danstorm

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by danstorm

  2. Posted

    This is a healing thread for snow-starved weens around the Megalopolis.

    I'm taking my family up to Lake Placid/Saranac Lake this weekend and can't wait to get out in the depths.  I need some snow in my life and I have no problem traveling for it.

    • Like 1

  4. Posted

    17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    My man!   How’s it going?  

    Hey man, looooong time!!!

    I'm good, living the dream in the NYC suburbs with my wife and two beautiful kids - Levi is almost 6 and Sadie is 3.

    Not working as a met though I still have a side business I founded in the space.  Work in analytics in the city for a financial services consultancy.  Too many hours but what can you do, Montclair is expensive.

    How are you? Was up in your neck of the woods a few weeks back meeting with a few of our asset management clients in Boston.  

    What a shit-tastic winter we are having, eh? My town lucked out with 6" (local max for the NYC Metro) from the early Dec storm that hit CNE very hard, then had a large ice storm later that month... since then, it's been a fight between rain, torch, and just regular above normal temps.  Of course you guys know that as you've been experiencing the same.

  8. Posted

    3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

    If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

    DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

    Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

       

    Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal?

    Doesn't it get old?

    • Like 3
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    • Haha 2

  9. Posted

    12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January.

     

     

    Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis.

    However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal?

    Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint.  Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

     

    • Like 2

  10. Posted

    47 minutes ago, doncat said:

    The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

     


    Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves.  Same well-worn tropes day after day.  

    • Like 5

  11. Posted

    17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

    Simplistic, but valid points

    cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year.

    My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years

     

    Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days

     

    Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018.

     

    That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

    This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months  - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover.

    Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

  12. Posted

    4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

    Guys it still manages to hit us with 3-6 that’s not too bad for December 1-2nd 

    I actually gave up on it, you're right, there is a period of snow at 51-57 hr that may salvage a decent event.  

    We'll see - certainly doesn't seem to come together fast enough 

  15. Posted

    17 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

    You don't get many cutters with such an anomaly in the EP.

    Strong -EPO s yield arctic waves that actually favor the coast.

    When you have such a strong PNA you need the ridge position centered correctly  and  the trough axis downstrean does the rest.

    The NAO disappears on the EPS day 13 to 15 but by that time the vortex has crashed in and  its just a suppressed storm track at that range.

    Once the vortex relaxes all you need is 1 shortwave , just 1 

    We will see what materializes.

    Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one.

    13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens.  Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range.

    I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills.  We squeezed 10" of pixie dust.  My first child arrived that March, my second August 16.  No more midnight traipes for me!

     

    • Like 3

  17. Posted

    6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

    That’s not an all out torch, and well within the realm of possibilities. And I don’t know what you’re looking at because the current MJO phase is a mild one through at least the first week of December.

    Revisionist history.

    1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average.  Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above.

    2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes.  In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal.  NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below.  And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month.  You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month.  Not happening, not even close.

    3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

    • Like 16

  18. Posted

    2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Sometimes the Pacific just doesn't wan't to play ball.

     

    96.png.e8840bee71fec4e59e8c78ba61a06e43.png

     

    That actually was a pretty good month not far from the Coastal Plain.  I was a Junior in HS at the time in Ridgefield, Ct. and we had two storms within a 3 day period that produced 4-6" of snow.  Both were rain -> snow deals.  Further inland got significantly more.  That was the famous first Jim Cantore thundersnow shot (which as been since replicated several times) from Worcester, Ma.

    • Like 2

  23. Posted

    2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

    Have picked up 0.17" of rain so far today, not really expecting to much more since most of whatever heavier precipitation develops looks to fall to my east.

     

    45 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

    .04 at my station so far. Doesn't look like much else (if anything) for the rest of the night.

     

    32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

    Around a quarter inch here. Meaningless precip.

    If you're gonna bust, you might as well bust spectacularly.