I'm usually one of the first to pick on you when we have a higher end threat, and I know you've seen some very ominous comments from me on other forums today.... but I understand and really respect this more conservative approach... especially when we do have mesoscale questions that need to be answered. However, the one point I want to make about the early initiation.... is that both of these cases so far... have been along west to east oriented boundaries... and it's extremely easy to get initiation in these cases, as compared to along a more north to south oriented boundary... because, most of the time, you have a better chance at EML advection overtop the warm sector in the more north to south scenario. It's an understandable concern, but it may not be quite as comparable. At any rate... especially with convection just upstream... I definitely understand the conservative approach... but with several ongoing things that are leaning away from the convection developing into this big cold-pool driven B.S.... there are some times, as we've seen before, when you just don't need to ignore the synoptic environment that is ultimately driving the mesoscale. I'm sure most people thought, by 4 pm, last April 24th... that the Alabama portion of the HIGH would be a bust... but we had an EF4 and multiple EF3s that night.