Bubbler86

And I am in Florida. LOL. That band of heavy snow out near Cumberland looks to have Franklin and Adams in its sights. Our areas look great if the qpf gets into them.

Popped in to see how things were going...surface temps seem a tad warm right now and DP's are already in the mid 20's but like the latest GFS depiction of really putting the LSV just on the other side of the R/S line making it jackpot town. It's where you want to be.

If I thought it was going to lay on the roads I would say get the plows ready but not sure it lays much on primary road surfaces.

No mention of the 18z gfs. Sheesh

I did not have time to go back and look a the specific days I was referring to but I remember two things I saw....one more close to the 16th or 17th, what I thought looked like a phase opportunity, then the 20th for more of an old fashioned over running chance. Tied up a bit so cannot give it much more thought but did not want to let the thread drop without me giving an answer. I just quickly glanced at the 12Z GFS and the resulting weather modeled, outside patterns, is same old/same old for this year...like you mentioned...wrong side of the boundary and little in the way of CAD hopes. I see Dax had some good news from the EPS.

As you have probably seen me mention I stay away from some of the more technical meteorological definitions because I do not always understand them well enough to comment and I think there is too much weight placed in trying to define patterns into each category however what I saw on the 12Z GFS (did not look at 18Z) was a trough that was threatening to go negatively tilted with LP's near by in both the Northern and Southern Stream (and an HP just departing to our North East). It did not work out on those panels but to me it was the closest thing to a SEC/MECs I have seen so far this winter. In fact there was more that one opportunity on that 12Z GFS with other chances of boundary snow. The cutter parade has been a nightmare for at least two winters in a row now.

I definitely like the mid January potential the GFS has shown the last few runs. Pattern wise it is close to something interesting.

Early 12Z runs have it going from a developing low going under us to more of a Miller B like situation with the resulting transferred low OTS. Frustrating that MR model runs continue to change so drastically.

Funny but I did not see one mention in the MA thread about the NAM but only looked at two threads. I was up at Cowans Gap today and some of the smaller trees are indeed budding there as well. Crazy. Temps have been mild but not "that mild". Edit-Just saw they have a thread called Worth Pattern Since 1990 or something like that...and mention it in there. Tuesdays event is a classic boundary/get it while the going is bad type snow for the MA. The LSV is in a decent spot based on today's model trends if you disregard the GFS.

Per usual it needs to stretch down to Central Florida to give me the white stuff next week :-). There is always a snow chance when I go away.

Yea, our cold snap last year was end of January. Beginning of January temps were very similar to now though we were getting small snow events every few days (nights since the daytime temps never stayed below freezing until the 21st).

The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork. I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again. But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out. In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week. Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter.

The weeds are punting their off season.

So we ended up about 20 degrees higher than you today. Assuming the NWS forecast for you was similar to mine they busted about 15 too low in your hood.

It was about 400 feet away an hour ago and down under 200 now. LOL. I feel like I should be blaring a fog horn or something. Interesting weather during our "winter" of 2019-2020.

Yep, my own little slice of summer. Though the temps have dropped and the fog is creeping back down the mountain now.

@Cashtown_Coop we were touching a bit on micro climates a couple weeks back, with the ice in your back yard and 40's and 50's in mine, and I just spent the day in Thurmont, Cascade, and Pen Mar mired in fog and mid 40's and arrived home to sunny and low 60's. Just a couple miles apart. This pic tells it all. My development is the white group of houses just to the left of the silo at 1/4 way up the mountain and just a few hundred further up the temps drop 10-15 degrees in what looks like the top of a marshmallow sundae when taken a mile back away from my place.. Cool and sad at the same time (why I rarely get ice storms).

Well my early Jan predict of some snow is turning into yet another cutter. The zonal flow has not materialized as hoped.

Was on Sideling Hill range east of Breezewood and it was 63 and more that an hour in the sun would have produced a burn on sensitive people. Great day to be outside.

Very favorable track on the 0Z Euro in early January. Just need to find the cold....about 10 degrees worth.

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion.

Last year around this time we were saying the weather reminded us of Early October so that is a move in the right direction I guess.

57 here and feels great for the day. Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.

Eyeballin' it the gfs has been much better as of late as to the 5 to 7 day range.

Ho, ho, ho....get your shovels ready Jan 1-5 young man. (If HM can do it so can I).