skierinvermont
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Everything posted by skierinvermont
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I don't think so.. the heights are higher over NE at hr 18 The 537mb contour is through the Berkshires instead of Springfield
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I think it's the kicker coming down out of Canada behind it at hr 30-36 .. everything in Canada is sped up and starts pressing down again sooner
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Euro digs the trough a bit more at 6hrs PV pulling out more
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We see it in Springfield MA as well on more due east winds too I think. That's a combo of the terrain and coastal convergence
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That makes perfect sense. I think I knew that in the back of my mind bit didn't put it all together. You see it all the time. Yes those onshore winds would slow down and pile up in Eastern MA causing convergence and rising air.
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23" is less than 24" and is common in the rest of sne. I only measured 19" in that storm. 100 years of bad banding isn't bad luck it's downsloping combined with being too far se for most storms.
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the sinking air from the ORH hills and NE CT is the opposite of what you need for precip which requires rising motion and condensation I think just being farther west in an area that is favored by storm track is key for Fairfield and New Haven counties. Might make up for the downsoping. But Lyme CT may not have ever seen a 24"+ snowstorm in 100 years, while they seem to occur regurarly in coastal Fairlfiend and NHV counties.
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Yeah I saw the Jan 15 at Groton. It's patchy though. I'm pretty confident my parents have never had 2'+ in the last 25 years. And I don't think they would have in 96 or 78 either. So possibly never? Maybe in 78.. I couldn't find a detaled map for that one but I thought the bigger totals were east
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I believe I measured 19" in that one, NWS map shows 10-20" for SE CT no 20"+ spots, although I don't doubt they occurred. Moosup is way different
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yes I think the downloping is worse from Westport/Newport over to the CT river. Only 12-18 for SE CT in '05
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Growing up in SE CT where my parents still are, I'm fairly sure then have never seen 2'+ in 25 years.. I'm pretty sure that whole area from SE CT to couth coast MA is 0-2 times in 100+ years. Primary option is '78 or '96, but some areas missed out. All south coast 1969.
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south shore is the coastline south of Boston right? Yeah I meant south coast. Yeah looking at records from SE CT to the south coast it's like most places either never saw 2'+ or saw it once or twice in '96 and/or '78
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Sure but you have to consider the downsloping and climo.. all the models show a gap in the snow there. SE CT, S RI and south shore of MA have basically never seen 24"+, maybe once, and 18"+ is extremely rare. And yet almost all the maps have these areas in either 18"+ or 24"+
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BOS went from 0.3" to 1.6" of QPF from 00z to 18z
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Trough is 50+ miles SW at 21 hours
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It's odd, none of the forecast maps I've seen show the snow hole in SE CT and SW RI that almost all the computer runs show. With N winds downsloping and climo it seems likely
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The GFS initialized the PV and heights over Canada a smidge farther NE. I mean I'd give 70% chance the GFS ticks west before even seeing that
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It should be noted that Providence has only one recorded storm over 24".. '78 and the areas farther south likely have had none
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by 30hr you can see some slight extra digging on the backside of the trough, but the extra confluence looks to dominate
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it's a terrible model. this is just entertainment. was hoping for a sub 960mb BM stall
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yep not looking good, maybe the trough can somehow slow down but doubtful. I don't know why they don't either improve the initialization of the NAM or toss it
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I mean what is the point of a model that has such massive 500mb shifts in its initialization from run to run but the trough does look more amped
