EasternLI

Regardless of what happens with this blocking potential. I think there's a pretty good chance of popping a +PNA after that first week of January. Via Pacific wave break. I can make a longer post about that tomorrow.

Doubt anyone anywhere sees much of any NAO blocking, unless an actual Scandinavian block happens first. The open ridges rolling over won't work for anyone. Including Europe. Models and ensembles still all over the place with that too. And that's something starting towards day 7 at this point. Need it to happen...

Might be doable. Previous runs had that ridge centered more in Iowa. It's already ticked west a little bit. Maybe that continues.

Still trending on the 00z.

Trending towards the powerhouse Scandinavian block scenario in that 8-10 range on the EPS. As a consequence of that, it's also trending towards a powerhouse Greenland block scenario arriving in the longer range 11-15 day clusters.

Damn who screwed up your breakfast order... happy holidays to you too I'll take the under on 50's after Friday. Seeing a lot of lows in the 20's though.

Can we please make this a thing. Thanks.

This run is vastly different from all the previous gefs runs along the eastern seaboard.

Personally, I'm thinking this 8-10 day range here is pretty meaningful. Does Santa deliver a true Scandinavian block or not. Some of these half attempts probably don't work well for us. This is from the 12z eps cluster analysis. 5 of them for this period today. Todays Euro OP says no, and is grouped with cluster 2. Cluster 1 on the eps, populated with a greater number of members says yes. I flipped this for easier viewing of our side of the world. So clusters 1-5 is left to right. Days 8-10 are bottom to top. If we do happen to see an amplified block like the 1st cluster is displaying then you'd probably see a pretty big wave 2 shot that goes up into the strat along with it. If that does not happen, then you won't see that. Probably not a retrograde to a true -NAO block either I would assume. You can see it expressed in the EPS strat mean during this timeframe too. Which is most likely reflecting that potential feature in the members. One way or another, we want to see that block happen. Incidentally, there are factors which support the block to indeed happen based on reasons laid out in this thread already. We wait and see if one does actually materialize but it does appear as a favored outcome in this 12z eps run as well.

Two clusters on eps cluster analysis in the long range last night. -NAO of unknown impact the general idea. There is a road in some analogs where we start January with a -NAO and as we lose that, the PNA goes positive. Could we take that road this year?

I've been optimistic and I remain optimistic for this winter as a whole. Look warmth is by far and away the favorite to win out as we move through future decades. That's reality. We aren't all the way there yet either though. Some still get blown away seeing very impressive warm records when they occur. Which is fine. To me, that's to be expected more and more in the future during warm patterns anyway. Cold is more exciting and tends to bring exciting weather especially in winter. Plus I enjoy rooting for underdogs! Yet at the same time I'm going to be honest. Being disingenuous is stupid and makes no sense to me in any facet of life. This year feels like it's acting quite different than the recent ratters we've had. Sure there's a mild pattern set to visit for a time. That's legit, as discussed. IMO it's probably something like 1 week, maybe 2 tops. And new england might not even see very much of that. But this is starting to look more and more like the old classic Scandinavian Block > -NAO sequencing. Do note there is a mild period included during the beginning of that process.

How have the AI Ens been doing? I haven't been following too closely. Some suggestion on them that the pacific trough would retrograde further out into the GOA. With subsequent increasing heights in the PNA region. If you loop them.

Snow is falling here. We'll see what we end up with.

18z Euro

18Z RRFS