Wannabehippie

Here in Astoria the streets are clear, the sidewalks are mostly just wet, few spots of snow where it piled up more because it fell off of trees. Good snowball making snow. Packs real well. I am guessing 10 or 11:1 ratios. Temps hovered around 30 degrees all night, so we didn't get that real light fluffy snow you might get with temps in the 20's.

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ

Bring those totals down near the coast, NYC closer to an 8:1 ratio given the mixing issues, and borderline temps IMHO.

17 hours ago, dseagull said:

Fascinating article.  Equally terrifying if it were to verify.  Unfortunately, most of us have read and consumed a myriad of similar "scary" articles that have not verified over the past 3-5 decades.   While this could be the tipping point, this article is only highlighting one of many potential studies that have resulted in any number of potentially devastating outcomes.  

 

This is where sensationalism comes into play.   There also exists a tipping point for where people no longer pay attention to every single prediction or publication.   CNN is still somewhat mainstream, although part of a dying type of "journalism."   Similar to the "boy who cried wolf," many media outlets have overplayed their hands with sensationalism (in an effort to gain clicks or views for advertising profits,) and as a result, reach fewer and fewer members of an audience that is growing skeptical.  

 

Having offered that perspective, I will admit that I am inclined to believe that ocean currents and the rate at which gyres are able to reach and maintain stability, PROBABLY have the most rapid and drastic effects on the climate of our earth.  Our oceans (as sinks,) and mediums of thermal energy, are responsible for the vast majority of weather on earth.  When the red flags go up, we need to invest resources to determine all possible outcomes. 

 

This sudden of a climate disaster is more in line with other types of geological extinction events.  Many scientists have always theorized that this very scenario is responsible for most of the sudden climate swings, not unlike an impact from a large meteor or other space object.  

 

If this sort of cataclysmic even were to verify, there is unlikely any way to prepare for it effectively.  The tipping point, would ultimately become an extinction event for a large swatch of the world's population.  

 

Or... this could be just another sensational study and article, following a host of others.  This doest mean that we should write it off, but rather delve into the scenario, and scrutinize it carefully.   It has very meaningful merit, regardless.  

The link to the full study that Don posted above is very interesting, once you get past some of the high level math that they discuss in it.

I think this is the best place to post this article, and hear what everyone thinks about it.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-weather-climate/index.html

Been snowing lightly in Astoria since this AM. Not much is getting on the sidewalks and roads due to the rate of snowfall, plus all the salt that has been spread around. Grassy areas, and areas that had snow piled from the storm earlier this week are seeing accumulation, but not very much. The sun is even weakly showing thru the clouds at times.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? The trend is shifting west slightly 

The trend this winter has been no snow for NYC.

I am going with the trend is your friend. The trend has been no snow for NYC and points east. I say no snow for the Tuesday event, other than maybe a coating, for NYC.
 

I need Tuesday event to be delayed, or be a minor event so I can get back in to LGA from Florida. 

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Better question is why would you want it anyway... it'll be washed away almost immediately, so might as well keep the historic snowless streak going as long as possible.

That is my thought as well. Get to 2 full  years of no snow, then we can get some snow.

Temps above freezing throughout the storm on latest NAM12k 0z run, starting at 15z Saturday. It won't let me post the image, as it is "too big".

4 hours ago, mannynyc said:

I agree, mood flakes at the very best. Not enough energy left for those areas to see a heavy snow that might accumulate.

4 hours ago, David-LI said:

GFS with stronger system and more backend snow for city metro

 

Maybe aloft as snow, but the soundings at the mid, low level are too warm IMHO.

51 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Interesting evolution with this event as shown on the 12z NAM.  Front end thump Saturday afternoon into the evening for areas to the north and west and then most areas that had snow go to light rain/ice and sleet.  Most areas including the coast go back to snow later Sunday as the trailing vort max comes in.

Might be too late by then to get any real accumulation, unless it can come down real hard and fast in 2-3 hours.

3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Eastbound Belt Parkway under the LIRR/North Conduit Av closed due to flooding.

Doesn't that area flood even in fairly light rains?

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sure but the farmers almanacs forecasts are crap

I buy the Old Farmer's Almanac yearly. Mainly for the articles on gardening, etc. Some really interesting stuff in there. I treat the weather prediction part as entertainment. Fun to see how wrong they are, then follow up the following year when they claim an "80% accuracy".

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

well as you get older in life things do not work like they use to....

At 53 I am no kid.

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

blustery cold morning here in the city.. i should have worn gloves my hands were so cold...

I went out without a jacket. You must be affected by the colder, winter temps than me. Temps in 50s don't seem too bad to me. But then again, if temps get in to mid 60s I probably will be wearing shorts.

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Yeah that pretty much answers my question. Oys

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will slowly warm starting tomorrow.Readings will generally reach the lower and middle 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and middle and upper 60s across southern New Jersey southward.

Looking farther ahead, the probability of a moderate or significant rain and wind storm next weekend has increased. The storm will likely be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.688 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

More coastal flooding, plus flash flooding out of this system? The ground right now is absolutely saturated.

15 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

4.16” for the day and about 10 gallons shop-vac’d out of the basement so far. 

10 gallons. If that is it, you got off light. 

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

No I believe it's 16"

Yes you are correct. 16.85 inches in September 1882. 
If we got 8" in CP today, we would come close to the record. 

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

10.6 for the month as of 9am. Could get to a foot

That certainly would break the September record for rainfall. Current record is 11.85" of rain for the month.

2 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

Just got this alert on my phone. Severe flooding on the BQE. Incredible rainfall rates. Haven’t seen this since Ida. 

4 feet on the BQE? Yikes. The rain fall rates right now must be incredible.
I don't think we will break the all time record for rain for the month of September with this system, plus the 8"+ we had before it. But we probably will hit the 2nd most for the month. 

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just this through noon

That is some pretty hefty rain fall, just thru noon. And it is supposed to go another 18 hours after that, with varying intensity obviously, right?

Central park has seen 8"+ so far in September. Monthly record is something like 16.85" in I believe 1882. Do we have a shot at breaking that record with all the precip that is headed our way tonight, tomorrow, and in to Saturday AM?

Is the prevailing thought that Ophelia will be downgraded on the next advisory? Ophelia has been a huge rainmaker up and down the coast. But it doesn't look like the wind was a major factor for the most part.