EasternLI

Let's just get the 6z gfs and call it a winter

Yes, let's get these 2 waves together for Valentines day.

OKX AFD: Operational 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to come in a bit farther north with the low track. Ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday, but the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly farther north and a couple of mb stronger than previous run. The GFS ensemble mean is generally the same track as the previous run, but also a couple of mb deeper. The respective AI models are also a bit farther north, now introducing some QPF into the forecast area, whereas previous runs did not. This is likely due to the slightly more amplified northern stream shortwave that allows the surface low off shore to strengthen, bringing in more moisture into the region. Chances for at least some minor accumulations have increased. However, if the operational GFS verifies, we could see high end advisory level snow across NYC, Long Island, and NE NJ. Did not want to jump on board with something as drastic as the GFS just yet, but if the northward trend continues, higher snowfall would be expected. Right now, a 1-2" (closer to 1", though locally higher amounts of 2" or slightly higher are possible) is expected for much of Long Island, with all other areas under an inch.

Definitely had more snow since the ~1" this morning. In fact it's still snowing now lol. No idea on the grand total for this, way too much wind blowing it everywhere. 11F

Currently Snow. Blowing snow. 14F Deep winter vibe in this neck of the woods today.

Cool radar loop. And it has started snowing here again now with this stuff from the east.

Still coming down pretty good in this..

~1" new snow OTG, maybe slightly more. That was a pretty heavy band that swung through here. Hoping the wind takes care of this later so I don't have to lol.

Brutal.

There is a meteorological term for that IMO. Internal variability within a longwave pattern. Stuff like wave spacing, shortwave interactions, etc. There's research out there that describes it in that way. I do believe chaos is even mentioned sometimes lol.

What's the status of the NYC below freezing streak currently? EPS verbatim would have it continue right through next weekend.

It was a possibility back in late December when I was looking at it more. TBH I haven't really checked on that since I mentioned it. Got sidetracked following the snow threats lol. There was a bunch of warm water (30C+) collecting east of 150E. It looks like most of that was downwelled to the subsurface instead. I think Ray has a great handle on this season and has done a tremendous job with his efforts this year. He's really nailed quite a lot of aspects about this season. I think we did see a very clean phase 8 pass recently. But it was also quite short lived like was mentioned. However we couldn't even get that to happen in recent years. So perhaps we're turning a corner, slowly.

Always is. I hate how uncertainty always needs to be mentioned tbh. That should be a baseline given to anyone and everyone following weather. There are never certainties. As much as we would like there to be. There are only probabilities. What makes this one more interesting than usual is the -AO already in place prior to it happening this time. That leaves the door open for it to quickly couple and eliminate the typical lag time. I'm getting pretty confident the split is going to happen. Ensembles are getting increasingly on board. Plus we've already had the precursor pattern for it. Not to mention that the timing shown on guidance is in line with when you would expect to see one after the precursor pattern happens.