wokeupthisam

I check in here for both the met insights, and the banter.  Both are interesting enough to me to spend a decent amt of time reading and checking in.  It's fun.  The emotional reactions are a part of that, for better or worse.  When I hear mets talking about favorable patterns it gives me a boost in day to day interest of what might happen, and I start hoping for something memorable.  When patterns aren't favorable, it takes my day-to-day interest down a few notches, that's all.  For all the obvious reasons (sudden recurving typhoon to proverbial butterfly wings in Mongolia) there's always a chance something unexpected happens.  To think otherwise is just foolish.  That said, long years of watching models has me realizing that when persistent patterns set in, it's time to watch for (met) signs of a change.  And then when they inevitably show up, realizing they're more often delayed beyond the original fcst window.  But getting mad at mets who are simply saying what the models show is an entertaining study in futile emotions, same as denial and wishcasting.  It's all part of the board drama. 

All that said, I'm fine with a toasty November but hoping real signs of a mid-December change start showing up.  Like others here, I hate to lose late December to torches so hoping the grinch takes a much-needed break this year for a change.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll probably just listen to Sarah McLachlan and sulk in the drizzle and fog enveloping me. 

"Through early morning fog I see, the visions of what is to be

"The snows that are withheld from me

"I realize and I can see...

"The torches are relentless, and winters are eventless

"And I can't take or leave it, it's CC..." 

46F and .46" 

Sympatico

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Wolfie, you think that temps will be below normal for a long enough period of time to cancel out all the warm departures over a longer duration?  Like in the long run?  Compared against “normals” that even rise every 10 years and cheat the temps from 50 years ago?

Or do you say that just as, there will be periods of colder than normal weather still?

I think we are going to continue to get short-duration higher-end cold season events (QPF rich storms into barely 0C thermals).  The mean thermals though will also continue to average out on the warmer than normal side with plenty of unfavorable parameters.

...of course the persistence method works well, until it doesn't ; )

29.8F 

heavy heavy

First time seeing with the naked eye, spectacular, phone pics really wild.  Different colors from deep blue, to purple, to orange to red depending on cardinal direction.  Wow

Right, and as one who suffered thru those 1980s I think the futility was of a different sort.  I remember several years of bone numbing cold shots blowing across bare or lightly dusted ground.  That gave the sense of being in winter despite missing snowstorms in every way possible - the last two years haven't had that type of cold in SNE.

3 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Broke the . Hate to see it

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm dreading the season. Last two years took a toll, it was literally depressing for me. This is the first time I've ever felt that way. Hoping for the best.

I recall the years when SNE was enjoying big snows, seasoned posters saying folks were getting spoiled and reminding to enjoy it while it lasted.  Ones who lived thru the 1980s referencing the contrast, how bad it was and how much it would suck if futility returned.  Aaand... Here we are, albeit with the bonus of constant allusion to endless warming, no wonder the frost has gone off the pumpkin so to speak...

39.9°  covered the tomatoes just in case

52.2F and 0.74" much needed water.  Dark and drizzly stark contrast to yesterday

56.1F raining lightly past 2 hrs, 0.13".  After weeks of perfect outside chore weather, finally a good day for an after-5p bourbon and a John Wick movie

Low of 49.3, beautiful start to the day

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple'  ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute.

there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries.    they are 'asymptotes'  

if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound.   there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. 

just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0.  

everything exists between those two end points along a probability spectrum; as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. 

when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'.

then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. 

in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

 

Yeah and then there's also this important reality:

"We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." - Werner Heisenberg

And because our 'methods of questioning' are flawed and changing (not always for the better, ex 'improvements' in Euro model) those who buy into settled science are betraying their coefficient of foolishness rather plainly

13 hours ago, wokeupthisam said:

Core went maybe a mile N of me, constant CG, 'green' sky & cool structure

A drone in town got this shot of the same storm from a little further away.  Was amazing looking up at this from directly below but his drone shot is classic.

39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Algorithms might be getting tricked by some of the bad data due to scatter spikes. But I could see siggy hail in there.

Core went maybe a mile N of me, constant CG, 'green' sky & cool structure

A lot of cliche advice floating around.   Sounds simple:  'buy on the dips' but that ignores the possibility of a sharpening correction and chasing added losses to the point of wasting years waiting to ride an improving mkt back to the starting point.  Dollar cost averaging notwithstanding, it's not like there's no downside to buying during a selloff.  

Finally some luck with heavier rain hanging around long enough to soak in, 1.89" since about 6:30am.  Badly needed esp with a return of heat looming.

Line split / attenuated some as it approached but had a lingering back edge that got us to .78" of welcome water into the soil

0.11" yesterday from morning sprinkles, nada from aftn convection either missed to north, or dried up on approach.  0.24" for July mtd and just 1" in last 30 days.  Crunched vs crushed.

Here's the two severe-warned storms over Maine near Gorham 

A bit warm to the touch out there.  Ambient station reads 92.8/79.7 and feels like 111.5.  Situated in full sun at about 11ft over thick grass.  No mowing or outdoor chores today any way it's sliced...

17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ticks have been terrible so far - the mild winter really didn't help this cause. 

Maybe more the result of the prolonged excessive moisture last year.  Drought seems to curtail their ranks noticeably more so than cold.

Was in Vegas July 5-11 in 2021.  Couldn't be outside in the sun for more than a minute or two, skin felt as if it were touching a hot stove except there was no way to pull away, while in the shade it just felt like standing too close to a fire.  Temp went over 114 multiple days, highest was 117 I think.  Even the locals were complaining, just brutal.

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You figure that translates up here as we go into June and beyond.

Acres of lawn growing fast now - dandelions allowed as they're early food for honeybees.  We drive on this grass with vehicles including an 12,000 lb tractor all the time, and never aerate, treat, or water.  When it's dry (as in 2022) it gets brown and we let it go dormant.  Good 'old farm' soil over 12" deep and continued natural wildlife 'fertilization' keeps it happy.