danstorm

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up.

So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it.  Great weather nerding opportunity!  There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales.  I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F.

This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998.   Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. 

This, btw, is not that.   The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today.  It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean.  "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour.  Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z.    Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC  - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield.   It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow.  LOL

I figure in the end, who cares.  One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much.  Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming.

I'll be pushing 80 down here 10 miles WNW of Manhattan, meanwhile Stowe gets 6-8"+

Can't recall ever seeing that

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Not the ski area but this was Stowe last Friday. 

So sick... I've been jealous all winter, despite spending two long weekends in Southern Vt. this winter

1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

great run, cold lurking, have to think some of these get underneath NNE

I'm trying to convince the family for one last trip up to Stowe... 

And want to play hookey and get one final big ski day for myself

12z GFS extends ski season in a big way 

Winds really kicking up the last hour here... with mod snow falling - this is the most exciting part of this multifaceted event.  Great snow growth and likely 2.5-3" since the flip a few hours ago.  

We had 16 hours of light snow adding up to 4" then an inch and a half of sleet of varying intensity (mixed with some zr) over 12 hours adding up to 1.5, then a dramatic flip to S/S+.  

New England at its finest 

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What a stretch with no real big synoptic storms but just non stop snow.  Even whiteface has cashed in

 

I'd call this a pretty big synoptic storm 

Turning to snow now as 850 low clears our longitude 

Fgen enhancing a bit 

We may get 2-3" on the back end after a messy 5-6

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In town…

So sick 

Most sleet I've seen since VD 2007 while living in Boston 

Literally 12 hours straight in S VT (Wilmington)

Shut out of skiing for faux icing threat - closed all the summit lifts at Mt Snow while we got slotted this morning and had freezing drizzle 

Yesterday was awesome though up here 

Looks to wrap with a few hours of decent snow as the 850 mb low clears out longitude and a spoke of fgen swings through.

5" snow/sleet here in S VT (Wilmington)

We got about 4 overnight, then mod sleet then it largely shut off for a while.

Unfortunately, the dry slot resulted in a bit of FZDZ mixing with the light sleet (and needles, it really was a kitchen sink situation) around 930-11 am - we arrived at the slopes around 10 just as they closed all express lifts because of ice

So we turned around and left (the line for the non-bunny lift was easily 90 min).  The Moover bus took about 40 min to get us back and around 1230, I heard they re-opened several good lifts.  

Worst part is there was very little icing at all.

May try to get a few runs tomorrow but it will be 7 degrees with high wind. Frustrating!

Wow, after putting down 6-8" of snow, RGEM drops 0.5-0.75" of QPF as sleet for portions of CNE.  That is a high impact event!

Well, it seems like the slopes did not get completely hammered yesterday.  Looks fast, smooth, and not too slick on the Mt. Snow cams.  

Tomorrow looks to be a pretty good day, if crowded.

Storm now looks like 5-7" of snow then a lot of sleet ending as FZDZ/FZRA.  Hopefully lift operations are not disrupted, conditions should be great.

Monday will be absolutely frigid, we'll see if we make it out at all!

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Positive snow depth change I’ve found to be almost universally too conservative if you’re forecasting actual snowfall but it’s semi-useful to use as a floor scenario.

Well said and agree

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro healthy front end. 4” S CT to 6” in pike/Rt 2 region. 

Will, mind posting a map?

22 minutes ago, mreaves said:

BTV has an early map out for the next event.

 

Looks reasonable 

Reggie warmer, primary gets further north

Icon is a huge dump for the Greens

5 minutes ago, Not me in VT said:

Couple of medical calls up at the mountain already, not looking good up here, currently 34 and rain at the base. Power situation on Sunday it looks doubtful. 

You think more FZRA than IP Sunday?

And assume it's all going to freeze up for Saturday? 

Wonderful.

8 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I'm sure we haven't seen the final shape of this storm yet. Don't know if it will get better or worse, but I think there's still a decent chance that Sunday will be soft even at Mt Snow. I don't find sleet particularly unpleasant to ski in.

How winds affect lifts is so unpredictable. I've skied undisrupted so many days when folks here guaranteed the lifts would be closed due to wind.

It does look like the Euro now shows a marginally better solution compared to the GFS.

I can't tell you how many times I've gone through this evolution of thought tracking a storm over the years:

Model runs 1-10: Model A is shows a much better outcome than model B. Hope model A verifies.

Model runs 10-20: Still pulling for model A! I can remember many times when the models have switched places and I end up rooting for the other model, but these solutions are so vastly different, that's surely not possible this time around.

Model run 21: Really hope model B is right about this

Thanks for the perspective

Just about every model shows a 10-15"+ storm for the Southern Greens which in a vacuum would be awesome... hate having to sweat these details.  I only get a few weekend trips a year up there (trying to convince the wife for more, but she's lost the love for skiing).  I'd also love to ski midweek but that's not easy to do (we pulled the kids out of school the Friday of MLK and had a blast)... the crowds are just insane on these holiday weekends.

Going into this weekend, I was hoping for several things (I'm skiing at Mt. Snow Sat-Mon)

- Continuation of no rain to maintain pristine base (FAIL)

- If things did get icy (which they will on Friday), snow starting early enough Saturday to soften things up (looking like a FAIL)

- An all or mostly snow event (FAIL)

- Not having to ski through sleet on Sunday (probable FAIL)

- No wind holds Monday (FAIL)

If you told me I'd be up there to experience a 9-15" event, you'd think I'd be ecstatic but I'm pretty bummed about how things look to develop.  Hoping we get a few more cold tics and perhaps an earlier start Saturday.

Crap, it seems my worst fears are materializing for the weekend, specifically Sat-Mon when I'll be skiing Mt. Snow.

After today's FZRA and a cold Friday, expect frozen granular (or could it stay soft-ish?) for Saturday.

Also, Saturday's snow looks to break out too late to help conditions.

Sunday looks like a sleetfest which is quite unpleasant to ski in.  Maybe there's some time to get this colder?

Monday looks frigid and quite windy so I'd expect wind holds.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

ICON seems a little south of 6z.

Maybe if you squint?

6 hours ago, sankaty said:

18Z GFS now keeps the Killington area mostly or all snow for the weekend, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yep, 0Z even better 

Can we get all snow down to Mt Snow? GFS and CMC print 12+ throughout the Greens

Icon maybe a smidge colder