TheManWithNoFace

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Take a look at the visible satellite in the midwest and lower Canada-almost no snowcover which just makes it warmer

Yeah I thought about that yesterday. It was a stiff northwest wind, but it didn't have that bite to it that you'd expect on the backend of a winter storm with a 290 vector. I quickly realized "it's because the source region isn't cold."

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Models did have the band.  They were not able to resolve the very high rates and amounts for those under the most intense part of it.  FWIW this banding feature was visible on radar out in the Midwest yesterday.  I even commented yesterday evening that it looked like most of the snow with the event would occur at those locations in the band and that it would be near I78 as per the models.  It looks like the band actually set up just a bit south of I78.  Congrats to those who were in the JP zone.

Really nice observation and call. 

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Unbelievable. This will raise this winter a full letter grade for me. 

Same. I know it is hyperlocal to me in Hunterdon County, but now I'm over 20" for the season. After last year, and the way things looked headed into January, I will take it and run. Probably a C+ winter but feels like a B+ in context.

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

not a clipper, it's a bowling ball type midlat cyclone

Yeah I agree this is an Arctic FROPA wave on the southern edge of a PV lobe with a sfc low originating over the 4 corners. I'd never describe this as an Alberta Clipper.

Anyone got a read on temps for the last week of March/1st week of April?

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

This is giving me major memories of tracking and enjoying the big ones 

It was nice to get a taste. Who knows what kind've psych damage we would've collectively suffered if we really went 0-fer the winter.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

energy you mean

I hate when people say "oomph"

 

I hate your refusal to use multiquote but maybe we should reserve our opinions of each other's habits for banter.

It's going to be interesting to see what kind of lift the 2nd batch in CPA will have. I have a hunch our atmospheric regime sinks a bit south of 80, and we sleet or we graupel a bit towards midnight. Not sure there's enough "oomph" in batch 2 to get the higher range of the totals for CNJ and parts of NNJ.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models seem to converging in the idea that the heaviest rains over the next week will favor areas to our south and east. So if this is correct, then we may need to wait for the tropics to become active to end the drought. This has been the  driest July 1st to August 11th on record at places like Newark.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Aug 11	Missing Count
1	2022-08-11	1.17	0
2	1998-08-11	1.53	0
3	1966-08-11	1.69	0
4	1999-08-11	1.73	0
5	1932-08-11	1.78	0
6	1957-08-11	1.91	0
7	2010-08-11	2.03	0
8	2002-08-11	2.40	0
9	1939-08-11	2.61	0
10	2001-08-11	2.73	0

And that map doesn't look very different if you push the end date to 240hr

This is one of those evenings where those dumbass nam3k radar depictions where cells drift and Fujiwara around each other.kindve actually happens. 

I bet fruits- tomatoes, strawberries, even some orchard fruits...wine grapes, around the Hillsborough area are probably coming in outrageously flavorful. 

Edison to Ewing and points 15mi n&w still screwed

Gfs now showing .75 in for NJ over the next 15 days

I'll believe it when I see it. 

21 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Where in town are you? Behind my back fence is an area thats usually wet, looks like the moon too now.

I'm behind Readington Brewery and "hop farm"

Where I am in Branchburg, my redbud and cherry are yellowing out. It looks like the moon surface

There is no relief on the ten day qpf projections for central NJ. 

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm starting to notice that with some trees too, and of course the grass is burning out. Everything is under stress because it has been so dry. I see 12z NAM and HRRR have some pretty good storms tomorrow. Really hoping we get some heavy rain tomorrow.

Yeah there should be a stripe of 1/2" somewhere in NJ tomorrow but it's not going to be widespread enough to help everyone. I drove the route12 circle today. Something killed all the big trees in the circle and the grass is so brown, you could think it was mid winter on that patch of ground. 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Really? I haven't noticed that anywhere besides small shrubs.  

Yeah seeing some Walnuts and Cherries signalling stress

Trees starting to lose leaves to lack of rain in the Hunterdon area. 

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tomorrow morning could be interesting 

Sneak attack

NAM seems to be the only model with anything north of 195 tomorrow. 

20 hours ago, FPizz said:

Must be, haha.  Readington is about a half mile from me in Branchburg

Ok we're definitely talking about the same crack since I live on the south side of town. I'm by Vacchiano. 

56 minutes ago, FPizz said:

little over .5 here.  About 2am one of the loudest thunders I've ever heard woke me up.  It sounded like a bomb landed in my back yard. 

Are we neighbors? Same thing happened to me in Readington. 

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks like cutting down tree of heaven is the best thing we can do

https://www.audubon.org/news/birds-are-one-line-defense-against-dreaded-spotted-lanternflies

There's nothing you can do unless if you live in a city and there's not enough alternative host plants. The SLF have a list a dozen trees long. They love walnuts and will colonize maples. Can't cut all them down 

On 5/29/2022 at 12:53 PM, LibertyBell said:

They're here!  I saw them on Friday when I was gardening.  Three of them so far.

Is there a particular type of tree they go for? There haven't been any at my other house in the Poconos--  is that because of elevation or a type of tree that isn't present there?  I noticed they're in the lower elevations near Wilkes Barre, so you could say it's an elevation thing, but up on the mountain, I've never seen them, even in the hottest part of summer.  So maybe the trees they like aren't up there?

 

Where do you live that you aren't up to speed on SLF? They've overrun most of NJ and EPA and all our media has been talking about them for years. The depts of ag have run major info campaigns about them too.