Tim from Springfield (IL)

Huge change this afternoon to tomorrow's Day 2 slight, now it covers basically STL eastward to the Mid-Atlantic, including roughly I-72 southward in Illinois: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...The Ohio Valley Region and vicinity... Morning convection -- and possibly some accompanying severe potential -- should be ongoing over the Ohio vicinity, and will shift southeastward across the central Appalachians through the morning in tandem with a mid-level vort max. Subsidence aloft in the wake of this feature -- within background ridging -- should maintain a capping inversion, which should hinder new convective development through the day ahead of a weak/advancing front/wind shift, associated with the next in a series of mid-level vorticity maxima progressing through west-northwesterly flow aloft. At this time, degree and timing of new storm development over the Ohio Valley remains quite uncertain, but current thinking is that scattered to isolated storms should develop along the weak boundary, from lower Michigan southwestward to Missouri, with the first storms possibly initiating by around sunset. Convection would then spread east-southeastward with time across the Ohio Valley states, gradually increasing in coverage with time. Given steep lapse rates aloft, instability will support vigorous updrafts -- aided by the moderately strong west-northwesterlies through a deep layer. Along with potential for large hail, damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can grow upscale locally into line segments/clusters. The storms should continue through the overnight hours in an east-northeast to west-southwest band, crossing the central Appalachians and possibly moving into the Tennessee Valley through the end of the period.

Not sure if the next three days warrant a separate severe thread but this was prompted by huge changes this afternoon to tomorrow's Day 2 outlook. The narrow marginal risk for today from the LOT CWA to NW OH remains intact at this time. Also a marginal in C/W Minnesota too: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Great Lakes including portions of IL/IN/OH and Lower MI... Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening, initially across northern Illinois and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity, and subsequently expand and develop eastward across other parts of the region through the overnight. This activity will be focused along/just north of a northward-advancing warm front as low-level warm/moist advection increases. In an environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in the presence of 30-45 kt effective-shear, the more robust elevated updrafts may produce occasionally severe hail. A seemingly less certain risk of locally damaging winds cannot be ruled out, particularly if storm mergers/organization occurs in immediate proximity of the surface warm front. ...Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by evening across parts of the region, influenced by weak height falls and increasing warm advection related to an amplifying trough over the Canadian prairies. While the overall environment will not be particularly moist, given steep mid-level lapse rates and ample shear through the cloud-bearing layer, it is conceivable that a couple of the stronger storms could produce hail to near severe levels tonight.

IMO, even the wording of both the local area forecast for Sangamon County and their point-and-click for my location (Chatham, IL) both make it appear that ILX doesn't seem impressed about this storm threat, at least for this area. Their current Sangamon County forecast for tomorrow: "Warmer. Rain showers and thunderstorms." No mention of severe yet. Point and click only shows the generic "showers and thunderstorms" with no severe mention either. That doesn't sound like "enhanced/moderate risk for severe" to me. It was worse earlier today: "Rain showers and some thunderstorms." That especially doesn't scream "severe" to me; more like a "few showers with a rumble of thunder or two." Either ILX's forecasting is a joke, or they're seeing something for this area that we and the other models/NWS offices are not. I'm sure tomorrow's morning ILX HWO will have the "conference call for emergency managers" statement at the end of the outlook, for sometime late in the morning for areas in at least the Enhanced risk. Maybe even some of the Slight areas too. Also, how much stock does anyone on here take in local TV weathercast "Futurecast radars." None of the ones I've seen on the three major newscasts in the Springfield/Decatur/Champaign market at 6PM seemed to put much activity (other than a few isolated cells) in the current MDT/hatched TOR area. It looked as if they wanted to get more isolated storms going roughly along and east of a STL-LaSalle line, with some intensifying and expanding in size. Not impressed with what I saw on local news tonight, even though they were emphasizing SPC's moderate risk prediction.

The Northern IL Severe Weather blog's take on Saturday, including an interesting map: https://nilsevereweather.weebly.com/blogs-weather-updates/severe-weather-threat-increasing-across-illinois-on-saturday-all-hazards-possible-nisw?fbclid=IwAR3Fl2HpqFhOeBgOlPMxSpq_jdqNQJaRwm5oWerPGRYns_cBgLWV7S-s_ag The blogger also linked to the following SPC map image, including a radar image of long-tracked cells tracking straight northeast west and north of Peoria. With a serious-looking long-tracked cell shown from west of Canton to LaSalle-Peru. Plus some nasty cells over and just northeast of PIA:

I went ahead and started a new thread for the late-week threats here in the sub, especially what may be the main event Saturday:

Going to start a separate thread for the current end-of-week severe threats, especially what may be the big show in IL on Saturday (after the rare Day 3 afternoon update): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Also, the 2:49 CDT Day 1 now has a slight entering the STL Metro East area in IL, with a narrow hatched hail area from E KS to E MO: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Most of the sub is in Marginal for Day 2 at this time: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

ILX with the evening forecasts just extended the WWA to the I-55 corridor, including Springfield, Lincoln, and Bloomington. Snow/sleet/freezing rain mix in Chatham (10 miles southwest of State Capitol) now. Glaze of snow and sleet on ground now. Reports of roads starting to get slick, and Google Maps traffic map showing slow go on I-55 and I-72 here in Sangamon County. MIxed precip + Saturday night + lackadaisical snow/ice removal in Springfield area in recent years = Travel unadvisable in SPI tonight

Last night Flash Flood Watches were posted in the Peoria area and in much of northern Illinois for the threat of additional heavy rains on top of saturated soil from Friday's deluge. Looks like ILX dropped the ball completely on what happened in the Springfield area overnight (and early yesterday morning too). At least 2+ inches (and some reports of even higher) and flooded roads early this morning in the SPI area. And not a single flood watch, warning, or advisory issued for Sangamon County. Some of the precip reports: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 929 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW SPRINGFIELD 39.83N 89.68W 09/29/2019 M3.25 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W SPRINGFIELD 39.80N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M3.21 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W RIVERTON 39.85N 89.58W 09/29/2019 M3.15 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSE PETERSBURG 39.92N 89.80W 09/29/2019 M3.09 INCH MENARD IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ATHENS 39.98N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M3.04 INCH MENARD IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W EDINBURG 39.66N 89.45W 09/29/2019 M2.93 INCH CHRISTIAN IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W SPRINGFIELD 39.80N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M2.88 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SE RIVERTON 39.85N 89.54W 09/29/2019 M2.82 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSE SPRINGFIELD 39.71N 89.59W 09/29/2019 M2.73 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E CHATHAM 39.67N 89.66W 09/29/2019 M2.29 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W LINCOLN 40.15N 89.40W 09/29/2019 M2.10 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS

Heavy rains and flash flooding from IMO freak thunderstorms in the SPI area from roughly 2-7AM Sunday morning. Chatham, just southwest of Springfield may have had upwards of at least 7 inches of rain. https://www.sj-r.com/news/20190901/storms-sock-springfield-area-early-sunday-morning

I don't usually like to start a severe thread, and don't mean to be late to the party on today's event either, but I started a new catch-all thread starting with today/tonight's action (including another MD in IA/N IL), going to early Wednesday: