Rjay

METAR KISP 291056Z 01024G34KT 1/4SM R06/3500V4500FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01034/1051 SLP031 P0002 T10331044 $

Please use the obs thread for obs.

All it did since 12z is tighten up the gradient

Nice band parked over my area

Haha awesome.

Since I'm out of reactions I'll switch over to gifs

This is the first time I've ever run out of my daily reaction allowance lol. Why the hell is that a thing?

Storm was never off. Too many people don't understand context. I was sounding off about the model runs so far today. I explicitly said I wasn't throwing in the towel and expecting surprises.

Wayy west

It's been a rough day. I'm ok with this logic. But just for today. It actually has a name. It's call the Metsfan.

The gfs was wrong the entire time. The reason the models are shifting east is bc of modeled convection over the Gulf Stream.

It's amazing these convective blobs over the gulf stream are causing such model mayhem. I blame climate change and these ridiculously warm sst.

But I am a bit tilted by the current guidance lol.

I've never thrown in the towel before an event and won't start today.

I do. Whether they be good or bad is tbd.

I'm not writing this off either. I'm just reacting to the model runs today. These weren't just small bumps east.

He loves a good KU

Yes

I was just about to post that lol

HIGHLIGHTS... * WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED 3 FT IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. * IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL HISTORICAL SNOWFALL, STRONG WINDS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. DETAILS... HEAVY SNOWFALL/EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES... MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO CONSENSUS FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD TO IMPACT EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 MB PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK. FOR REFERENCE, A BOMB CYCLONE'S CRITERIA IS A DROP OF 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. AT THIS POINT WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE STORM, WE ARE NOW IN THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL DURING AN EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVENT. WE NOW HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BAND, HOWEVER. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50 UNITS OF OMEGA COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. GIVEN THAT A DOUBLE BARREL LOW COULD DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYE- LIKE FEATURE AT SOME POINT, WHEREVER THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND SETS UP COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR 5 INCHES PER HOUR ESPECIALLY WHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IF A DEFORMATION BAND CAN PERSIST WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20-25 TO 1. THEREFORE, WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE AN AREA OF 24 TO 30 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND COULD SET UP FURTHER WEST, OR THERE MAY BE TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN. EITHER WAY, WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW... WITH 925MB WINDS AT 65-70 KTS OR 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO GEFS AND NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE AND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT MIXING, THERE WILL BE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 50-60 MPH GUSTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED SNOW DRIFTS OF UP TO 4 FT OR HIGHER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RATHER WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI, INCLUDING THE PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE I-95 OR EVEN THE I-495 CORRIDOR ENDS UP WITH A SECONDARY LOCAL SNOWFALL MAXIMA. THE SILVER LINING IS THAT BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH DRY POWDERY FLUFF, THERE IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SNOW LOADING ISSUES EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DUE TO THE COASTAL FRONT. POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS, WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER AND WETTER SNOW AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER SNOW LOADING. WITH 70 MPH WINDS, POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY SNOW OVERSPREADS AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY SURE UNTIL THE MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP AS THE STORM GETS GOING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WE DO THINK THAT PLYMOUTH COUNTY IS STILL GOING TO END UP WITH ONE OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THIS STORM, HOWEVER, THE SLRS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE'S LESS THAN IDEAL COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST OMEGA RESULTING IN RIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS COULD BREAK UP DENDRITES.

Did you read BOX's afd? I'd be losing my mind too.

No idea. Strictly speaking about what I'm seeing on the models.

This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm.