LovingGulfLows

24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I keep hammering this home but the evolution of this event reminds me a great deal of 3/1/09.

Hope so. That was the last time I've experienced Thundersnow. That being said, the ULL seems to open up on most of the models as it heads southeastward.

Not with that western ridge positioning. Not seeing too much potential here personally. 

16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

TWC is so stupid. Once in a lifetime event here in coastal South. And they barely give it a mention and can't shut their pieholes about the NE!

Accuweather is worse....all they literally talk about is the NE...even when the storm here was imminent, their main graphic was Northeast totals and expectations....

The HRRR and NAM both are pretty aggressive with the backend snow tonight. Hope it verifies. I might actually get accumulating snow for the first time in almost 4 years. 

13 minutes ago, Touchet said:

The RGEM did a good job again. 

IMO the RGEM/NAM 3km combo about 24 hours out is super good. Has done well this storm and the January storm.

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I wouldn't focus on that as much as the super huge batch of moisture coming out of Louisiana and MS

It doesn't really matter to me...looking at temp profiles, I'd be rain anyway....perhaps the drier air could help me cool down some.

Pretty large dry slot going through GA right now...was this modeled?

The meso low is present on the surface maps right now. You can see a warm front pushing against the arctic front in SC and parts of NC.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php

Just now, NCSNOW said:

That's hour 16. I'd wait and see hrb17,18,19 . You'll see once precip starts cooling bottom of the column and more blue showing up. You have to cool from top down in most locations , need rates.

This is hour 18 on the 23z.

HRRR is kind of a disaster for almost all of NC...why did it warm so much???

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff.  The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. 

Well it looks like this time around, they're diverging. HRRR trending slightly cooler and NAM is trending slightly warmer. HRRR is way better for the Atlanta area than the recent 18z NAM run/

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

Warm nose over me causing the models to lessen the totals. If it ends up verifying, its going to be the 3rd storm in a row where i got warm nosed and the next county over has atleast 2 inches on the ground ):

It's called climatology. Now large parts of the Atlanta metro is even struggling with 850 mb temps. Not surprised. It looks really similar to January's storm.

9 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members a trace or nothing.

Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada.

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Dynamic, it's making its own cold air!

Seriously, the RAP did the same thing in January. Showed my area getting heavy snowfall through dynamic cooling; In the end, nothing but rain with some sleet mixed in all day and snow showers and flurries the last hour or two. It puts too much emphasis on cooling the colomn along with overestimating the rates of precipitation. There's not going to be a wide area where rates overcome 35-37 degree temperatures.

The RAP always seems colder than actuality with these winter storms. Wouldn't put much hope into it. I'd go with the NAM 3km and the HRRR for my goto hi-res models when it comes to warm noses and thermal profiles. The RGEM also tends to do fairly well. The RGEM/NAM 3km combo nailed the big bust in January.

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

Is there a warm nose near Atlanta or NE Ga ? Im new to some of this stiff so I can't really tell

Not really. Some mixing issues at the start, but quickly changes over to snow before the heaviest precip gets there so a good event for Atlanta in honesty. Of course, this is only based on the 18z 3KM NAM model run.

3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Yep and that's a much more realistic depiction of what the NAM is seeing and lines up with soundings far better. I'm just guessing here but I think Tidbits will see stuff as "snow" on the NAM maps if the surface temp is 33-35, that seems to be a common problem with the map and it did the same with the January storm earlier this year. I like the Kuchera better since it seems to show what would be snow based on soundings and a full atmosphere profile.

I-85 storm to a tee from Alabama through NC with the widest part of the axis through GA.

2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.

Yeah that's odd. Even on the projected radar of the 3KM NAM, those areas are rain pretty much through hour 60. Here's the projected radar at hour 56 on the 3km.

Not sure where that snowfall on that map is coming from for the eastern half of NC.

I love the look of the 3km NAM for my area. Snow from Hour 47-56 so far.

EDIT: Looks like snow fom Hour 47-58, then scattered snow showers and flurries after. Don't seem to have much problems with mixing or warm nose...last year, 3KM NAM showed the eventual mixing issues I would have.

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

i'd say it's a little better

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there. Everything I'm seeing says you want to either be North or West of Atlanta when this thing hits. Sucks for me and other East metro residents, but not surprised.

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet 850 and Sfc Temp panels are out.  It runs the 850 low thru the heart of GA to NC.  Looks really good for GA mtns to NC mtns...iffy just east of there

Might actually be decent for the Atlanta area this time around. In the January 2017 storm, the 850 mb low went slightly to the north of Atlanta if I recall so the warmer 850 winds are coming in from the southwest and could never change over quickly enough. If it actually goes South of Atlanta, I might be a little more confident this time around.

Literally every model shows the warmer air in Athens/East GA area....the cold air simply can't make it over the mountains fast enough during the heart of the storm.

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's banging on the heavy rates scouring out the low level warmth.  Tough forecast.

If we learned anything from January this year, warm noses are not easy to "scour out". I'd be very skeptical of models showing heavy snow through dynamic cooling.

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

My wife's sister live in Graham.  I thought about suggesting we take a trip over there tomorrow but the roads might not be safe.

Yeah that is true.

Kind of sucks that I lost so much sleep watching this system via models over the last few days and get nothing for it, but a ton of cold rain.

12 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Last year we got a little dusting on our deck.  My daughter (1 and a half at the time) had enormous fun building a little snowman and everything.  She has been asking for more snow ever since.  I have been looking forward all week to waking her up on Saturday morning with a white covering and seeing the look on her face.  Man, I am actually embarrassed to be as upset as I am, but I cannot help it.

You should take a weekend trip to the mountains with her.