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wokeupthisam

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Posts posted by wokeupthisam

    NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

    in New England

    Posted

    7 in as of 6pm today, not bad for this winter, cold air/better ratios seem hard to come by - keeps the slate of near-32 degree snow events intact for this winter, this one was between 28F and 31F throughout.  Right on the modeled line here for good snows this upcoming week.

    "We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

    in New England

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Complexities in the failing cyclogenic feed-backs are causing this thing to 'wobble' considerably in very recent guidance cycles.  There's too weak of ambient baroclinicity/vague frontal slopes in the OV and lower Lakes region, as this very deep (-4 SD ) 500 mb anomaly and very powerful associated jet/jetlett maxums are fisting their way around the under belly and outpacing the polar front.  This thing is missing an anchor point/foot

    I'm noticing there is weaker gradient and mid level winds on the northern side of the 500 mb barrel, and that's a red flag for a sfc position too far NW of support when you see that - pick a heart ache that went out to sea on us if you need a memory refresher and odds are you'll look that up in library and see something similar... 

    The 18z really pressed the mid level vortex so far E that at this point it's outrunning support for the previous sfc low location(s).  It almost looks devoid of a real cyclostrophic axis and is blown open like a broad generalized area of deep PP anomaly.   Very strang looking system... "as modeled" - wondering if this thing may change in future guidance.   This strange abnormal look and abandoning primary aspect could be a sign of trying to change to a different scenario in future runs.  

    No I'm not saying we're back on for snow per se- not even close.. .Just that this systems handling is in question.  That is all...

     

    Subtle but squinty-eyed hints in recent guidance of the bolded paradigm - we'll see if they continue on to a different scenario (elongated/weaker or double-barrel) or hold to a single stemwinder boring it's way into central Quebec per current consensus.    

    "We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

    in New England

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

    And consensus guidance.  

    I think this is more to the point.  To be accurate, the CFS did shift the primary from it's 12z run yesterday from over Ottawa, to Jackman ME... and if the consensus modeling began shifting similarly, eyebrows would be raised....  That said, on 12/15 the consensus guidance was a great-look setup for a major coastal and in just one day the consensus morphed to a GL special with only the GFS still in denial...  I suppose that's why its called 'guidance' and why wx is so fascinating albeit frustrating. 

    "We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

    in New England

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, George001 said:

     

    The pattern did come (-nao, -epo, +pna), but the analogs didn’t work because the earth is warmer than it used to be. Yes I’m blaming climate change for this, I know I’ll get a lot of shit for it but this type of pattern used to be good until the damn ocean furnaced. Hell, the Atlantic is so warm I’m considering going to the cape and trolling for stripers right now in mid December. I bet I’d catch a massive bass. Oh well, on to January. After this cutter it looks like we will get a thaw for a bit on the long range models. I say bring it on, we need a pattern reset and reload. 

    One thing I've learned from reading what the mets on here have said over the years (among many learnings I might add) is this:  The Atlantic may be a big ocean, but it's no Pacific.  It was said well earlier:  Want to avoid cutters?  Get a ridge over the Pac coast/Rockies.  We didn't have the +pna where and when it was needed.  The Pacific is a force.

    • Like 3

    Met Summer Banter

    in New England

    Posted

    5 hours ago, wxtrix said:

    if you have something to say to me, especially if it’s a bunch of lies, have the courage to say it to me to my face. 

     

    The carnival barker is back, "Step right up, see if YOU can be the first to win whack-a-mole! Take on the challenge of whacking at 'a bunch of lies...' and win a goldfish or a box of chiclets, your choice!... Pay no mind that the previous innumerable attempts have failed to make it see even a single error in its ways, YOU could be a WINNER!  Step right up, who's NEXT?..."

    Met Summer Banter

    in New England

    Posted

    6 hours ago, wxtrix said:

    there's a politics forum with an active covid thread. but after all the money put into a separate politics forum, no one can sign up for it because there is no staff support for it, so the dumb covid takes end up here.

    ...aaaand there it is, step right up folks:  the self-appointed arbiter of intelligence and truth has opened its booth.  Take your turn, one booth multiple games:  strawman knockdown; whack-a-mole deflection; link-me-up; and dodge-the-hive attack... step right up,  who's next?...

     

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

    May 2021 Discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

    I think the oaks are about a week or so behind where I live. I go by how bad the pollen strings are in the pool. I'm usually finished with that mess by the 10th or so. They're still dropping. 

     

    Ash trees are just starting, they're behind everything else here except the two 130+ yr old Mulberries that are always last to leaf out (may be why they've endured)... they otherwise look healthy and are well-established, it could be an early sign of EAB damage :yikes:

    Spring Banter

    in New England

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

    The generational hatred in here is sad

    Generation has nothing to do with it.  Ideas and statements do.  Taking responsibility for one's own views and statements, rather than attributing critique to a false generalization, is liberating and highly beneficial to learning.

    • Haha 1

    Spring Banter

    in New England

    Posted

    6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

    Anyone here put in a shed without a permit? The shed is small and doesn’t require any sort of building permits or anything, but they want you to send them a fee with a design of where the shed will go, so they can give you “sign off”

    I like to do things by the rules, but it seems to be opening up a can of worms. 
     

    Additionally, I live on a private street and the shed will sit on my rear property line, and the land behind it is owned by the preserve I belong to, not the town or anyone else.

    My neighbors are aware and don’t care.

    Should I bother?

    Faced the same situation in a new suburban subdivision.  Decided against the variance route, and the permit - it was a 12x16 I built myself.  Put it on cinder block supports.  Never had an issue, town re-appraised on a routine schedule and just added the shed to the property tax.  Sold the house and never had an issue.  I got advice from a neighboring town building inspector who I knew personally:  if the shed isn't permanently anchored to a foundation, it could always be moved (dragged) to comply if there was a forced issue.  Went with that and worked out great. 

    • Like 2
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