EasternLI

That really is a pretty good clustering showing up on today's run.

What a sweet looking loop this is. Notice at the end also how the +PNA heights are re-firing as the Aleutian/Dateline low amplifies. No real red flags from the MJO this time IMHO. Let's see if we can put a nice little run together. I think there's plenty of tracking that lies ahead.

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce.

That's getting pretty beefy now on the 12z AI EPS for tomorrow.. Buy or sell?

This run

I've been pretty adamant about the first phase 8 attempt being a fraud regardless of what the RMM charts had shown. Now, given the renewed MJO... Which still looks quite good to me for a real run at phase 8 this time on latest guidance btw... I'm more bullish on this run being more successful, but we'll see of course. Therefore, I believe the gefs is displaying the more plausible route forward. It's also slower with the MJO wave, which I believe would actually be the case. I think some of the RMM charts (EPS) posted lately are rushing it too much. Look towards the beginning of Feb or shortly thereafter for that potential IMO. This would support the idea of an energized Aleutian low/+PNA outcome such as the gefs is displaying. In addition, only one cluster on the extended range 00z EPS run from last night. So that means they're not helpful in showing different options in the extended this run. However, the one cluster that there is, does look to support the same idea also. Moreso than the smoothed out mean would suggest.

Some good points in the CPC MJO update from yesterday. I'll include the bullet points below from the PDF. They seem open to the idea of potential phase 8 sometime week 3. Which will be interesting to see what happens with that. Guidance is still looking good with it btw... These updates always give a good read, not only on the MJO, but also the state of ENSO. On a weekly basis. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf • The year 2025 closed out with a weak and incoherent MJO. However, after a slow start to January the RMM index has recently emerged from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific) • La Nina related ocean/atmosphere anomalies persist, but La Nina is showing signs of weakening with the enhanced trade winds across the equatorial Pacific recently disrupted. • Dynamical models are in good agreement in predicting a continued increase in the RMM index over week-1, then eastward propagation towards the Western Hemisphere by week-3. • Tropical cyclone development is most likely to occur near northern Australia during the next two to three weeks. • Following a well-defined MJO during late November, the time longitude plot indicates other modes of tropical variability, such as a fast moving Kelvin wave, have become more dominant over the past few weeks. However, there are indications in the VP maps that a wave-1 pattern may be reemerging. • Enhanced convection, related to the ongoing La Nina, persists over the Maritime Continent. • Consistent with the ongoing La Nina, enhanced upper-level westerlies persist across the equatorial Pacific. • Anomalous easterlies reemerged over equatorial Africa in late December, and have shifted eastward over the Indian Ocean over the last week or so. • Enhanced trade winds over the equatorial central Pacific, associated with La Nina, were interrupted around the New Year by anomalous westerlies, possibly associated with a Rossby wave, but they have since returned east of the Date Line. • Westerly anomalies have persisted across the Indian Ocean and expanded eastward since late December. • La Nina induced suppressed convection became quite strong near the Date Line during late December and into the beginning of January before weakening and shifting westward. • A plume of enhanced convection extended to the west coast of the United States throughout December. Enhanced convection increased over Hawaii around the New Year and has persisted to near-present. • Negative SST anomalies persist across all NINO regions, with cooler temperatures observed over the eastern Pacific. • The NINO 4 region has warmed notably over the last few months, with anomalies approaching zero. • Warmer waters expanding eastward beyond the Date Line suggests oceanic downwelling Kelvin wave activity. • Following an incoherent MJO from late November into early January, the RMM-based index has begun to increase in amplitude, recently emerging from the unit circle in phase 6 (Western Pacific). • Dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued strengthening of the RMM signal in phase 6 during week-1, then propagation eastward into phase 7 or 8 by week-3. • As seen above, the GEFS has better than usual clustering of members, and very good agreement is also noted in the ECMWF. This ensemble clustering continues in extended-range solutions from the GEFS and ECMWF, increasing forecast confidence. • The GEFS OLR tool depicts a large increase in the strength of the suppressed/enhanced convection dipole over the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific. • Late in the forecast period a slight eastward shift is noted. • The constructed analog tool is faster with the eastward progression of enhanced convection into the Western Hemisphere.

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them.

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it.

12z Euro AI on the more amped train.

MJO is interesting again after being inactive for a while. It's firing off starting in the west pacific and might make another attempt at a phase 8 run. If it lines up with these arrows, you are there. Especially if you can push that suppressed phase fully onto 120E. That did not happen last time. It attenuated and fell short. Therefore I do not believe we ever truly achieved phase 8 the first time. It'll be interesting to see what happens now, with the warm pool leaning slightly east. Thinking maybe we can get a better attempt this time but we'll see.

Now, it does actually appear that the MJO is looking to get active once again. Initiating in the west Pacific as per the possibility mentioned by the CPC. This is a pretty good look at a phase 6 then 7 firing off on the EPS. GEFS doesn't disagree either. We may have another attempt at a phase 8 pass on our hands beyond this. Perhaps a better chance this time with the warm pool a bit further east this time. To me, the key to pulling that off successfully is to see the strong subsidence push fully into 120E. Along with the propagation of convection into the western hemisphere. Which guidance is hinting at may actually happen towards the end of these runs lately. That's promising IMHO. That did not occur last time.

If you want a period to watch for a storm. The Period ~15th is def. worth keeping an eye on... Possibly a big +PNA phase shift, well advertised actually, with potential for some southern energy running out during that time. Could end up as nothing. Anything could. But when I see that kind of framework, I think you watch that every time.

I'm of the opinion that I do not believe we ever really truly achieved phase 8 on that first attempt. The signal was shoved there with a turbocharged (due to the events in the strat) CCKW. However that waned as the strat event ended. Plus the falling AAM at the same time attenuated the signal further. Sort of abandoning it. So we didn't exactly get a classic response. The MJO has been disorganized since then and not really much of a factor. CPC MJO desk has mentioned how it's been inactive as of late as well. As such I'm really not trusting any MJO output at this time until something more coherent shows up on multiple cycles. CCKW's and ERW's are the main event in the tropics for now, and that's giving models fits. CPC does mention that if another MJO were to initiate in January, it would likely begin in the west Pacific due to underlying conditions. So if one were to take shape, that's probably not a bad location as a guess. I just don't have any faith in that forecast as of yet. The warm pool situation is more for Feb. If you can have it bump east enough away from it's climo position that's how you can attain a cold Feb. Which has a fair enough chance of occurring as per posts in the main enso thread. La nina is bad in Feb because the climo position of that feature is ~120E. So convective forcing is concentrated mostly in that spot. So you wind up with the Aleutian ridge/ SE ridge regime that is widely known. If you start to shift it away from that and inch it more and more towards the dateline instead, you start working Pacific ridging into more and more of a favorable location. Instead of the climo la nina location. That's one way to get a cold Feb out of a la nina. Which seems like could be happening with a big WWB in progress out there now and perhaps again later in the month, but will it all be enough. It's already made the move away from 120E since October. It doesn't need to be centered on the dateline, just a little bit more east past 150E could work. It's really not all that far off...