96blizz

You just have to know how to play it. I just have fun with them.

You could circle half of these and get accumulating snow here - the indies will be interesting.

I know this. But it was a great opportunity to post that gif.

EPS better for our area. An eternity to go.

Same. Monmouth County. No storm compares. This one seems too fast to match it as well. Boxing Day was 2nd.

“I’m Dreaming of a Wet Christmas...”

Don’t. lol.

With the first system trending closer I think the favored areas see 1-3” or so. The problem seems to be if the Wed/Thurs storm doesn’t deliver up here a White Xmas could be in serious jeopardy!

Exactly. The vort is over the ocean right now! I posted my humorous article about this last winter. May be time to dig it up.

The weenies in the big cities never learn. I see so many “lock it in” comments it’s hilarious. I’m a huge believer in climatology as well - and 2’ of snow in NYC in December with a tucked low is supremely anomalous. sure it can happen and modeling favors it now - but I wouldn’t lock anything in yet.

5 days to go is an eternity for a system like this. GFS at 6z was also NW by a good bit. For our area we just need a couple of things to happen. The High position is off allowing for the primary to drive further North. The system isn’t as wrapped up allowing for a larger moisture field. The Euro at 12z had about .4 LE of snow for Binghamton - 0z had 1” plus and there are DAYS to sort this out Having done this for 30+ years I know well enough to not give up! Are the odds against us now? Sure. But modeled snow is just that... FWIW - I also lived the first 39 years of my life in NJ/PA near 95, so I know heartbreak with storms like this as well as most! EDIT while a terrible model the 6z ICON shows what’s still possible and how it could happen. Run a low inside NJ that’s less consolidated than the Euro and we see many inches of powder. (2nd image)

Close to a crusher for all up here. Long way to go

Bananas graupel shower here. Highlight of the winter.

Winds are damn impressive. Easily feel like we’ve gusted over 50mph.

Already flipped to decent snow here in Skaneateles. Could see a few inches today.

Unless ratios are 30:1 I’m not seeing what NWS is seeing here. I wanna be wrong.

If I didn’t have a family with two young boys I would so be taking the short road trip. One day...

NAM starting this see the LES around here late Friday through Saturday. That’s what NWS Binghamton is keying in on.

Struggling with this map here in Skaneateles. I just don’t see 8”+ happening. Hope I’m wrong!

Yeah. After I left. What a kick in the baguettes. EDIT: I was there for the Boxing Day Blizzard visiting my parents for Christmas (they’re still there) and it was my second favorite storm behind 1996.

Fryer? Man this makes me laugh growing up in Monmouth County NJ! I know I will lose this perspective eventually but I still have it!

This is that critical frame! It’s a race between the cold air and precip. There’s likely gonna be a disappointed back side area!

Storm reminds me of the one in late January. We had a beautiful synoptic snow burst that Saturday afternoon in Skaneateles when the call was all rain. Elevation may throw some surprises out with this one too.

Toss ‘em