DFWWeather

It wasn't disappointing for the 26th. Has major winter storm then. It does however continue the trend of being colder with this outbreak for DFW for Sunday through Tuesday. From what I can gather from the NAM, just barely coming into range, it also appears colder at the surface and at H85. I'm going with a low of 18°F for Monday morning at DFW Airport and maybe not getting out of the 20s all day on Sunday. It is even conceivable that we will struggle to get above freezing, if at all, on Monday as well. Those hoping for snow with this blast, I'm afraid are out of luck. Best we can do is some freezing drizzle possibly or light flurries, but the surface is looking drier and the moisture to scour out quicker before subfreezing temperatures set in. Not real excited yet regarding storm system FWD is looking at for next week, where they mention possible wintry precip. Time will tell!

In the 80s when these massive Arctic fronts came barreling through, I've seen the temperature drop 40+ degrees in 1 hour at DFW before. In Amarillo, when the December 1989 front came through the temperatures dropped 50+ degrees in less the 20 minutes causing light to bend. There were tons of reports people seeing mirages of cows in the sky because the light was bending. Texas extreme temps swings not uncommon!

Just gonna post this exact same thing. It also keeps us in the 20s all day Monday as well looks like after a low of 17°F Monday morning. I'm afraid the wintry precipitation with this front doesn't look all that exciting. Can't rule out flurries or freezing drizzle yet, but nothing significant. This definitely looks colder than last week and the coldest since January 2015 on lows, probably longer on highs.

The models this morning are not our friend. The Arctic front this week will ooze south against the means, but the core of the cold looks to go north and east of Texas. Basically, here it is just a regular cold front. The Arctic front by the 18th looks a little more promising, but all the operational models have backed off on the amount of cold air. The GFS noses the Arctic air to about Lubbock and then retreats it back north. When has that ever happened? Only the CMC 500mb mean looks to support cold air into Texas, the GFS and ECMWF are building the southeast ridge really strong keeping trough in the west. I mean huh? Looking beyond the 18th, the ECMWF on both the operational and EPS has no more Arctic air at all through the end of the month. Must be a product of the EPO and NAO forecast to trend positive. WPO is looking to stay neutral to negative. What a complete mess!

12z Model suite have 500mb pattern not conducive for Texas penetration of Arctic air next week. All three, CMC, GFS, and ECMWF show stronger ridging and push the coldest air across the Great Lakes out into Atlantic. I have only looked at 12z GFS operational and it follows with eastern push of cold air.

A full continental trough next week with air -30°C + sinking south, probably originating in Siberia. 1983, 1989 anybody? Though I must admit none of the operational models really bring it deep into Texas, at least not yet. 500mb ensemble means of the CMC, GFS, ECMWF look wicked though!

Looks like the KDFW AFD from NWS this afternoon is still biting hard on the cold air with and even suggesting the possibility that DFW will fall below 20°F Friday morning. This has been more along my lines of thinking from the get go with this air mass. However, with the ECMWF coming in so much warmer today, not sure that can happen. Even if it does fall to at least 21°F or colder, it will be the coldest morning at DFW Airport since January 8, 2015. We actually reached 22°F in March 2015. Regardless, as long as we dip below 27°F, which I'm reasonably confident we should, it will be colder than all of last winter. Thursday should do the trick as well which keeps us below 40°F during the day, which we never did last winter.

The 0z GFS today had a very nice shot of Arctic air in the extended, however all runs after nothing. Operational ECMWF looks warmer across the board today...both runs. 12z ECMWF has a some Arctic air trying to nose down at 240h, but its H5 pattern won't allow it to get here.

Yeah, they are, but the ECMWF has really backed off on the cold air today. Thinking maybe lows 23°F-25°F look more reasonable based on that, maybe even warmer. NAM is just coming into the picture. Basically what the GFS has been saying all along.

The 12z GFS vs 0z ECMWF are very different on next week. GFS is warmer than ECMWF and has been the whole time. Shouldn't this be the other way around? GFS has a more NW SE trajectory sending the coldest air off to our north and east giving just kinda a glancing blow.

This Arctic front looks as though it will penetrate all the way to Central America!

WOW! Today's 0z ECMWF has H85 temps down to a whopping -14.5°C at DFW after Arctic front next week. Last time we saw H85 temps anywhere near this cold was during the intense Arctic air outbreak the week of the Super Bowl in February 2011. The NWS this morning said they undercut the coldest guidance on Thursday's temps with a low of 28°F and high of 44°F. They must have not looked at the ECMWF. This kind of cold would produce nearly the coldest temps at DFW in nearly 20 years comparable to 2011 but more like February 1996, but colder. Outlying areas would see lows in the single digits with the Airport itself between 10°F and 13°F. Highs would not get above freezing Thursday. If we had a snow pack with that kind of cold then single digits even at the Airport would be a good bet. However, the ECMWF is bone dry.

12z ECMWF came in colder back to the -9°C. If that holds, I wouldn't be surprised (presuming excellent radiational cooling setup) if DFW Airport doesn't make a run for the upper teens. The ECMWF is bone dry.

The 12z GFS is significantly warmer then ECMWF, both at the surface and at H85, with this cold blast due to the weaker upper low. The ECMWF and CMC are colder. Will this be colder than anything we saw last year at DFW? Coldest low was 27°F last year. I'm thinking right now we could be 23°F to 25°F at the coldest at DFW Airport. What maybe even more interesting is the intense cold coming after this where the ECMWF has nearly -40°C air entering the CONUS. Where that goes will be interesting?

Today's 0z models, especially ECMWF, have come in quite a bit warmer for potential Arctic air next week. The H85 temps have warmed to -4°C for DFW with the brunt of the arctic air shunted east across the north. The 12z GFS even warmer. Shockingly the yo-yo ride continues with the 12z ECMWF back on board to significant Arctic air with H85 temps back down to -8.3°C for DFW.

12z ECMWF now down to -9.3°C at H85 for DFW next week's Arctic blast Dec 8-10th with 526 partial thickness. Brrrr!

I got you, I figured it was something like that. When I saw your post, I wanted to look into more of details on the early 1900 Decembers to see what actually happened in those months in terms of length of cold and snow/ice. Thanks for the great analysis.

December 1908 was warm at DFW (+3.8 to be exact) with coldest temp of the month 25°F. December 1913 was also just -1.4 for the month with coldest temp of 26°F at DFW. Those years don't stand out. Did you mean 1914 and 1909? Those were -7.4 and -8.0 respectively.

Don't forget January 8, 2015 the temps were 16°F to 38°F that day at DFW. Based on current model data, next week would be a little warmer on the low and maybe a tad colder on the high. So it would be at least as cold as that. Unfortunately, this also looks like a real quick shot much like January 2015 with no snow or ice. The -EPO and -NAO may trend positive again before the month is out which would negate any 1983 reprises.

Today's 0z ECMWF is down to -8.5°C at H85 for the potential Arctic blast December 8th through 10th. If that were to verify, that would mean the coldest air at DFW in nearly 2 years. Which, of course, isn't saying much as the lowest temp all last winter was an unprecedented 27°F and we had no days below 40°F for highs. Who knows what is going on with today's 0z and 6z operational GFS. It seems to be odd with no Arctic air as the last several runs have had it.

Pattern starting to look interesting on 12z ECMWF for this weekend. Quite a bit colder than the 12z GFS, especially in upper levels. Looks like a raw, chilly, wet weekend with temps in the 40s for DFW for highs and lows in the 30s. Also, both the GFS and ECMWF are trending to what could be a bona fide Arctic blast by the December 10ish timeframe. ECMWF has nice little system with the cold air too on its D10! Could December tank like '83?

Well it finally looks like we are going to get some colder weather for a change this coming weekend. Lows look good upper 30/near 40 for DFW Airport by Sunday morning. It'll make for quite the change. Also, looks like the rest of the month may see more cold shot potential.

DFW Airport sets another unprecedented record today. It still has not fallen below 50°F officially. Last year set the latest record of doing so on November 8, 2015. Unless we can manage to do so in the next couple of days (and it might be close), this is really going to be some record of being the latest ever to fall below 50°F. On top of which, when is it going to get colder? I thought for sure the drop of the SOI at the end of October would have forced the pattern change. GFS is on board for later next week for a real cold front, but the ECMWF has been waffling back and forth with the latest runs deflecting all the cold air to the east. My hopes for any winter a really going down with each passing day.

1963-64 was terrific winter but is different to me than currently. After all, that warm October of 63 did at least see us drop below 50°F during the month. However, I think for a near term analog for DFW based on what is happening 1950-51 doesn't look too bad. The 1950-51 was slightly below normal overall but a very up and down winter with major arctic blasts in December, January, and February with snow and ice to boot. I have seen a lot of talk about 1983-84 and 1984-85 winters being weighted twice as analogs for this winter, but I just think both of those are extremes for us and not good analogs. Besides aren't the SST from those years quite different than now? I mean the AMO was in the negative phase, as was 1963-64.

This is true that warm October's correlate to warm winters at DFW. However, there is an exception and that is 1947-48. That October was also on the warm side but that winter was very cold (see below). However, I'm starting to worry as well that this will be another blow torch winter. Especially with the Arctic as warm as it has been. If the signals come together for cold to be delivered, but there really isn't much cold to deliver, then it can be all that cold right? So far we have not fallen, officially at DFW Airport, below 50°F (although I know Arlington and Fort Worth both have). There have only been 4 years where this hasn't happened in October, 1947, 1950, 2004, 2015. 2016 will likely join the ranks as year number five. All of those were warm winters except for 1947-48 (very cold against averages), 1950-51 (slightly cold against averages, although lowest temp was 6°F that winter). Winter 1947-48 overall was -5.1 below normal December was -4.4 below normal with the coldest temp of 27°F. January was -7.5 below normal with 3 distinct snow/ice events with a prolonged Arctic outbreak. The first snow event was on 1/19/48 with 2.0 inches of snow in a WAA pattern form Artic outbreak which began on 1/17/48 with coldest temp of 16°F. The big Arctic outbreak began on 1/24/48 and lasted through 1/30/48 with 6 consecutive days of subfreezing temps. Two snow events culminated in a total of 6.2 inches of snow/ice with lowest temp of 11°F during period and for the month. February was -3.6 below normal with two major ice storms. One on 2/8/48 0.4 ice followed by low of 19°F. The second over two days 2/12 - 2/13 resulting in 0.5 ice followed by low of 21°F. This look to be more of WAA ice storm. Coldest temp of the month was 19°F. Winter 1950-51 was -0.3 below normal for winter... It did have a major Arctic outbreak the end of January into early February 1951 that left 5 days consecutive of subfreezing temps. The lowest temp was 6°F and 8°F on two separate days. There was snow and ice up to 2 inches during this outbreak. Another snow storm of 3.0 inches occurred on 2/14/51 with lowest temp of 21°F.