Bevo

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I agree to some extent, your assessment assumes the other team cannot field a defense thar can keep the other team out of the end zone. All they needed was one stop and they couldn’t get it. It’s a 2 sided game not just offense. I like the revised format where a FG doesn’t win it like it used to on your first possession (start with good field position drive 15 yards kick a 50 yarder) but, last night is a perfect example, if your defense cannot keep the other team out of the end zone when they absolutely need it, that team does not deserve to win

Had the Bills won that toss, the shoe is on the other foot. Too much of an advantage rests on a flip.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

It's the playoffs. Why not just put 15 more minutes on the clock, whoever is ahead at the end wins, 15 more if tied? It's not that hard. 

That would be better than the current format.

The OT format for the NFL is long past the need for revising.

Too huge of an advantage for the coin toss winner. Chiefs/Bills was literally determined by a coin toss.

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Quantum Super Computing

Quantum Super Computing in Weenie Hut, Jr. labs.

1 hour ago, burgertime said:

March 2009 comes to mind for me. ULL was all over the place and then at the last second folks along I-85 cashed in. 

Big time. Even heard thunder that night. That was the first time our sons experienced snow as we had just moved to Lyman from Charleston.

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If you would bother to learn anything you'd know the models are a guide not a map. For 10 years of being on the board you should be able to look at the models, remember how storms have played out in the past and then decide for yourself what is likely to happen. Not live and die by each model run FFS. 

Just explain it like it's the Pirate Code. It's really more guidelines rather than rules.

24 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Nah…. Maybe 1/4” - 1/3” but Models always over do ice 

This might be a rare case in which the emphatic statement is probably true.

I think most people on this board would agree - ice progs just don't usually pan out in reality. That should be good news.

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What is up with all the va folks here? I can kinda understand those near the border, but this is the south not the MA 

They're trying to escape

47 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate).  It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..

I wasn't watching when this was posted on air, but surely it was meant to demonstrate the difficulty in forecasting due to such model disagreement, no?

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Just a “slight” difference between the Euro and GFS: 

Boy if there was ever a time the Euro homers need it to be right…

Lyman ended with 7" (sleet in between).

This was the longest duration of falling frozen precip I can remember.

Performed really well imby.

I'm really rooting for you CNC and ENC folk.  Izzy was a major hit here, so I'm all good and would be juiced to see this be an eastern Carolinas thing. 

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I've missed your sassyness sir  

Haha I've grown to old to not tell the truth.

Never was one for bollocks and nonsense 

28 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Can you smell the ice yet? 

I certainly smell a lot of salt 

OMG there are no words to describe how effing terrible the 18Z runs are for this high strung sub forum 

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off.

Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick?

To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. 

It’s likely because a significant part of the posting population is not in the 5-6” snow/sleet zone (CNC/ENC) and will probably just have some zr if not plain cold rain and just can’t even anymore. I get it. 

21 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Wow!  Def a western Carolina's / N GA storm!  Where are all these posters???

Over in the corner hiding from all the CNC and ENC posters.

In reality though, that is definitely overdone on the snow end. 

20 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

the middle of the "M" would be nice. The bottom of the "M" would be awesome!

Yeah - there's just no denying that WAA, especially as we get closer. Lyman is tucked strangely between the lee and where the snow line typically transitions. I'll still get the ice but for some reason just not quite as much as my surrounding areas. 

We're talking 1 mile of separation between mostly snow and mostly ice in most cases.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO

 

 

 

The light, lavender-ish band on that map (3"-6" Snow/Sleet) could stand to come south to where it would meet the top of the "M" in my opinion, but other than that it looks pretty damn solid.

I always have to remember that most of this board doesn't live in the Frozone like me.  Lyman is in the Narnia of SE winterland (NW SC). We tend to benefit more than a lot of people with these storms. This helps me understand the overwhelming number of frustrated posts for literally every winter storm thread. I get it - it makes sense.  

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam

That group also meets weekly at the community center if you know what I mean

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I feel like the amount I have invested in this storm is not commensurate with what I will receive in return. 

Meh - that's status quo for most of us. We track. We watch. Then we question why we were ever interested in such a hobby. Repeat.

It's rare to have an event that is actually worthy of such a time suck.

Yet we always come back.

Holy s*** the afternoon/evenings on this forum never let you down lol

Hyperbole and the 18Z - what a pair of great forecasting tools, eh?

12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This will not age well.  Are they using models from 2 days ago or what??

There's no way they're accounting for sleet/ZR, right?

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Haha, yeah, it's drunk. There's a reason it's called happy hour, and as per usual the 18z NAM is the main offender

I don't understand why humanity as a whole doesn't just skip the 18Z run of anything - the NAM especially. It's called the Never Again, Man, because I swore I would never let it "pole" me again after so many burns.

1 minute ago, Wow said:

https://i.imgur.com/OUUuzor.png