Cheeznado

The last few runs of the GEFS have had about half of the members with snow in north GA at about 240, 1/3 of the EPS have small amounts. So it is on my radar barely but given how lousy this winter has been so far not optimistic- still just basically waiting for more thunderstorms.

This forum should be renamed American Winter Weather- it is amazing how posts dry up almost completely once the threat of snow/ice is over. I love snow as much as the next person but am interested in all types of weather....

I disagree, GEFS, EPS have been very consistent with at least 5" for the whole event. Would be extremely surprised if ATL only got an inch. .

Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....

Looks like a better chance of thunderstorms and even some severe weather in the south next week than snow......

Based on a pretty unified EPS and GEFS consensus of a western trough and SE ridge after this week, and given the fact that since 1930 there have only been five 1" or greater snow events in Atlanta past Feb 15, I am close to saying wait till next year here for snow after the Tues. event.

Hey, this is no longer long term, am going to start a separate thread for the post-frontal snow.

So, the Tuesday event is now within NAM range- time for a separate thread? Not really long range any more......

Er.....No. Not even close.

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong.

Almost no ensemble support for this- pattern is too progressive. Not optimistic after the Tues event.

0Z Op Euro backed off on the quick .5-1" event in ATL but most of the ensemble members and new FV3 still have us getting some minor accumulation before the cold air sets in. As I stated before, that would be a traffic nightmare.

I am getting more confident that the Atlanta area could see an impactful event next Tuesday now that the Euro has come on board- even if it only an inch- with the temps falling quickly into the 20s by evening that would create a nightmare road scenario.

Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta.

The main threat I am seeing on the GEFS is a week from late Monday/Tuesday, not that much hope for more than a dusting with the Saturday system IMO.

For Atlanta, the Euro ensembles are still mostly saying no but the GEFS is on board with the majority of members showing at least 1 inch

I think that is exactly what is happening.

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

Since here in ATL we will just get a nasty cold rain, I plan to travel up to the AVL area, the ensembles have been incredibly consistent with some very hefty totals, check out the 06Z ensembles- 14 members with 20" or more.

This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members a trace or nothing.

This NAM trend is not surprising, just coming to the GEFS and EPS, a general 1-3" event here in GA, mainly from here SW. It was never going to stick much anyway, its early Dec for pity's sake, so no cliff diving here since I was suspicious of a big event all along. If I get a nice dusting to an inch or two on the grass it will be a bonus considering how much more of the winter is left.

Yep. 2-3" from Atlanta west.

EPS:

Based on everything I see, from over half of the GEFS members with at least 1" here, some with 5" +, the Euro ensemble mean being over 1", the new very impressive NAM- I think we see snow almost for sure now, some accumulations possible on grass, cars etc area. Fingers crossed for the NAM to be right, but need to see more evidence, but the trends are favorable right now for it at least not being a total bust.

All-time U.S. low temperature record threatened? The coldest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. was a -80°F (-62.2°C) reading from Prospect Creek, AK (about 180 miles north of Fairbanks) on January 23, 1971. A weather station just a few miles from Prospect Creek, the Jim River DOT site, appears to have recorded a low temperature between -78°F and -79°F Saturday morning (January 28, 2012), shortly before the weather station lost power. Keeping the power going at -70 is very tough, and it is not a surprise to see that the station lost power during this extraordinary cold snap. Power just returned this morning to the site, where the temperature was -66°F at 7 am AKST. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt is corresponding with Alaska's state climatologist to get more information on whether the data during the power outage will be recoverable, and how reliable these near-record low temperature might be. http://www.wundergro...sters/show.html