Jns2183

Each of these surface maps has a 24 hour time period. I think people forget that as the storm was crossing into Georgia it had a pressure of 972 down from a 1000 by Brownsville and ended up 960. If you took a section of the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida panhandle and looked at the greatest 12 hour pressure falls over the last 100 years I believe I saw a graphic that in the top 10 were a bunch of strong hurricanes and the 93 storm .

Thunder snow in Mississippi .

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He hasn’t been 1/10 excited for every other storm this winter .

That’s quite a disunity with warnings being posted. But in there defense going from c-2” to 4”-6” is a lot easier than going from even 4”-6” to 2”-4”. Human psychology is fickle, no need to make job harder. .

I’d trade my snow just to see canderson jackpot with 6” .

In my youth I was stupid enough to be out in Isabel. Nothing like seeing multiple trees go down within a couple minutes and have the realization that I’m multiple miles from home. .

I forgot about the front so when my dog barked in my face at 4am I choose just to take him for a walk. I knew I was screwed when it sounded like jet engines at the tops of trees. I did the whole walk in the middle of the road with large branches falling on sidewalks. It was definitely a walk I’ll remember. When the wind mixed down I had to lean into it to not be pushed over. Walk to remember .

I posted the GFS QPF map hoping people would remember 5 days ago when I believe the GFS showed 30”+ of snow for the LSV. It’s apparent in this type of environment that outside of a few days those forecasts are trash and one has to actually do some meteorology to figure things out. I’d love someone to do a detail post on teleconnections for days 8-16 and take a risk. At worst the forecast will be no worse than the models and more likely those in here will learn some useful things. .

If that QPF map comes to be valid I’m sure we will see half of April be nothing but -6 temp departures and 6” of snow .

GFS 384hr QPF .

That would also give Boston another 42” of snow to add to there 37” January. That 79” would be too 10 all time with March to go. They only had 0.4” in November and December. Also it would add 23” to there snowpack as a positive change from today. Nothing like having a 36”+ snowpack in the middle of February. Although unless March and April blowup they aren’t touching there 108.9” record .

Can you provide a link to that? .

I believe the 1990s were a decade where this was semi common .

The 12Z GFS has the LSV as the epicenter of a dessert surrounded by lush snow beds. Here are the hr 240/384 QPF/Snow maps

You should pull up the map from the 1/6/16 thread and do a post showing the progression of CTP snowfall forecast maps from 3 days out till the middle of the storm. First time I ever saw a 36”+ area. I think that was when they first started using maps that had forecast, low end, high end. I remember that a day or so before their high end map showed only 24” I believe.

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Anyone with more information regarding wind. Euro is throwing out guest to near 60mph for Harrisburg. If mixing is going to dislodge this cold then it’s going to bring the wind with it mixing it down. I don’t think you can have one without the other here.

With a forcast high of 60 let’s reflect upon the fact of how much more fun cold air damming will make our lives the next few months. .

Truthfully I thought that was an extremely detailed winter forecast. When you have average snowfall as low as we do and the fact that one major storm can account for 80%+ of snowfall and the fact of how hard it is to predict those storms even 72hours out let alone months I have considerably more respect for forecast as detailed as this. With the high variability in accumulations we have between storms and between +\- 25 miles of any location maybe the best way to judge forecast would be if they issued #of storms between an accumulation range (I.e 1-3,3-6,6-9,9-12,12-15,15-18) and there confidence percentage so that by taking the median multiplied by number by % percentage confidence they come up with snowfall. .

What’s up with the heavy drizzle all night .

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2021/09/winters-early-arrival-expected-in-pa.html .