anthonyweather

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The HRRR has held steady in its past few runs instead of continuing to trend south. Latest run has 6-9” for most of us with snow still falling everywhere.

So I know the NWS relies heavily on the HREF. So here is the latest HREF.. Maybe why they arent changing their forecast? Only thing I can think of 

This is a real nailbiter Jesus. Gonna have to live and die with the radar I suppose


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Man 3/4 of PA is in for a rude awakening



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If the NAM comes as far south as the RAP then it’s time to start worrying a little. This thing isn’t gonna miss us like it might in Scranton, but another sizable shift south leaves us with 2-4” or 3-6” instead of 6-10”+.

Zoomed in HRRR. I think the entire subforum would be happy with this!

Unless the mesos go way SE I’m not putting any stock in the Euro at all. Under 24 hours it’s typically better to look at mesos than globals.

Latest Srefs.  I would think the Nams hold in light of these.

Insane shift on GFS and euro. Has to bump a touch N at 12z right?!


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You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.

Hoping like hell I wake up to this trend having stuck and a Winter Storm Warning for Bethlehem 

You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.

Gfs




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NAM big step back compared to 18z run. 

The NAM showed total positive snow depth accumulations meeting or exceeding  warning criteria  for the LV  first the time in several years in  tonight's run  This is a promising trend that the winter storm watch may be upgraded to an actual warning before the snow event even actually occurs and not during the event . That has not happened in 2-3 years. To me, that is what I have been waiting for this entire year.  Once that warning  is issued- it can snow a foot or more- I really do not care about being too specific on totals. I think many of us are waiting for the magical warning to be issued too. We have all waited way too long.

Still thinking that 8-14 has the opportunity to slide south maybe 20-30 miles

This one is not our storm. We will be lucky to hit 2”. Our friends to the south are hitting the jackpot.


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Man I hope they are on to something 

Mt holly yet again increased the Lehigh valley.

I don’t get it lol


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18z icon.


Looking like 1-2” area wide but what do I know


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I’m in the direct bullseye. 5 to 6 expectation set.

Yeah next week when it grows spring like this will be long forgotten
 

Were losing this inch by inch
 

18z NAM continues the inching south