bubbler86
    Dry slot is coming for me. Could not sleep with the sound of the sleet pounding on the house so glad to see it.
  25. Bubbler86
    Yea, it snowed for 6.5 hours. The last 2 hours were Moderate to heavy the whole time. No way we only would have had 3".
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