Alfoman

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

still 41 here - 42 at DCA.

Not sure if we will hit below 33 until after the precip already moves out - will still be fun to watch the snow fall tonight. Just think the amp and shift north definitely made the already marginal temp situation for DC proper worse! I'll take my 1-2 and run though! 

Just now, Ji said:

Gfs does not drop the ns into the ss. No cold despite decent track

I think the Euro evolution is our best shot to get our big (or larger) ticket storm but it is going to be a delicate solution to achieve. We really need that NS to drop down and begin the phase at the exact right moment for this to work and even if it does, the interior is favored in this kind of setup. Good news is we did see the SS dip deeper and a less noisy Eastern Canada allowing more cold air to filter in but Euro much more aggressive with that TPV lobe. 

Even with a +NAO in place, with all that energy rotating around in Canada, we could see a phased storm time itself correctly as long as we can get the STJ to actually produce a potent wave or two instead of that sheared flat shit it keeps throwing our way. 

For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours...

Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.  

GFS slightly north of 12z and 18z position at 84 hours...this is not a winner in the slighest

Hope Euro and the EPS tell a different picture and the GFS is not leading the way on this 

NS farther north at 72 hours, our shortwave more amped - less confluence, less cold air, lower surface pressure 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gfs blah. Took PSU snow away and shifted the axis north 

Almost identical low placement to 12Z, just more amped and axis of precip moves north 

Surface low slightly more north and more amped through 72 hours 

Edit: We need this to slow down or our cold press continues to get worse moving into the window, GFS progressively speeding this up slightly each run

This one seems out of reach yet we haven't played our ultimate trap card just yet....

Open a new thread

Surface low just behind WV at Hour 108, definitely a tad bit faster than 12Z 

Tad bit quicker so far and thevort closes off 6 hours sooner

Last several storms we've looked at this winter, the GFS has trended towards increased wave separation in the medium range (3-5 days) and has lead the others in that regard - including the initial Jan storm (rain here) and I believe both of our small snowstorms mid-month. 

While not an ideal setup for us, I won't say its dead until we're inside 3 days

Can't wait for us to track the end of February period and get a big storm on the models...only for most of us to miss it to the south or north after all the anticipation 

FRINGEEEEEEEEEDDDDD

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

but shooting blanks the first 2 weeks of February after those tasty Feb charts from the seasonals?

If the last two weeks of February into the beginning of March verify as they are modeled at the moment - you couldn't say that the seasonals were completely off base. They're used as a guide to the longwave pattern progression, no one is using them to pinpoint exact week-by-week shifts. Being off by two weeks and then getting it right would be a crazy good win for the seasonals. 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

i will say---if you would of showed me this chart after the September European seasonal monthlies came out....i would of been truly shocked for this time period. Not at all what i envisioned

 

 

 

Wall to wall cold and snow for a chosen two week period during the winter is just absolutely never a guarantee when you live in and around the MA region. Mod El-Nino or not, breaks and warm ups happen even in our greatest of years. 

20 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? 

On this note - interesting progression of the snow outputs on the GFS Ens the past few runs. While it is likely skewed by a few members that bomb out, nice to see a strengthening of the output along the MA coast 

While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? 

18Z GFS rolling now...crazy east trend continues for that shortwave to our NE past 5 runs 

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think it could be oriented as to hold a cold high over Quebec without obliterating our storm at the same time.

This scenario is such a delicate balance. 

The separation with the lobe over NE Canada is what allows the ULL to strengthen and pull northward in the first place, however that also can serve as our cold air source if we can get the surface High over Quebec to stay in position and provide CAA towards CAD regions. Current evolution on the GFS is cold enough here as you can see the negative 850 mb temps being pulled into the DMV area as the low bombs off-shore but the lack of precip means there is no cooling at the surface which explains the surface temps in the mid/upper 30s.  If the NS energy moves too far offshore, the cold air source is now gone and we are left with marginal temps at best. A phase would allow a bomb off the coast and the colder temps to be pulled in, but that scenario needs perfect timing for the phase...

The players are all on the table though.

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is a wild pattern right now. I remember way back when reading a forecaster discussion on CPC where he said models struggle with pattern changes. I think right now we are gonna see wild swings and lack of consistency. Just the nature of the pattern we are seeing.

You saw this with the beginning of January when the pattern began changing - the models had a 4-5 stretch with much lower verification scores as they tried to adjust and figure out the synoptic evolution progressing.

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's going to be too warm leading up to this.

 

That doesn't matter if you get under some decent rates even with terrible ratios. NAM has surface temps around 34-35, a little cooler than 18Z, that could easily accumulate on grass. Could be fun to watch fall if we got lucky here at the least! 

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

For goodness sake---how do we get snow around  here

You need a reliable mechanism to get sustainable cold air into the region that doesn't get pushed out by every cutter. Only way to beat that is an incredibly timed system that threads the needle coupled with a well placed 50/50 on its way out. Going to be difficult to escape our glorious cutters the next 10 days or so as we wait for that Pac Jet to clam down moving into early Feb. 

If you want snow in the area though, look out your window tonight

1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

Looks like the heaviest snow producer could be the overnight 5 AM band as the LP shifts towards the coast. The path towards success is a stronger more organized LP off the NC coast. This would make temps slightly more marginal but I think it would be a worth it trade off for I-95  

See the difference of the vort trending south and the LP north on the NAM

Looks like the heaviest snow producer could be the overnight 5 AM band as the LP shifts towards the coast. The path towards success is a stronger more organized LP off the NC coast. This would make temps slightly more marginal but I think it would be a worth it trade off for I-95  

Never doubt Papa Euro

I believe this is what Heisy was mentioning on a previous page, but increased separation between these NS SWs is evident on the GFS the past few runs - this leads to a flatter evolution of our southern stream interaction for the 16th. While it is not a significant amount, the 12Z Euro moved towards more separation here as well (like it had yesterday at 12Z actually). I've been noticing this so far with the GFS this winter, it seems to be the first to sniff out how far energy will pull back in general. It lead the charge for a flatter and weaker 500 mb vort evolution for our last storm in the Day 3-5 range which ended up being the correct forecast compared to more progressive CMC and Euro solutions. Something to keep in mind.