5speed6

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Even with the weakening still looks like a beast on visible.  

Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead. 

Looks like 18Z para is still buying what the 12z euro was selling. 

16 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Though they did add more of a west turn to the cone once the storm moves inland.

Consensus line is south of the 2:00 guidance, too. 

1 minute ago, high risk said:

   all of this, and  4)   they have to maintain consistency with the official NHC track     5)  they can't make wild swings with the issuance of products

Yeah, I was going to call it "consistency bias" but I was afraid that would sound too critical. 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's another way to look at it.  They are pros.  Their interpretation of model data doesn't necessarily match ours.

Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate.

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I mentioned this on Twitter. How can this still be the forecast for rain?

Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. 

Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

True but the initial part of this Euro run gets it up closer to Va tidewater than 0z and yesterday’s 12z I believe before it heads to the Georgia Dome. :) Is it still called that??

Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The 'Dome is no more. 

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One interesting note is the 18z gfs initializes Florence much weaker ~964mb and recon already showed 940s earlier.  That strength isn't attained until ~hr54 on the op gfs.

Don't worry; it'll make up for it with like an 837mb low before landfall. 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

My first thought as well. That's a very wide cone for d3-4 spread. Should narrow significantly in 24 hours. 

5:00 p.m. NHC guidance will probably still stay farther north than the mean of those runs. There may be quite a spread, but it's pretty clear which ones are getting more weight. 

2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Panic has started on the community Facebook. Stores here are running out of water (seriously, I was just at Walmart and it was crazy). People in this region are nuts! 

Yeah, a friend just posted a shot of a Kroger in the RVA area. 

5 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

From experience, the road system of coastal South Carolina sucks, badly. If you're near Charleston you get I-26 which gives you 4 lanes if you're doing all lanes away from the coast, otherwise you're left to evacuate on US road systems which vary from 2-laners to 4-laners through towns. On top of that, most of the area is either densely populated (because coast) or poor so if you're organizing people to bus out, that takes time. Just food for thought as to probably why a large swath of SC is being told to evac.

edit: and I agree that there's politics at play as well.

Consider too the limitations imposed by the ICW. There a *ton* of bottlenecks when it comes to moving people to/from the coast quickly. It's arguably just as bad as getting people off the OBX, only there are more of them. 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me guess...the smaller one is Andrew? Lol (the GIF isn't working)

Correct. In the original, Andrew "fades in." 

Interesting piece from a perhaps unexpected source:

Quote

[GasBuddy] tells TechCrunch that it’s now seeing hundreds of gas stations across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina without fuel. It says the hardest hit cities are Miami (30% of stations are out of gas), West Palm Beach (29%), Fort Myers-Naples (20%), Tampa (13%), and Orlando (9% are out.)

https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/as-irma-nears-florida-governor-tells-residents-to-use-gas-buddy-expedia-google-maps-more/

Consider that a lot of states were already experiencing fuel shortages thanks to Harvey's impact on U.S. refining capacity. 

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A large part of Miami would be inundated by a 10-foot storm surge.

Here's a useful tool for those who are interested. One can click anywhere on the map to check the elevation.

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/

The interaction with the Bay could also be a significant factor in how/where surge becomes a major problem, all dependent on the final approach track, of course. 

Yeah, here's hoping that's confusion or poor transmission quality...

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I wimped out and am spending the night in Williamsburg (more accurately,  outside Wythe candy store), and will venture down to the obx tomorrow noonish. Should be over by the time I get there. Personally,  my fear about going down there tonight was a rogue tornado considering that the center will be headed over, or slightly to the west of, the beaches. 

I rode out the leftovers from TS Alberto in a house between Duck and Corolla in 2006, but that tracked just a hair further west/north, IIRC. 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rainfall total for August so far- 0.08".

Grass is toast.

Amazing how little that surplus matters right now. 

As promised, my time lapse:

May be time for a new obs thread? Getting database errors. 

SN+, gotta be around 18 by now, looks like we're about to dry slot.

Still backbuilding, but the incoming bands aren't nearly as impressive. 

Obligatory dog bathroom remodeling photo. 

Eeesh. 

Some great returns on those bands about to cross the Bay too. Northern AACo and Baltimore, get ready!

Returns over AA County getting interesting. BWI just got in it, big time. 

Had to shovel a path to take the dog out. Easily over 12 here but it is hard to get a total with the drifting.

Just went out to do the same. Light snow and riming. Some pingers mixed in. I'm in a horrible spot for measuring but judging by the path I cut, I'd say the mean depth is in the 10" range.