LovintheWhiteFluff

14 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Looks can be deceiving. It’s always best to use microwave when recon isn’t available. I circled where the wind shift is on the most recent pass. Looks NW to me.

 

That's Maria, not Jose. Read my post again.

Jose seems to already be moving east according to the water vapor loop. The 18z GFS didn't have it pushing east until 12hr.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely...

Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z...

Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF....

 

 

Whatever you are using is really slow right now. Tropical Tidbits is up to 276. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017092218&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Before going on to US impact, does this have appeared to be historically destructive storm in PR? Seeing pretty spotty information.

TWC said 4 to 6 months to get electricity up for the entire island which doesn't have power now. Just that alone is destructive to everyday life for millions of people. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point.

meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?

Yes, landfall should be around 12z. 

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Is recon going to get there before landfall?
 

I think they will make it. Based on radar, we're 1.5 hrs from western eyewall crossing over eastern Dominica.

Is recon going to get there before landfall?

Yeah, it's about 485 miles to the Eastern side of Dominica from Curacao. 

GFS has Jose weakening to the point that the ridging can build back up. The Euro has it much stronger and gives Maria an exit lane. 

Just going to have to see what happens to Jose in the next 24 to 48 hours. 

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Obviously, the models will continue to flop around with Jose's future several days out, but tonight's euro is the first model run that shows a scenario in which Maria can still hit the US even if Jose gets blocked and meanders along the US coast.  Jose would have to sit over the cold water and die out.

The closer to the coast track and some sheer weaken Jose a lot more. Seems like the closer Jose can get to the coast, the greater Maria's chance. 

LARGE TORNADO AGAIN ON ABC3340 APPROACHING TUSCALOOSA

http://www.ustream.t.../ABC-33-40-Main

that video is amazing