weathertree4u

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

damn,look at the 2m's

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-JAN                  41.6    41.0    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  45.1    41.2    45.2    41.1    07003   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  49.1    45.2    46.3    43.2    07003   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  46.7    44.5    46.4    45.0    15008   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  50.8    46.4    50.8    50.3    17011   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  56.5    50.8    56.6    56.0    18010   0.59    0.00      93    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  59.9    50.6    49.9    48.9    29008   0.18    0.00      81    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  49.9    29.9    29.7    23.9    33014   0.08    0.05     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  29.7    23.3    23.2    13.4    34012   0.00    0.00      42    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  29.1    22.5    29.2    13.2    33009   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  30.9    27.1    27.0    13.7    35006   0.00    0.00      70    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  27.0    21.2    21.1     6.5    04005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN  21.2    18.9    18.9     4.7    05005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  30.5    18.7    30.8     5.7    07004   0.00    0.00      89    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  34.1    28.1    28.2    11.1    09005   0.00    0.00      78    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  28.5    26.6    27.4    10.0    15007   0.00    0.00      43    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  32.0    27.3    31.9    19.3    17010   0.00    0.00      65    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  44.5    31.9    44.8    26.4    17012   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  46.5    44.5    46.2    34.2    17012   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  47.8    45.9    47.9    43.1    18014   0.04    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  50.0    47.7    49.8    46.6    18014   0.06    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.1    49.3    54.7    51.6    20007   0.22    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  54.7    41.4    41.2    41.0    34007   0.23    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  41.2    36.8    36.9    36.7    01007   0.37    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  37.0    36.4    36.4    36.1    00007   0.16    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.6    35.1    35.0    34.7    34011   0.68    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  35.2    31.9    31.8    28.1    31011   0.60    0.29      97    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  31.9    28.0    28.2    22.1    31007   0.01    0.01      98    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  28.4    23.1    23.0    15.3    32007   0.00    0.00      68    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  27.1    21.1    27.4    11.5    34002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.2    25.3    25.9    13.4    07003   0.00    0.00      99    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.3    21.7    25.7    15.2    15004   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  32.5    25.3    32.6    24.8    18007   0.01    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  35.5    32.6    35.2    33.2    20006   0.17    0.14     100    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  35.9    22.8    22.4    18.2    34012   0.34    0.29     100    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  22.4     6.2     5.8    -3.9    32013   0.31    0.31      99    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN   5.8    -6.6    -6.8   -14.8    32008   0.01    0.01      34    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -1.4    -8.7    -1.2   -16.8    28010   0.00    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 28-JAN   0.5    -2.4    -2.2   -15.3    28009   0.00    0.00       5    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -2.2    -9.0    -9.1   -15.8    27006   0.00    0.00       3    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -9.1   -12.8   -12.9   -18.6    26005   0.00    0.00       8  

What is that at the surface?

Just now, Mr Bob said:

Nashville is below zero for at least 30 hours.....

1985ish or just below? 

4 minutes ago, Mr Bob said:

Holy crap! 

What are the temperatures behind that??

37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

3k NAM is very aggressive for wave one still per the 06z run. At 0z the area of heavy snow was over NW Tn. Will have to see if other models begin to see this level of action or if it's just the 3k towards the end of it's range being a little too aggressive.

Things that make you go hmm.....

42 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Yes, I'll take one 1/27/98 redux, please. 

Still looking pretty cold in the long range if nothing else 

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

 

Appears more south than prio?

26 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Both sets of Ensembles keep the 11-15 day colder than normal. GFS/FV3 may have both been bad runs. Perhaps a bird farted near a jet taking samples over the Pacific.

Hope so

11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

TN gonna be day 200% of normal snow in no time!

Not unless the pattern shifts dramatically pretty soon! Looks like it is all GLC for foreseable future. 

Are the guys at the NWS in Nashville looking at the same modeling as everyone else, the last of the morning discussion...

 will be some 40 to 50 degrees
colder than highs on Saturday. Thankfully, the Arctic cold blast
does not look like it will last long as models show temperatures
warming up quickly by the middle of next week ahead of our next
storm system.

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

GFS is a cutter/miller B parade. Warms up, rains, very cold, rinse and repeat. Actually happened just like that in I believe December of 1982. Rain and then below 0 temps, then back to rain again.  Not saying that's going to happen here but it's happened before and the GFS is throwing it out there, so it's possible. 

Middle TN looks close in allot of those....but, like you said, it is possible.

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is very cold just inside of 200 with no snow on the ground.  Though I really don't worry about specifics at that range...still pretty impressive.  If one likes winter, those types of runs are a very good indicator.

That kind of cold not good for things with no snow cover though imo

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The FV3 may have actually gotten colder as hard as that is to believe. If it's off by 15 degrees it'd still be below 0 in our region. 

Yea, hard to believe that it has. What is the accuracy of the model at this range?

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

As TNWN said, look at the 18z FV3-GFS. It's colder than 12z. It has highs below 10 nearly state wide and lows in the double digits below 0.

Spoiler alert lol, was just pulling it up!

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs  rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska.

All right, I will trust you, and hope to see my frigid temps back over night lol!

So, it appears that the latest GFS run is not having any of the frigid cold and storminess, hopefully just a hiccup...

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

My bad weathertree, I meant to quote carvers post with the snowfall maps on it, instead i accidentally Quoted your message.  That’s my bad, sorry for the confusion.  E17 is one of the maps in carvers post that looks really juicy for the whole state.

No worries, that is what I thought but wanted to ask. I secretly wanted it to be a new model I had not seen yet lol

1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

E17 coming in for the win!!!  It’s hard not to get excited about our potential pattern over the next few weeks.  Maybe just maybe we can pull out an I-40 special and get the whole state involved in a big time wintry event.  

Hard not to get excited but what is E17?

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Another really good ensemble 0z suite last night.  Right now, I am just looking for the pattern and not storms.  I look at the snow means to see if there are upticks there. For those new to the wx hobby, snow means rarely verify...but if they are increasing and/or stout that usually signals a stormy pattern.  Here are a couple of slides from overnight.  The actual hammer coming down is around d8 now.  By hammer, I mean trough in the eastern half of NA.  Below are the 6z GEFS 16d snow mean(w individuals...snow mean is the last slide) and the 0z Euro d9 850 temps.  There are two time frames where the snow means really moves...d8-10 and d10-15.  Notice how far south some members are(likely means a cold front heading well into the Deep South) and how some seem to indicated the potential for a strong storm.  The 850 map shows the EPS now losing the washed out look that it had.  It is really amplifying the eastern trough w cold 2m temps underneath.  For now, it looks like most models are centered on Jan 20 as the final step into what hopefully will be a blocky, cold, stormy pattern.  The temperature change between d7.5 and 8.5 is impressive.

Safe to say, if a few inches of snow can be laid down, there will not be much if any opportunity for moderation of any cold air dropping down from Canada!

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just a very warm look on most modeling this AM for at least the next two weeks.  I continue to believe we will see a backloaded winter, but there is virtually no model support for that idea this morning.  Time will tell.  Still going to roll with climatology.  The falling SOI is a good sign.  The “one step forward, two steps back” for the past week is not a good sign.  

Keep waiting but in two to three weeks, if there is still no indication of at least freezing temps, I say pack it in. My opinion of course, just haven't liked the writing on the wall for the last four weeks lol.

10 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Just read Hailstorm’s posts and find them fascinating. Conceptually...makes sense. Still trying to wrap my mind around the ripple effect and the order each ripple occurs in. Would be much more enjoyable watching solar wind, PEE, QBO, MJO trends if it weren’t for the fact this winter was so hyped. Letdown processing understood better in light of Dr. Cohen’s recent postings. I think next winter is already setting up to be less disappointing based on lessons we’re currently learning. I apologize as one who went after the carrot prematurely back in early October. 

Well said and right there with you!

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Seasonal predictions are just a total crapshoot.  (I think it is Mr Bob that doesn't like analogs.  I think he and Jeff are ENSO guys in terms of seasonal drivers.  This year is a great example of why.)  Getting a handle on chaos is one of the great frontiers of Mathematics.  I don't hold seasonal forecasts against anyone.  I just appreciate folks giving it a shot.  Right now, chaos just got the better of many.  For example, who could have predicted the MJO would be on steroids and that the SOI would have stayed negative for December during a Nino?  Maybe we could have seen the gradient deal...I wouldn't have even thought about that until now!  But, we are much better now at forecasting than 20 years ago.  That said, if we still get a backloaded winter all that we needed to do was just take weak Nino climatology.  Nino winters are notoriously warm in December and then flip during mid-January.  The Nina winters are usually extreme cold and warmth along with being dry.  Second year Nina winters are a bit different and can be better than the first year.  Last winter, we went bone dry during a superb stretch of excellent cold.  Last winter was a good look to steal a basketball term...it just didn't drop.  It was a second year Nina.  Moderate to strong Nina winters or Super Ninos are generally just bad for this area.  So, I rolled with ENSO climatology this year just to keep it simple...and I am still in the game.  I am not saying that to boast...because really I am just using the weak Nino research that has already been done.  So, that really isn't my idea.  I may just use ENSO for my winter ideas during the future along w my favorite, the QBO.  Now, I will echo what Bob Chill has been preaching all day in the MA thread....some winters are known for good patterns on modeling that just keep getting pushed back.  That said, as PSU stated, most winters rarely feature the same pattern for the entire winter.  So, this likely shakes up...could be worse or could be better.  Plus, we live in area that can see 2-3 blanks during a decade.

True of course on all points! Hopefully things will turn around, after all, we are just entering January!

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

No doubt.  My last tree finally dropped its leaves due to the abnormally hot weather in September and October.  I may only have like a four week break before the grass has to be cut again(hopefully that is not the case)!  LOL.

Keep thinking will get some ray of hope lol but wow, this is like the third or fourth winter in a row that has seemingly at this point, gone the opposite of what was predicted 

By the looks of long range, I will need to start mowing the lawn again here pretty soon, just crazy, especially when one considers all the predictions for just the opposite this Winter. 

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

More stratospheric fun: here is a late breaking thread with almost everyone I've seen involved in the strat. discussion and may start to explain some of the trouble models have been having with this seemingly rare "wave 3" event. 

 

So, are we talking eventual cold or eventual 1985 vodka cold?

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Sorry.  I was just waiting for the second half of Weeklies(first is hindcast...second is the normal run) to get finished.  Plus, my jaw hit the floor.  Still trying to gain composure.  LOL.  Sometimes they differ.  Easy explanation for this run.  Cold.  Weeks 2-7 are BN for temps....as a caveat, probably closer to the second half of week two.  The control has multiple Arctic outbreaks.   Basically just reloads a retrograding trough beginning in week 2.  Now, it is just one run...but that was impressive.  I suspect one of our folks will be kind enough to put the control and mean for snow.  If not, I will drop it in here later.

Why wait pretty please lol