TJay

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120100Z - 120600Z

SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE

EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES

LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.

THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE

OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN

EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE

Thanks for posting, here is the map for it.

Started snowing here

I hven't had a lot of time to keep up with the storm today but I heard Craig Allen on CBS AM on the drive home voicing some concern about the storm not bombing out in time for the area.

This is from yesterdays ALB AFD

...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL

GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM

UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE

FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS

OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE

BEEN TOO POETIC...

Love this latest AFD from Albany.

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

Whoever writes the AFD's there sure is a character. They did the same thing yesterday

THE CHAIN REACTION AND EXPLOSIVE

DEVELOPMENT WILL CREATE SNOW MUSHROOM CLOUDS AND STELLAR DENDRITIC

SNOW CLUSTER FALLOUT. WELL...THAT MIGHT BE OVERSTATED A LITTLE

BIT.

ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY

WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

My Call for the HV and WNE

I assume the 14-18 range extends down to Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester, Rockland and Orange?

Andy;s map in his storm thread.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7912-jan-11th-12th-snow-threat-is-real/page__view__findpost__p__264922

Upton latest

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

119 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE

CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE LOW

DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH

PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --SHORTWAVE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ROTATES ACROSS NEW

ENGLAND TODAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW..BUT

PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ENSURE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PLENTY OF MIXING UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR

GUSTY WINDS. WINDS FINALLY ABATE LATE IN THE DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO

YESTERDAY...HOWEVER MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...TEMPS

AROUND FREEZING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THIS

RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE

UPPER MID WEST AND MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS

SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON

OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH

EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH

GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL. NAM IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH REGARD TO

TRACK. NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE

EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM OFF

THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING

TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

NAM IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS

THE WESTERN TRACK. AGAIN...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAN

TOWARD CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

BY DOING THAT...LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS

THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN WESTERN TRACK OF THE NAM PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS

MOST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS

STRONGER WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MIXTURE

ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS WOULD OCCUR IN A NAM SOLUTION WITH A SHARP

GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE WEST

ACROSS CENTRAL LI.

DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND FRONTOGENESIS/CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE STORM...BANDING AND HEAVIER PRECIP A

GOOD BET. ASSUMING A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...EXPECT THE

HIGHEST QPF TOTAL FROM NYC EAST. IF NAM IS CORRECT...A SHIFT IN

THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE WEST WOULD BE

WARRANTED...PLACING BULLSEYE FROM AROUND NYC NORTH AND WEST.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BEGINNING TUESDAY

EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED

FAST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE

ACCUMULATING SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. LI AND SRN CT

WOULD HOLD ON TO THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL BUT NOT GET TOO

DETAILED WITH REGARD TO TIMING YET AS UPPER TROUGH STILL TRIGGERS

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...THUS HAMPERING ANY CLEANUP EFFORTS.

LOOKING FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES GENERALLY. OF COURSE HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BANDS WHICH IS TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS FAR

OUT. AMOUNTS COULD BE TEMPERED IF A MIX OCCURS OVER EASTERN LONG

ISLAND.

TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

Thanks for the euro qpf Radders

GFS is wide right with about .50 for the area.

0Z NAM Even cut in half it still a great storm but it will not play out as modeled ATM but nice trends none the less

KSWF

KPOU

SREF came in NW, 0ZNAM continues, keeps the low close to the coast and bombs out JIT to slam the HV on a dream run.

Albany

THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST

SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN

ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS

SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE

COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND

POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT

JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO

EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL

GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM

UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE

FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS

OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE

BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM

WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM

ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE.

WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE

CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES

LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND

ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C

TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE

ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS

TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+

PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT

WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST

HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST

IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW

ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD

COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS

IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON

VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK

VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN

CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS

THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING

OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF

THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON

VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED.

I think that many if us are still a bit gun shy from last year bit we're starting to get over that as we get in on these storms, ha!

I agree with Tjay, yesterdays snowfall is beautiful, sparkling diamonds, simply wonderful. I'd take 3-4 storms like that one again over a couple of weeks than one big dog anytime.

We spend so much time tracking these storms and dealing their effects that the beauty of them gets lost. Our snow season started about a month late but mother nature seems intent on catching up now.

That fresh powder helped me get down to 4 for a low this morning.

Nice. I got down to 11F.

4.8" final here.. Lgt Snow stuck around for a better part of the day.

I picked up another .5 with the light stuff this evening.

I was just out with my dogs. The beauty of this snowfall is sublime. Pine tree branches perfectly touched with snow, the fallen powder on the branches and the ground catches the light and a million flawless diamonds sparkle on the landscape. Perfection.

My daughter said we got 7 but I am going to recheck that when I get home

lol Its 4.2. I gota teach the kid

Still some Lgt Snow..

4" so far..

My daughter said we got 7 but I am going to recheck that when I get home

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1046 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / FAR SWRN MA / CT

/ LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 071646Z - 072045Z

SWATH OF PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OVER NJ AND NYC METRO

LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE IN A

NARROW/INTENSIFYING BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH

PER HOUR AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY VICINITY AND

MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF CT BY EARLY EVENING.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING NW-SE

FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO NRN NJ. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM NJ

TO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY WHILE A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED

ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NWWD FROM 150

MI S BID TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG LOOP OF WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY AT 1630Z SHOWS A PV ANOMALY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD FROM

NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TOWARDS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS EMBEDDED

WITHIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PROVIDED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF

A 150 KT SPEED MAX OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS. AS THIS

OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL

FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED LOW LEVEL THETA-E

PLUME--THEREBY ALLOWING A GREATER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE.

ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD LEND SUPPORT IN

THE EVENTUAL NARROWING/INTENSIFICATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTION.

SUITE OF LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS REINFORCES THE IDEA OF A

BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME AND MOVING W TO E

ACROSS MUCH OF CT THROUGH 00Z. THIS BAND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A

QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HR FOR A FEW

HOURS. FARTHER S OVER LONG ISLAND...ALTHOUGH TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO

THE MID-UPPER 30S IN PLACES...COLD PROFILE ALOFT WILL PROBABLY

SUPPORT PRIMARILY WET SNOW /PERHAPS BRIEF INTERMITTENT LIGHT

RAIN/...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES.

..SMITH.. 01/07/2011

Rt 17 east Goshen to western Monroe snow covered max speed 45. Westbound clear East bound Monroe to Thurway clear 65 mph.

Thurway south from Rt 17 perfect not a snowflake on the road in Orange 65mph. As soon I hit Rockland snowcovered with center lane the only one passable in most areas 30MPH. State roads in Rockland unplowed/unsalted.

Less qpf on the 0z NAM, extract for KSWF says .37

Hey fellas- I remember some of you from the Eastern board. Found my way over here recently. Glad to see the Hudson Valley is in the house.

Hey Pit, glad you found your way here

I have to go into the city on average a couple days a month. If I am really busy I will take a motel such as in Ardsley or like Bellerose, Queens and do a two day stint. I need to get documents for my research business at the courts etc. down there and some can only be obtained terrestrially. Also I occasionally have to testify in Surrogate's Court in one of the boroughs.

I can't imagine how anyone could deal with that traffic and pace of life as a regular commuter. I am adept at it .....know the city very well all over, but a couple days is all I could take. LOL

I can't tell you how happy I am when I leave it in the rear view mirror and keep driving further and further north.

I left Staten Island and Manhattan work years ago, I don't know hw I did it so long