Bevo

OMG all this "weekend rain" can eat a d**k.

I realize that a lot of you have been without...but upstate SC does not need more rain right now.

That December drought monitor graphic is sus as hell by the way.

16 hours ago, CentralNC said:

Just remember in this chaotic flow, don't trust any model outside of 7 days.  Heck maybe even 5 days.

5 days is still too long.

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty strong indications that the gears will start to turn on the pattern change in about 10 days. The cold air would begin to move across the CONUS  around christmas and settle over the East Coast by the first week in January 

It's like watching old TV shows in syndication.

11 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower.

Hell, I did that in January.

If we're being honest, we knew back in December that this wasn't going to be a good winter for the SE.

PAC = hamster on cocaine = poorly performing winter.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 But just 2-3 days later, look out for potential CAD cold! All ensembles have a nice sized Canadian high coming down into the N Plains on 2/24-5 and then the chance for it to wedge down to the SE just afterward. Bathing suits followed closely behind by heavy coats?

The only CAD relevant now is Cadbury.

Weirdest El Nino-ish La Nina I can remember being in this year.

What's it called when you get the rain of a Nino but the warmth of a Nina?

On 1/7/2023 at 8:54 PM, Coach McGuirk said:

Maybe we'll have better luck in late January/February.  The Pac Jet can't maintain this dominance all winter long, especially in a non el-nino winter.

Why not? It has definite historical precedence to do so. Again, we've seen this movie a hundred times.

10 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Heck with that.  Either white snow or green fairways.  No in between on Christmas or the weather was just wasted.  You cant even have a good bonfire when it is 20° outside.

If these trends keep up we might as well break out the vodka for Christmas.  

100% this...

Break out the Stolichnaya!

Снег и водка – это был бы поистине полноценный праздник!

12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’ve missed you  

Fingers crossed for a season interesting enough for salty discussions 

In all honesty, we've seen this movie too many times. The Pacific is going to likely wreck shop indefinitely. I don't see this winter as having great potential. A PAC behaving like a hyperactive hamster on a wheel has proven this time and again.

Hope I'm wrong.

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Brutal summer for us as a whole. Going to remember this one. Lack of interesting tropical weather has made it all the worse.

Exactly why I won't remember it.

11 hours ago, eyewall said:

Some shots of mine from today chasing supercells in the NC Coastal Plain:

Was this a still photo taken from a video? That's the only way I've ever been able to get the cloud to ground shots.

35 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

and it's been that way for the entire 58 years of my life as well as, as long as records have been kept. 

The effort this SE board puts into making winter something that it just isn't - and has never been - is amazing. And it happens every single year.

Slight ice glaze here but very manageable. 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Another winter here with snow totals below 6 inches. 

Do you also think your yearly snowfall total is 6"?

12 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Remember when it was supposed to be 65 and Sunny today and I was supposed to be grilling and Slamming Old Tuffy’s on my forehead? Yea it’s 38 and pouring rain …. Carolina Wedge in full effect 

But muh warm long range tho....

1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, not trusting a random person on the internet over experts is why people keep getting into crappy situations. Got ya.

I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective.

There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you.

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I guess the GFS isn't the King after all.... the Euro has been showing a suppressed look the whole time....

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO definitely winning the battle on this storm. Hasn’t really budged. GFS has thrown about every possible solution out there

It may very well end up that way, but nothing has happened yet.

Did you know that Cincinnati won the Super Bowl in two weeks? 

On 1/29/2022 at 10:56 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

Just want to point out that the bolded text is literally how humanity keeps finding itself in terrible situations 

20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

And just like this time, as it gets closer, it probably won't be as warm as modeled. 

I've been seeing/hearing "warm long term" since December. Yet here I am freezing my bollocks off. 

26 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Just look at the totals for the February 16, 2013 event for a high-end realistic expectation.  thermal profiles were similar for that event too.  If you get convective/possible thundersnow... the surface will be sub-32 within a minute or two.  If you only get 5/100th of liquid from a fringe band... sure, probably not adding up. But if you get 1/2 inch of liquid in an hour or two right under a heavy band... it'll pile up fast.

I literally posted a video of that day (February 16, 2013) in the Sanitorium thread, and what happens if you're under a meso band. Went from 43 degrees to 31 in a matter of minutes with heavy snow. It was textbook.

23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I love how a couple of posters never post but just follow me around giving me the weenie reaction. 

You've got your own paparazzi 

@olafminesaw Speaking of Feb 2013...

The discussion of a meso low in the storm thread brings to mind something I love to look back on occasionally.

Back in February 2013, Widremann perfectly called a meso for my location. What started with thunder and 43 degrees escalated quickly. Someone could get a nice surprise this weekend if they're under a meso band.

2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up.  you'll get people excited only to be disappointed.  Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map.

First time?

This is an MA/NE storm.