RCNYILWX

Interesting. Their new WCM is Nelson Vaz - he just started. It's hard on those damage surveys to get everywhere so things get missed.

Yup, Nelson is a good guy, I worked with him when I was a SCEP at OKX from Feb 2009 to July 2010. OKX is aware of that damage. I sent a bunch of photos to my friend who works there and was on a midnight shift last night and he passed it to the day shift for survey purposes. I'm just confused why the MIC chose to start the tornado by the church and not farther southwest. Since that damage is so close by I doubt they missed it.

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They got the start point of the tornado wrong. My parents live and I grew up on 121st street between 25th rd and 25th ave. They went out last night after the tornado happened and drove around and took photos. There was some decent damage southwest of the designated St Fidelis Church start point on 120th street between 18th and 20th ave and on 121st street just northeast of there. Might have been some damage closer to Flushing Bay even.

The most noteworthy damage on 120th street near 20th ave were a couple large trees down and a house with minor roof/gutter/siding/fascia damage. For reference, just that point is 0.3 miles from the official PNS start point. I highly doubt that the damage last night where it occurred was anything but tornadic, which also calls into question the end point, particularly how PNS mentioned straight line wind damage east-northeast of end point. Mini supercells are not known for causing straight line wind damage.

I wrote a note to the OKX WCM. Hopefully they take a look at adjusting at least the start point.

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Certainly wouldn't rule out slight risk verifying for elevated hailers with strong effective shear and sufficient mucape but my perception is that it's fairly rare to get a slight risk worthy elevated hailer event around here.

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This can't be right, can it?

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That's true. Aside from the potential for one of these cutoffs to locally produce, we could just as easily see a pattern flip (models can and have been wrong in the long-range) or a random event pop up. Even the worst spring seasons have their share of events. Climo says it's very difficult to get through the last 10 days of April without some notable uptick in severe activity, if that's one piece of optimism I can throw out there.

This isn't a bad thing either for when (if?) a significant pattern change occurs. The slow ULL movement caused by the omega block will produce a very favorable heavy rain setup in the Plains, with a midlevel moisture feed from the EPAC and low level trajectories from the Gulf.

Worked here at NWS Chicago that day. It was scary and somber hearing law enforcement on NAWAS saying 'there's tornadoes everywhere.' Incredibly impressive event, those big cities truly are lucky, considering that the fact that debris rained down in parts of Cincy showed how close it was.