DoctorMu

It's snowing in Cleburne, freezing drizzle in Waco.

Potential freeze in south Florida next week, also. Buy up OJ while you can!

Will be brisk for sure. College Station may see lows in the teens, and subfreezing for 2 days.

Unfortunately, yes. Our snowfall disappeared in 24 hours, but what a fabulous 24 hours! Two miracles in one season are probably too much to hope for. The models and ensemble do show a prolonged cold snap from the 28th through Jan 5...so opportunity for mischief awaits.

wxmx may enjoy the latest GFS run. We've had one 5 inch miracle snow already in CLL this month! Temps in early Jan get even crazier. Entertaining run!

This is the best I've got. Just a freeze. In the distance. Besides for 2 cold days an a 17°F low, the coldest in College sSation in a decade...we've got nothing. After a few days of cloudy, cooler, and rainier weather - back to August doldrums. High humidity, temps, heat indices. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 616 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 .DISCUSSION... Some patchy fog at KLBX and KCXO has produced some brief MVFR conditions, but the fog is shallow and should burn off between 13-14z. The HRRR is bullish with rain chances today along a developing sea breeze boundary. Fcst soundings show PW values between 2.00 and 2.10 inches but the moisture profile looks dry. A weak cap was noted near 850 mb, but the cap looks breakable with heating. Have kept the VCTS for areas for southern TAF sites but have removed the mention of precip from KCLL, KUTS and KCXO. VFR conditions expected tonight with some patchy fog again possible at KCXO/KLBX toward sunrise. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ DISCUSSION... A passing shower or two along with some patchy fog will be possible early this morning, primarily across the Piney Woods region. Ridging begins to take hold of the forecast today, helping us return to a more typical summertime pattern. Could still get some scattered showers and storms both today and Friday, primarily along the sea breeze. Rain chances become more limited heading into the weekend as the ridge remains overhead. With the lowering chances for showers/storms, high temperatures will be on the rise for much of the forecast period, generally ranging from the upper 80s right along the coast to the mid/upper 90s across the Brazos Valley. Light to moderate south to southeasterly flow throughout the upcoming week will keep humidity high, allowing heat index values to surge into the 103-109 degree range during the afternoons. Right now, Friday and Saturday are forecast to have the highest heat index values, and heat advisories may be required.

That doesn't bode well for summer in Texas. If the foliage dries out before summer, it will be a scorcher - even more than the usual.

This is the best I've got. Just a freeze. In the distance. Besides for 2 cold days an a 17°F low, the coldest in College sSation in a decade...we've had nothing resembling winter.

Yeah, who knows. The QBO cycle appears to be disrupted by climate change... http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe

Snow in Big Lake moving towards Junction. Not sure it will reach the Hill Country. Mountains in northern Mexico could be in for a treat. http://www.corad.org/kftw_base.htm

GEM has single digits in DFW area Saturday.

Hoping for a miracle as far south as College Station. It might take the coastal low to dust us. (sorry DFW gang). 2010 was the last frozen stuff that stuck. Expecting a mix though Friday night.

Euro, GFS, GEM running colder with more precip. I'd take light wintry stuff in CLL - rare as it is.

Just...a bit outside!

Think we'll see a warm and dry winter. However, there should be occasional polar blasts as Siberia is already in the deep freeze with a mammoth snow pack.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 350 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... The key issue in the forecast will focus on an incoming trough that will bring the most serious rainfall potential in some time to the area. However, while confidence is high in the first half of the week - particularly Monday - bringing higher rain chances, there is continuing uncertainty about fine details. There continues to be divergent model guidance for the rebuilding of the ridge in the wake of the trough`s passage, which has implications for both lingering rainfall potential and high temperatures deeper into the week. Today into Monday... Despite the appearance of less capping, showers and storms have struggled again to get going this afternoon. While more development has occurred than yesterday, convection has continued to be more widely scattered than perhaps first anticipated. There should be some further increase in coverage into the early evening, but loss of heating will cause convection to wrap up. The WRF-ARW has backed off late evening precip in the area, which seems reasonable based on observational trends today, and have not bumped PoPs up north. Focus then turns to the approach of both a vort max from the Mississippi Valley and a TUTT low that`s working its way across the Gulf from the east. Ultimately, took a bit of a middle road in bringing up clouds and precip chances through the morning, but focused on putting likely PoPs more in the afternoon. For the most part, temperatures are cooler than previous days, but still brought the westernmost counties up into the middle 90s on the thought that clouds/rain will be late enough to get a bit more heating in. Still, faster timing could make this a bad move. Monday night through Wednesday... As the inverted trough works its way deeper into Texas, there becomes a divergence in the guidance as to how long upper weakness in the height field continues. The GFS builds things back a little more quickly, and while Tuesday carries relatively high rain chances, things quickly get back to resembling the diurnal seabreeze pattern. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the ridge from building back quite so quickly, and stays more wet. The GFS appears to handle the transition more awkwardly, so the forecast hedges towards the Euro. However, a deep reading of the PoP grids does show slightly lower chances well inland from the seabreeze zone in deference to a scenario with a stronger ridge. Temperatures are cooler than normal, but still in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Thursday into the weekend... Model divergence continues to spread in the extended, keeping confidence on many details low. The GFS continues to be towards the drier edge of the guidance envelope, and even cuts off seabreeze convection by early next week. The Euro, on the other hand, swings the other way, keeping more widespread rain in the forecast straight into next week. For what its worth, this is at least a step forward from yesterday, in which the GFS and Euro took turns flipping places with each other from run to run. While a fan of how the Euro handles to exit of the inverted trough earlier, am wondering if it is falling a bit towards its old trap of not being quite progressive enough in the long term. Thus, the forecast takes a bit of a middle road here - splattering some amount of PoPs through the period, but focusing more on the seabreeze zone. This may not be the most realistic of scenarios, but am aiming to be more probabilistic rather than deterministic here, as this allows for an easy pivot either way as confidence in the preferred scenario becomes higher. Have trended temperatures upwards, but the degree to which we warm will again be dependent on rain coverage. 25 && .MARINE... Light wind regime in place across the area. Deep moisture spreading into the area will lead to an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms tonight especially toward morning. May see a few short-lived waterspouts Monday and Tuesday morning. Light landbreeze possible again around Galveston Bay. Onshore flow will dominate the wind field across the area through Thursday with winds varying from southwesterly to southeasterly being mainly diurnally driven. Rain chances taper down Wednesday. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 95 76 92 75 / 20 50 30 60 30 Houston (IAH) 79 94 78 92 76 / 20 60 30 60 30 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 88 82 / 30 60 40 60 30

Watch our for these!

The western cluster is merging and hanging together as it moves below Killeen. I'm concerned about the eastern side as weakening cells may slide just east of us between CLL and Huntsville.

I saw the anvil and lightning about an hour ago. The broken line is approaching Hearne.

We could use more rainfall in CLL, although not the massive electrical storm from last week. The heat index has been about 105°F+, but highs have not hit upper 90s yet. Agree the effects of the wet ground and overestimation of some of the ridging by NWS.

Little chance of rain in south central and SE Texas until the 14th of July, and what little there is on the models is near the coast. Brutal heat wave in the SE US settles in near mid month. Monsoon season precip models - the July 4th weekend looks like a good time to begin...maybe a little extra MoJO.