DFWWeather

Well it finally looks like we are going to get some colder weather for a change this coming weekend. Lows look good upper 30/near 40 for DFW Airport by Sunday morning. It'll make for quite the change. Also, looks like the rest of the month may see more cold shot potential.

DFW Airport sets another unprecedented record today. It still has not fallen below 50°F officially. Last year set the latest record of doing so on November 8, 2015. Unless we can manage to do so in the next couple of days (and it might be close), this is really going to be some record of being the latest ever to fall below 50°F. On top of which, when is it going to get colder? I thought for sure the drop of the SOI at the end of October would have forced the pattern change. GFS is on board for later next week for a real cold front, but the ECMWF has been waffling back and forth with the latest runs deflecting all the cold air to the east. My hopes for any winter a really going down with each passing day.

1963-64 was terrific winter but is different to me than currently. After all, that warm October of 63 did at least see us drop below 50°F during the month. However, I think for a near term analog for DFW based on what is happening 1950-51 doesn't look too bad. The 1950-51 was slightly below normal overall but a very up and down winter with major arctic blasts in December, January, and February with snow and ice to boot. I have seen a lot of talk about 1983-84 and 1984-85 winters being weighted twice as analogs for this winter, but I just think both of those are extremes for us and not good analogs. Besides aren't the SST from those years quite different than now? I mean the AMO was in the negative phase, as was 1963-64.

This is true that warm October's correlate to warm winters at DFW. However, there is an exception and that is 1947-48. That October was also on the warm side but that winter was very cold (see below). However, I'm starting to worry as well that this will be another blow torch winter. Especially with the Arctic as warm as it has been. If the signals come together for cold to be delivered, but there really isn't much cold to deliver, then it can be all that cold right? So far we have not fallen, officially at DFW Airport, below 50°F (although I know Arlington and Fort Worth both have). There have only been 4 years where this hasn't happened in October, 1947, 1950, 2004, 2015. 2016 will likely join the ranks as year number five. All of those were warm winters except for 1947-48 (very cold against averages), 1950-51 (slightly cold against averages, although lowest temp was 6°F that winter). Winter 1947-48 overall was -5.1 below normal December was -4.4 below normal with the coldest temp of 27°F. January was -7.5 below normal with 3 distinct snow/ice events with a prolonged Arctic outbreak. The first snow event was on 1/19/48 with 2.0 inches of snow in a WAA pattern form Artic outbreak which began on 1/17/48 with coldest temp of 16°F. The big Arctic outbreak began on 1/24/48 and lasted through 1/30/48 with 6 consecutive days of subfreezing temps. Two snow events culminated in a total of 6.2 inches of snow/ice with lowest temp of 11°F during period and for the month. February was -3.6 below normal with two major ice storms. One on 2/8/48 0.4 ice followed by low of 19°F. The second over two days 2/12 - 2/13 resulting in 0.5 ice followed by low of 21°F. This look to be more of WAA ice storm. Coldest temp of the month was 19°F. Winter 1950-51 was -0.3 below normal for winter... It did have a major Arctic outbreak the end of January into early February 1951 that left 5 days consecutive of subfreezing temps. The lowest temp was 6°F and 8°F on two separate days. There was snow and ice up to 2 inches during this outbreak. Another snow storm of 3.0 inches occurred on 2/14/51 with lowest temp of 21°F.

Today's latest ECMWF has H85 temps down to 9.5°C after strong cold front early next week for DFW Airport. That would certainly mean the colder spots outside the Metroplex could dip below 50°F. Not that unusual to fall into the 50s at DFW in September, but pretty rare to see temperatures in the 40s. The record low for the month is 40°F at DFW Airport. I say bring on Fall!

Latest ECMWF weeklies also have first significant frontal passage of the season shortly before or around Labor Day (which I call significant anyhow). Confidence is growing that we shouldn't see anymore 100s. We have another front progged for this weekend, and possibly a 3rd later next week. Highly unusual late August pattern. I like the idea of cooling across the Rockies and Plains to start Fall which may persist into winter. East coast might have a slower start to fall this year. Interesting, I went over the preliminary analog years that Pastelok posted on Accuweather and what the outcomes were for DFW winter. His analog years are as follows and if it was a cold/neutral/warm winter for DFW: 1958-60 - Cold 1959-60 - Cold 1960-61 - Cold 1974-75 - Neutral 1981-82 - Cold 1983-84 - Cold 1984-85 - Cold 1985-86 - Neutral (though December was cold) 1995-96 - Neutral (through end of January into early February was quite cold with major snow/ice event) 1996-97 - Neutral 2005-06 - Warm (quite warm actually) 2013-14 - Cold 2015-16 - Warm (Not sure why this was included, but I would throw it out as I don't expect anything like last year as SST are already looking quite different.) If you throw out the 2015-16 winter, you get a cold looking winter for the mid-section of the nation, even colder if you toss 2005-06. I believe Joe Bastardi's preliminary winter ideas are similar with the middle of the country neutral (could go either way) and warmer along both coasts, but I'm not sure what his analog package looks like. This might be a cold central US winter? Thoughts...

I saw where Paul Pastelok at Accuweather posted some preliminary winter ideas the other day. In his analog package he had 1983-84 and 1984-85 (which he weighted twice) along with some other years...though I can't remember them all. I think 1987-88 was in there and 1995-96. The 1983-84 and 1984-85 winters were cold winters for DFW. 1983-84 has the coldest December ever for us. 1987-88 was more an average winter...with one big ice storm in January similar to the one a couple winters ago with the 'cobblestone' ice. Seems like some of our worst ice storms occur during La Niña winters. 1995-96 was the last time DFW dipped to the single digits in modern times (February 1996). We are way, way overdue for that!

The ECMWF has really outpeformed the GFS in terms of our temps this summer. The GFS has really been way too hot. Given the amount of rain and exceptional July greenery this year, I would really like H85 temps to warm another 10 degrees for triple digit heat here. Looking at today's 0z ECMWF, I see no 100 degree days at DFW Airport over the next 7 to 10 days. If we are transitioning to a La Niña from El Niño (still questionable) then 100 degree days are usually few here and usually later in the season. The NWS really blew out of proportion the heat over the 4th of July holiday and the couple of days afterward. We barely hit heat advisory criteria at DFW Airport the last couple of days of that week long heat advisory. So far, this year's heat has been very typical of summer weather in Texas and nothing out of the ordinary.

Looking at forecasts this morning, forecasters are really way overdoing the heat and not taking into account the rainfall. So many forecasts are even forecasting hotter temps than what the models are generating (which those usually don't take evapotranspiration effects into account). I don't see any triple digit readings at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. For one, the ridge really isn't all that strong, the winds are staying up keeping the boundary layer well mixed, and the record rainfall we have received are all working against triple digit heat. Everything is still quite green here due to the above average precipitation. Highs will continue to stay between 95 and 98 degrees. Yesterday's high was only 93°F and the low this morning 75°F well below what used to be the threshold of 78°F to maintain a Heat Advisory, plus heat index values stayed below 105°F yesterday. Coupled with the 71°F reading the prior morning, we are getting enough relief at night from the heat to forego any Heat Advisory. It could be so much hotter this time of year, and I really fell the heat is being blown way out of proportion.

The rain has also kept things quite a bit cooler than forecasted. This morning's low was 71°F and afternoon highs are struggling to reach the 90s as of this writing and will more than likely be well below forecasted values. Heat index values both yesterday and today have been below 105°F. Seems a little ridiculous that the NWS is keeping the Heat Advisory going as we are not meeting criteria by a wide margin. Even if we briefly meet it tomorrow, it won't be for two consecutive days. The Heat Advisory should be cancelled. Given recent rainfall and ridge not building in strong this week triple digit temps seem unlikely at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days.