West Point, NY

I'm going to have to try that or maybe the bolts on outside of the housing will loosen the auger enough that I can pull it out. It's thick so it didn't wrap around. Only stuck underneath

You know what sucks? When you take your blower out and the auger grabs the thick rubber mat in front of your steps going up to your front porch and it gets stick underneath the blades and you can't pull the shit out... Then you still have to shovel the sleet

Large flakes starting to mix back in as rates pick up

I just flipped a few minutes ago also.

Light snow, small flakes... Cornwall on Hudson.. 21/9

While I am ready to fall on the sword here for the freezing rain that did in fact make it up through Orange County a few hours ago with this insane southerly jet banging into an entrenched Arctic dome, as I stated yesterday the storm itself would not come into NNJ/NYC/LI and up into SW CT as modeled. Judging by wind direction obs. The closest low is passing from around Philly and going out into the water around LBI. Winds on LI have turned NE so it's going below them out to CC as I thought. This storm too will pass and I still haven't seen a low cut up into an entrenched Arctic dome in the HV when there was an exit off the coast of SNJ available.

Maybe low in PA is Walts low on the warm front that delays the advance North as it moves East

LOL

I still see a wall of snow to DC

When it happens.. No excuses. Beauty of weather is its not over till fat lady sings. If most of Orange County wind up with Snow/Sleet rather than ZR, I win. If not.... I've seen something new.

I'd be dead. LOL. My best memory was they had a short time where they took questions from listeners and answered them on the radio. I sent in a letter asking why lines of thunderstorms coming out of the Poconos often split in 2 crossing NJ only to consolidate again into 1 line over LI. A week later they said my name on the radio and answered my question. I felt special...

LOL. Used to know if the wind backed around from a certain direction in front of my house if it would stay snow or flip. Life was simple and I had a detachable radio shack red bike radio that attached to the handle and a little transistor weather radio where an actual meteorologist on KWO35 would update the loop at 11am, 5pm etc and I would anxiously listen to the same damn loop sometimes for a half hour until they updated

I know and can live with the storm being a bust. It just makes no sense to me why the storm would climb so far north with an entrenched Arctic dome not going anywhere. Its not being blocked from sliding further underneath where there is less resistance. While I realize storms like to attack Arctic domes, they usually succeed as the high retreats. This high is in a stand your ground and suppress position. Hard to argue with the easterly component to the wind now from NYC South but the setup makes no sense to me.

I am going on 55 yrs old and I can not ever remember a storm with arctic, low dew air banked just to our NW, N and over NNE, where a storm angling up from the SW came across PA - NNJ and rode across LI. Until this shows me it can happen, I will continue to call BS. The NW side has been eroding slowly SE the past few hours instead of blossoming out like a storm with a northerly track would feature. I will gladly eat humble pie tomorrow if this does not correct South. Not being a weenie. Just going by what I have seen happen all my life since I sat on a metal milk box on my front stoop in Brooklyn in the 1970s watching cirrus and wind direction to predict the weather days in advance at the tender age of 10.

The whole NW fringe of this storm from the OV to Massena is pushing SE. WSW for 10 inches in Niagara Frontier up to Watertown are going to bust if this trend continues

That's why I see this thing going across Trenton and out across the Cape. Not going up into the cold press with easy way out

The other thing we have going for us is the lowest dews are to our North and NW not NE. It is in a position to keep pushing rather than be eroded by retreating to the NE as is often the case with highs up over Maine. It wouldn't take much of a last min tick SE to make this a 6-8 dump of snow followed by a few inches of Sleet to bulletproof the pack

True. Anyway that single digit dew point air is pushing down the Hudson. Just can't see primarily a Sleet fest not big zr North of 17.

If you put out a forecast at 530 am and it hits it while dropping in under an hour, your forecast should have a down arrow next to it and put the mid afternoon temp there

If you look at Albany, they were at 25 at 6:25 am they have dropped and leveled off at 18 with the limited daytime heating. Dews are down to 6 and still dropping. Can't see how it's not all Snow/Pl North of NB Bridge. Probably to Bear Mtn Bridge before real freezing rain issues IMO. That Arctic air is pushing down the Hudson. Albanys projected high is 25. We will see it bust.

Note how the clusters are to the South of that black line. It will run South of it. Noise for the City, LI, S&W but more important for Sussex, Orange, Putnam and WCT in the Rt 84 corridor

Like I just posted in the main thread, any model that cuts this up into NYS or CT for that matter is wrong. It will go ENE from NJ out toward CC. The air to the North is a brick wall of sub zero Temps pressing down. While rich with moisture, this is not a strong low. If it passes just S of NYC, you will have a freezing rain issue in Putnam after a good dump ofsome snow and a lot of Sleet. If it comes off South Jersey it would probably be a more snow/sleet deal vs freezing rain. My gut still says this tics a bit South at the end once the magnatude of the cold is realized by models that don't start with GFS

This is not going inland like the GFS depicts. It will ride ENE just South of the city, and out towards CC. Too close for a frozen event along the coast but Sussex and particularly Orange have no chance of this going to plain rain. Temps will not get out of the 20s with thr Northerly drain. There is a wall of below zero air to our North. To think that a low that's not close to being a bomb at our latitude will cut up into that wall of dense cold is just plain silly regardless of what any model says. There is nothing stopping it from sliding out off NJ and that is what it will do. If anything 12z models will tick a bit South as the cold will overperform to our North.

So your expertise as a keyboard warrior says. Time will tell.

And if we do you will say it's a reaction to GW anyway. You will never be the tool...